MOLDOVA DOWNPLAYING GUAM BUT NO PLANS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000753

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MD
SUBJECT: MOLDOVA DOWNPLAYING GUAM BUT NO PLANS TO
LEAVE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Rudolf V. Perina
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to Moldovan FM
Stratan, President Voronin's failure to attend
the GUAM Summit in Batumi was an attempt to
reassure the Russians, rather than a signal of
Moldovan plans to leave GUAM. Moldova was trying
to downplay GUAM participation in hopes of
securing Russian support for a Transnistrian
solution. Moldova finds that GUAM's utility has
been limited to law enforcement and justice,
particularly the VLEC center, and would like to
see more economic cooperation projects. Moldova
currently holds SECI presidency, and will use its
upcoming chairmanship of the Council of CIS Prime
Ministers to try to organize a joint meeting of
the two organizations. End Summary.

MF Stratan Seeking to Balance Russian Interests
-------------- --


2. (C) In a July 9 meeting with Foreign Minister
Stratan, Charge Perina asked about President
Voronin's absence from the GUAM Summit in Batumi.
Stratan responded with unusual candor that
President Voronin's failure to go to Batumi was
linked to the next visit of Russian President
Medvedev to Moldova. Stratan said that the
Russians are very concerned about GUAM as a
competitor to the CIS, and about Moldova's
participation in the organization. Stratan said
that Moldova is trying to balance the situation
to avoid being accused by the Russians of going
to GUAM to criticize Russia.


3. (C) Stratan noted that in November, Moldova
will have the chairmanship of the Council of
Prime Ministers of the CIS. He said that Moldova
thus has to create conditions in which no one can
object to its behavior, especially given its
hopes of being able to reach a Transnistrian
settlement. Stratan went on to note that Moldova
now holds the Presidency of the South-Central
European Initiative (SECI),and would plan to
hold a joint meeting of SECI with the Prime
Ministers of the CIS States. Bringing these two
organizations together would provide an
opportunity to discuss issues of mutual interest,
including energy.


4. (C) Stratan noted that the previous day (July
8),in an interview with a Ukrainian newspaper,
President Voronin had publicly stated that
Moldova has no intention to leave GUAM. However,
Voronin had told the interviewer that GUAM should
have more concrete economic projects.

DepFM Confirms Moldova has no Plans to Leave GUAM
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In a separate meeting July 8, Deputy
Foreign Minister Valeriu Ostalep also told
Pol/Econ Chief that Moldova has no plans to leave
GUAM. He said that he had not received any
instructions from the President to prepare
analysis or documentation to leave the
organization. Instead, he had been given
instructions to analyze the political and
economic benefits for Moldova of remaining in
GUAM. Ostalep said that he had prepared a modest
assessment, arguing that the strongest benefits
for Moldova are in the areas of justice and
homeland security, particularly VLEC (Virtual Law
Enforcement Center) exchanges of information.


6. (C) Ostalep did suggest that GUAM's other
members derive more benefit from the organization
than Moldova. He said that Azerbaijan uses GUAM
to garner support for its position on Nagorno-
Karabakh. Ukraine wants GUAM as a forum for
asserting its regional leadership. For Moldova,
however, GUAM does not have enough concrete
economic benefits. Ostalep said that the GOM has
some tentative ideas to launch economic projects,
and he will include the question of concrete
economic projects in his post-summit assessment
report to President Voronin.

Comment

CHISINAU 00000753 002 OF 002


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7. (C) Though Moldovan participation in GUAM has
been minimal (they still do not have a full-time
representative in Kyiv and have not yet paid
dues),it appears the GOM has no plans to
withdraw from the organization. Stratan's
explanation that Voronin fears Russia appears to
be an open and frank description of the
situation. President Voronin is trapped between
East and West as he seeks greater European
integration but still needs Moscow's help to get
a Transnistrian settlement. GUAM is one area
where concessions can be made to Moscow at little
cost to Moldova. More concrete economic
cooperation projects would help secure greater
enthusiasm from the Moldovans for GUAM.

PERINA