Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHISINAU762
2008-07-18 11:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Chisinau
Cable title:  

SOVA WANT 5-PLUS-2 TO TACKLE STATUS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PBTS MD 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0817
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHCH #0762/01 2001137
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 181137Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6911
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHISINAU 000762 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PBTS MD
SUBJECT: SOVA WANT 5-PLUS-2 TO TACKLE STATUS
ISSUE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Rudolf V. Perina
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

Ref: Chisinau 746

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHISINAU 000762

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PBTS MD
SUBJECT: SOVA WANT 5-PLUS-2 TO TACKLE STATUS
ISSUE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Rudolf V. Perina
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

Ref: Chisinau 746


1. (C) Minister for Reintegration Sova believes
5-plus-2 needs to begin work on the status of
Transnistria. He had hoped for concrete results
in time for Moldova's elections and was
disappointed with the slipping time frame. Sova
reports that the fire has gone out of Smirnov's
eyes, and that the Transnistrian leader is no
longer striving as before. Sova will miss having
Litskai as chief TN negotiator and doubts the
ability of Yastrebchak to do anything other than
Smirnov's bidding. Moldova was disappointed with
Ukraine's shifting of position on border
delimitation around the Novo-Dniestrovsk hydro-
electro plant. The GOM's task now, was to
clarify the position of Russia on Transnistrian
settlement. End Summary.

Upcoming 3+2: The Main Issue Should be Status
-------------- -


2. (C) In a July 15 meeting with Charge, Minister
for Reintegration Sova said that he does not
expect much in the way of concrete results from
the 3-plus-2 meeting scheduled for July 21-23.
He believes that too much time is being devoted
to confidence-building measures, with no effort
to tackle the critical status issue. The GOM
will continue to work on confidence-building
measures for now, though Sova believes that
political dialogue is more important and is
concerned these measures could just strengthen
separatist power. When President Voronin meets
with the 3-plus-2 mediators, he plans to speak
about the need to tackle the status issue.

Sova Had Hoped For Results Before the Elections
-------------- --


3. (C) Sova expressed disappointment, as he had
been hoping for progress in time for the
elections. This schedule could have worked only
had there been a 5-plus-2 meeting by June. Such
a meeting would have allowed results by
September, and thus any deal reached could have
been presented to Parliament by October. It is
necessary that any resolution to the conflict be
in place at a minimum six months before the
elections. Sova noted that the elections could
take place any time from March 2009 up until June

15, as the law provided for elections to take
place up to three months after the end of the
Parliamentary mandate. In Sova's view, four
years will be lost if the PCRM does not win in

2009. Sova would like to convince himself that
all is not lost on having a settlement in time,
but said that this will be hard, as there are no
results yet.

GOM Package Documents Ready, but not on the Table
-------------- --------------


4. (C) The Government of Moldova has prepared its
package position, but Sova believes that Chisinau
cannot table the package at the talks. He thinks
it should be proposed either by Russia, the US,
the OSCE or all 3-plus-2 participants together.
If GOM were to propose it, then the Transnistrian
side would propose its own package. Some
Europeans have suggested that the GOM should give
the draft to Tiraspol, but Sova said he is not
interested in doing so. He believes that
ultimately the Parliament would approve the
package; there were risks of opposition, but he
thought that in the end a majority would support
it.

The Fire has Gone from Smirnov's Eyes
--------------


5. (C) Sova said that he perceives changes in
Smirnov. As compared to the Smirnov of 1990, now
Sova sees that the fire has gone out of his eyes.
Sova believes Smirnov is already thinking of a
quiet retirement home somewhere else. Back in
1990, Smirnov was on fire, with an energy he now

CHISINAU 00000762 002 OF 003


lacks. Now, according to Sova, Smirnov is
drinking less and thinking more about his health.
Sova sees Smirnov as a man who no longer has that
internal drive for the fight. Sova speculated
that perhaps Smirnov had changed due to his own
evaluation of the situation or, perhaps it was
that no one in Moscow is taking him seriously.
Whatever the reason, it was already clear to
Sova, that Smirnov is no longer pushing the
struggle as he had previously.

Sova Will Miss Litskai as a Negotiator
--------------


6. (C) Sova said he is sorry Litskai was removed
as Transnistria's chief Negotiator, as the two
had found a modus vivendi to work together. Sova
said he did not believe that Litskai had been
removed for political reasons, but instead
mentioned both internal power struggles and
Litskai's alcohol abuse. Sova referred to
Koroliev's desire to play a role as counter-
balance to Shevchuk, and termed his influence
"aggressive."


7. (C) Sova called Acting Foreign Minister
Yastrebchak a "nice guy," but doubted the
latter's ability to carry out the negotiations.
Yastrebchak was linked to Smirnov and hence would
be limited to dutifully obeying his orders. Sova
did not know if Yastrebchak would be named
Minister, or would only serve as Acting Minister
in the interim before another figure stepped in.
At any rate, Sova did not expect a decision
before September, and certainly not in time for
the upcoming 3-plus-2 meeting. Sova speculated
on the possibility the Transnistrians might
separate the function of negotiator from the post
of Foreign Minister, and thus allow an additional
negotiator to be appointed. He also speculated
on other alternatives, saying that if the regime
wanted to be aggressive, they would name Ruslan
Slobodeniuk (discussed reftel).

Problems with Ukrainians over Delimitation
--------------


8. (C) Sova noted Moldovan disappointment with
Kyiv's position on border delimitation. After
long discussions with Ambassador Pirozhkov,
Voronin met with Ukrainian President Yushchenko
in St. Petersburg, and the two had come to an
agreement. The GOM had expected the Ukrainian
president to come to Moldova for a formal
signing. Instead, Sova said that the next day
the Ukrainians had changed their position on the
thorniest issue of the delimitation at the Novo-
Dniestrovsk hydro-electric plant. Instead,
according to Sova, the Ukrainians claimed the
Moldovans had misunderstood, and insisted that
the entire plant, including the part on the
Moldovan shore of the Dniester, was all Ukrainian
territory.

Russian Position is Still Critical for Moldova
-------------- -


9. (C) Sova noted that if the Russians presented
them with any kind of Kozak-II document, Moldova
would not sign. However, for now he said,
Moldova's key task was to clarify the real
position of their Russian colleagues.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Sova had been pushing for a "long-format"
all-out 5-plus-two session that could last for
several weeks until the details of Transnistria's
status are resolved. Holding a 3-plus-2 meeting
July 21-23 in Moldova is actually a genuine step
forward, but for Sova it is a disappointment
representing too little, too late. Voronin and
Sova were hoping to see a speedy wrap-up of
status negotiations to allow unification in time
for the elections -- Voronin believes that
Transnistrians would be more likely to vote for
the party of Communists, and hence strengthen the
PCRM power base. Though the fire in Smirnov's
eyes may be dimming, we doubt it will be

CHISINAU 00000762 003 OF 003


extinguished so easily.

PERINA