AFTER FIVE MONTHS GAGAUZ PEOPLES'

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000855

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MD
SUBJECT: AFTER FIVE MONTHS GAGAUZ PEOPLES'
ASSEMBLY REACHES CONSENSUS ON SPEAKER

Ref: Chisinau 0711

Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect
Accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: Five months after Peoples'
Assembly (PA) elections in Gagauzia, and after
five attempts to elect a Speaker, PA members,
including most of the Communists, elected a PA
Speaker by a comfortable majority. The
apparently friendly final capitulation by the
Party of Communists finally ended the
manoeuvring for legislative power in Gagauzia.
With the election of the Speaker concluded, the
Gagauz legislature can now get on with its work.
End Summary.

True Colors Revealed in Votes for Speaker
--------------


2. (SBU) Gagauzia's electorate was divided into
three main forces Q those supporting Bashkan
Formuzal, those in favor of Comrat Mayor Dudoglo
and supporters of the Party of Communists
(PCRM). First- and second-round voting in March
yielded results that bore no relationship to the
actual loyalties or voting intentions of the 35
members of the PA (MPAs): election winners
included 10 Communists (PCRM),one from the
Democratic party, one from the Social Democrats,
two from Ravnopravie, and 21 independents.
Voting for Speaker, which did not begin until
June 12, showed a pattern of alliances after
three months of maneuvering: 17 MPAs voting
with the PCRM, and the other 18 voting as a
coalition between supporters of Gagauz Governor
Mikhail Formuzal and followers of Comrat Mayor
Nicolai Dudoglo. (The 18 include eight declared
for Formuzal, six for Dudoglo, and four members
of Dumitru Braghis's Democratic Party.) The
ability of Formuzal and Dudoglo to overcome
their former enmity to work together against the
Communists was the first step in Gagauz
coalition-building.


3. (SBU) The almost-final winner for the job as
Speaker was Dudoglo's sister, Ana Harmalenco,
who won two July votes with an 18-17 majority
each time. After fighting rear-guard actions
that included boycotts and lawsuits, the
Communist minority capitulated on July 31 and
the PA gave Harmalenco all 30 votes of the MPAs
present. Damien Caraseni, leader of the PCRM
faction, was elected Deputy Speaker. Further
harmony broke out shortly thereafter when
President Voronin met Harmalenco and commended
the Gagauz people on achieving a consensus and
thus contributing to the development of the
region. Moldova's Parliamentary Speaker Marian
Lupu, also present at the meeting, stressed the
importance of cooperation between the two
legislatures. Harlamenco promised cooperation
with Chisinau.

Comment: Why This Outbreak of Good Will?
--------------


4. (SBU) It is not clear why peace and harmony
finally made its appearance on the Gagauz
political stage. President and PCRM chief
Voronin, distracted by floods, may have tired of
the wrangling and been in a sufficiently
philosophic mood to make peace with his
adversaries. With only 4.2% of Moldova's
population, Gagauzia is sufficiently vote-poor
for the PCRM to take the high road and yield
graciously. It is equally possible that, given
the fractious nature of Moldovan coalition
politics, Voronin decided that could wait for
the Formuzal and Dudoglo factions to split at
some time in the future. After all, he needs
only one vote from the non-Communist alliance to
achieve a majority. This watch-and-wait
strategy served the Communists well in Chisinau
(reftel),where the PCRM turned defectors into
allies and won control of City Hall, and may
work again. End comment.


CHISINAU 00000855 002 OF 002


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