VORONIN-SMIRNOV: THE MEETING THAT DIDN'T

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000958

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018
TAGS: PBTS PREL PINR RU MD
SUBJECT: VORONIN-SMIRNOV: THE MEETING THAT DIDN'T
HAPPEN

Classified By: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Although a Voronin-Smirnov
meeting was scheduled for September 25, on
September 24 SmirnovQs press office announced
that the meeting would be postponed because the
sides could not agree upon a venue. The
Transnistrian side attempted to blame the GOM for
Chisinau's inflexibility, but President Voronin
demonstrated his openness to compromise by
expressing his willingness to come to Tiraspol to
meet. Surprised by the cancellation of the
Voronin-Smirnov meeting, Russian chief negotiator
Nesterushkin arrived in Chisinau on September 25
and plans to meet with Smirnov and the GOM to
clarify the situation. End Summary.

No Venue, No Meeting
--------------


2. (C) At a September 24 reception, Transnistrian
Acting "Foreign Minister" Yastrebchak explained
to Ambassador, DCM and Pol/Econ Chief that the
meeting had been postponed because of an
inability to find a mutually acceptable venue.
Yastrebchak said that the Transnistrian side had
proposed that the meeting be held in Bendery, but
Chisinau had proposed Aneni Noi, a small town on
the right bank about halfway between Chisinau and
Tiraspol. Smirnov expressed concerns that he
might be arrested if he ventured that far onto
right-bank territory. Then discussions on venue
fell apart.


3. (C) Yastrebchak explained that Smirnov had
promised the Russians that he would arrange a
bilateral meeting with President Voronin. The
Transnistrian side had called several times and
proposed various dates that had been rejected.
After finally reaching agreement on a date, no
compromise could be found on location. Partially
in jest, Yastrebchak suggested that perhaps the
5-plus-2 negotiators and observers could help
arrange other locations, such as Odessa, Vienna,
or even New York. In a calm and reasonable
manner, Yastrebchak explained that the
Transnistrian side was willing to meet, but put
the blame on Chisinau for inflexibility in
compromising on a location.

Litskai Opines that Smirnov has Lost
--------------


4. (C) Meanwhile, in a separate conversation at
the reception, former "Foreign Minister" Valery
Litskai opined that "Smirnov had lost the game."
The Russians had a vested interest in this
process, he said, and Smirnov would cause
Russia's discontent with his foot-dragging.
Smirnov did not fool anybody by using ridiculous
pretexts on location and security concerns to
hide his unwillingness to meet, opined Litskai.


5. (C) Litskai said that Yastrebchak had been
invited to Russia the previous week to encourage
him and the Transnistrian administration to
participate constructively in the talks. As
Smirnov had failed to justify Russia's trust, in
Litskai's opinion, Shevchuk was invited to Moscow
to meet with Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory
Karasin. Litskai suggested that this was a clear
signal of the Kremlin's discontent with Smirnov.
Litskai was concerned that as a result the
Ukrainians could seize the Russian initiative.
The new Ukrainian negotiator Kryzhanovski had
already proposed to host a possible meeting of
the left- and right-bank leaders in Odessa.

GOM Rejects Smirnov's Concerns, Proposes Tiraspol
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Following the official statement of the
Transnistrian authorities, the Ministry of
Reintegration issued its own release on the issue
on September 24. The Ministry labeled as absurd
Smirnov's security concerns about possible
arrest, and reiterated its readiness to continue
direct contacts with Tiraspol representatives.
In a September 25 meeting Minister of

CHISINAU 00000958 002 OF 002


Reintegration Sova told Poloff that President
Voronin had told Sova to release an official
statement that, because Smirnov's "security
concerns" and unwillingness to come to the right
bank, President Voronin was willing to meet with
Smirnov in Tiraspol. Following a meeting with
OSCE Ambassador Remler, Sova put out a press
release on September 25, expressing Voronin's
willingness to meet Smirnov in Tiraspol.

Nesterushkin Flies to Chisinau to Clarify
--------------


7. (C) Surprised by the turn of events that led
to cancellation of the Russian-inspired Smirnov-
Voronin meeting, Russian negotiator Nesterushkin
flew to Chisinau on September 25 with the
intention of clarifying the situation.
Nesterushkin plans to meet on September 25 and 26
first with Smirnov and later with Sova.

Comment: Two Sides to the Story
--------------


8. (C) Each side would like to appear like the
flexible and reasonable one, and blame the other
side for foot-dragging. The issue now is not one
of blame, but of moving forward constructively.
Though there are debates about Russian intentions
in pushing for 1-plus-1 and 2-plus-1 meetings,
the Moldova remains committed to formal
negotiations only in the 5-plus-2 format. It
seems that Russian pressure has increased upon
Transnistria to give up the dream of
independence. Smirnov's efforts to stall may be
the result of his concerns that Russia is
tightening the noose, and that a process has been
unleashed that will force him to publicly abandon
his long-term dream of Transnistrian
independence. Indeed, Yastrebchak's comments to
Ambassador seemed to reflect a new realism about
the impossibility of independence.

CHAUDHRY