PRESIDENT VORONIN WANTS 5-PLUS-2

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000787

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS KWMN MD
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT VORONIN WANTS 5-PLUS-2
PROGRESS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Rudolf V. Perina for reasons 1.4(b)
and (d)


1. (C) In a July 21 bilateral meeting with DAS Merkel before the
start of 3-plus-2, President Voronin pressed for getting the
negotiators to consider the Moldovan package proposal on
Transnistria's status. Voronin believes that Russian President
Medvedev personally wants to solve the Transnistria problem, but does
not trust the Russian approach of trying to divert away from
5-plus-2. Voronin said he would not sign any agreement outside of
the international 5-plus-2 process, and acknowledged that any
settlement could only succeed with international support. On
bilateral issues, Voronin noted he would chair a very tough meeting
on TIP in which he would ensure involvement of more government
agencies in fighting trafficking. He also said that he was unable to
play a more active role in GUAM because he needed Russian support on
Transnistria. End Summary.

5-plus-2 Needs a Document on the Table
--------------


2. (C) Voronin said that he was tired of foot-dragging in 5-plus-2
and felt that the time had come for formal talks on the package
proposal to resolve Transnistria's status. As a majority of the
5-plus-2 partners -- the U.S., EU, Ukraine, OSCE and Moldova -- all
supported resuming talks, Voronin suggested that this group could
take the lead in pushing for a formal 5-plus-2 meeting.


3. (C) President Voronin thanked the USG for giving its written
comments on the Moldovan package proposal. Though Moldova had
provided these documents to all 5-plus-2 partners except
Transnistria, Voronin said that no other member had responded in
writing. President Voronin said he would like to receive a written
response from the EU, OSCE and Ukraine. However, the president
lamented that he did not even know what Moscow is thinking about the
package. The President's advisor said that the EU had provided
Moldova with verbal comments. DAS Merkel said he planned to visit
Moscow, where he would try to get a better understanding of the
Russian position and encourage movement.


4. (C) DAS Merkel said he believed that the other partners supported
the approach outlined in the package, and he hoped to clarify their
positions during the current round of talks. Merkel continued by
underlining that for 5-plus-2 talks to be successful there must be a
document on the table. DAS Merkel said he believed it necessary to
sharpen the focus of what is expected from 5-plus-2.


5. (C) Voronin said that he wanted a future 5-plus-2 meeting to be
long-format, with all sides remaining at the table until the issues
were resolved. DAS Merkel said that, while the USG might be ready to
make that investment if chances of success existed, if it were not
successful the Russians could use the failure to kill the entire
process. Charge noted that from his experience with the Dayton
accords, before moving to long-format, it was necessary for the
situation to be at the point where you are reasonably sure the issues
can be resolved.

Voronin Believes Medvedev wants a Settlement
--------------


6. (C) Voronin said that be believes that Medvedev personally wants
to solve the problem, perhaps as a way to create his own legacy.
Voronin gained this impression from his talks with Medvedev in St
Petersburg in early June at the economic forum. He said that
Medvedev had been surprised by the degree of autonomy Moldova was
proposing to grant Transnistria, including powers that none of the
autonomous republics within Russia possessed. Medvedev had been
surprised by inclusion of the right of parliamentary initiative and
the granting of the right of secession for Transnistria should
Moldova renounce its sovereignty.


7. (C) DAS Merkel said he believed that Russia is a "status quo
player," i.e. that it benefits from having a process, but does not
see its interests advanced through a final resolution. DAS Merkel
suggested the need to redefine a contribution as not simply being
engaged in the process, but rather, to be constructive Russia should
support tabling the document and supporting formal 5-plus-2
negotiations to begin.


8. (C) Voronin said he would have a meeting with Medvedev within the
next month, perhaps August 18 or 20. (Note: Voronin has vacation
planned for August 1-17.) He said that the meeting had already been
postponed several times. Voronin said that he does not like the
Russian suggestion that he meet with Smirnov in the presence of
Medvedev, and would rather meet first bilaterally with just Medvedev.
Voronin said he fears an unexpected surprise, where suddenly a door
opens, a video camera appears, and a document is thrust upon him to
sign. Voronin said he had called Russian Deputy Secretary of the
Security Council Zubakov and told him that he would not sign anything
outside of the 5-plus-2 context.

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9. (C) Merkel said that he intended to visit Moscow, hopefully to
talk with Zubakov and Karasin and encourage their support of tabling
the package and starting 5-plus-2 negotiations. Merkel noted that
the USG is not focused on who gets the credit for a settlement but
that a settlement has the right principles.


10. (C) Charge noted that the Russians do not seem to appreciate the
importance of having broad international support in order to make a
settlement succeed. President Voronin said that he understands that
he needs the support of his international partners, like the U.S.
If the unification process were successful, it would be a colossal
moment that would require a lot of domestic resources and billions of
international support. DAS Merkel said that countries would be more
willing to support a lasting settlement, and if a settlement was
reached we would do what we could and encourage other countries.

Sixty Day Period to Get off TIP Tier III
--------------


12. (C) DAS Merkel reminded President Voronin that the 60-day action
plan period for getting off of TIP Tier III would be coming to an end
August 4th. President Voronin said that he was holding a very tough
meeting this week to have a serious discussion on the strong measures
the government supports on this topic. He said that after the CCTIP
(Center for Combating Trafficking in Persons) center had been set up
(with American help) most of the other government agencies had washed
their hands of the problem. The Ministry of Interior, Border Guards,
Customs, Police and other agencies all needed to be involved in
solving the trafficking problem, not just CCTIP. Voronin promised
that each of these agencies will now take responsibility for fighting
trafficking.


13. (C) Voronin said that he had personally nominated Valeriu Hincu
as the candidate to become the new director of CCTIP. Voronin
praised Hincu's skills, saying he comes from an intelligence services
background, where he was in charge of counter intelligence. Voronin
expressed confidence Hincu will provide good leadership for the CCTIP
center and its efforts to combat trafficking.

Voronin Downplaying GUAM because of Transnistria
-------------- ---


14. (C) DAS Merkel said he had attended the GUAM Summit in Batumi
July 1st and noted President Voronin's absence. The President
explained that this was an extremely difficult question for him.
He said that the other members of GUAM, Azerbaijan, Ukraine and
Georgia, all suffered currently from bad relations with Russia. He
said, with remarkable candor, that it was only because of
Transnistria and his need for Russia's support that he could not
participate more in GUAM. DAS Merkel suggested that it was not in
Moldova's interested to leave Russia with the impression that they
had control over what organizations Moldova belonged to and there
level of activity. President Voronin assured DAS Merkel that he
would not leave GUAM and that he would state publicly his commitment
to Moldova's membership in GUAM

IRI / NDI
--------------


15. (C) President Voronin, in response to DAS Merkel's support for
IRI and NDI's work in Moldova, referenced his meeting with Perina and
assured Merkel there was no plan to remove the organizations.

Comment
--------------


16. (C) The President, who was relaxed and jovial throughout the
meeting, seems to have strengthened his resolve not to be duped into
signing any kind of Kozak-II agreement brokered by the Russians.
Simultaneously he realizes his need for support from the United
States and European Union. Though he acknowledges the importance of
Russia, Voronin appeared firm in his commitment that the
Transnistrian problem could only be resolved by working within the
5-plus-2 format. End Comment.


16. DAS Merkel cleared this cable.

PERINA