Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHISINAU497
2008-05-08 15:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Chisinau
Cable title:  

SOVA ON THE WORLD OF SMIRNOV

Tags:  PGOV PREL PBTS PINR MD 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCH #0497 1291516
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 081516Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6646
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L CHISINAU 000497 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS PINR MD
SUBJECT: SOVA ON THE WORLD OF SMIRNOV

Ref: Chisinau 466

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kelly Keiderling for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHISINAU 000497

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS PINR MD
SUBJECT: SOVA ON THE WORLD OF SMIRNOV

Ref: Chisinau 466

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kelly Keiderling for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Charge d'Affaires Keiderling and P/E Chief Daria
Fane met with Minister for Reintegration Vasile Sova and
Reintegration Vice Minister Ion Stavila on May 1 to brief them on
Ambassador Kirby's April 30 meeting with Transnistrian (TN)
"President" Igor Smirnov (reftel). Sova said that the GOM had
decided that it would need Smirnov to sign an agreement with
Chisinau. TN parliamentary speaker Shevchuk lacked Smirnov's natural
charisma and clout with the TN security forces. Sova said he would
push to set a date for long-format 5 plus 2 talks to start by the end
of May. End Summary.

Shevchuk Lacks Smirnov's Charisma
--------------


2. (C) Sova described Smirnov as a natural leader and charismatic
politician who was popular with Transnistrians. Speaker of the
Transnistrian Supreme Soviet (parliament) Shevchuk was a technocrat
who did not have the support of TN security forces and would not be
able to ensure the adherence of the security forces to an agreement
signed with Chisinau. Sova recounted a couple instances when
Shevchuk had tried to challenge Smirnov, but had been unable. One
example was when the Supreme Soviet proposed legal changes to give
itself more power. When Smirnov refused to accede to the changes,
Shevchuk backed down. On another occasion, Shevchuk publicized
scandalous information about Gazprom and the Smirnov family's
connections to and financing with Gazprom. Shevchuk threatened that
the Supreme Soviet would take action, but then backed down.


3. (C) Ministry of Reintegration officials had debated whether they
should try to work through Shevchuk and urge Russia to remove
Smirnov, but, said Sova, they had decided that TN security structures
would respond only to Smirnov's orders. Sova concluded that the best
path was to work with Smirnov to get him to sign an accord to resolve
the TN conflict.


4. (C) Sova added that Smirnov would not have to worry about his
retirement. Smirnov had a yacht and fabulous villa (some 30-60 kms
outside of Moscow near Raminsky) in Russia, in addition to real
estate in the Crimea.

Sova Pushing for 5 plus 2 Round
--------------


5. (C) Sova said that he would push for 5 plus 2 talks to start by
the end of May (some time after May 20). He envisioned a long-format
meeting of 2-3 weeks to take place in St. Petersburg, with perhaps a
few days in Helsinki. Sova defended a long-format approach as the
best way to work through to a resolution once and for all.


6. (C) Asked whether Chisinau would share its "package" proposal
with Tiraspol, Sova responded that the package represented Chisinau's
final position, presented to Russia. Showing the Transnistrians what
Chisinau would be willing to give up would not allow the GOM any room
for negotiations. The Transnistrians would just table their own
proposal and again the two sides would be deadlocked, Sova added.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Sova has been working the reintegration portfolio for years
and has keen insight into the personalities of the players. While we
have noted that Shevchuk's star has been rising, we agree with Sova's
observations on the difference in personality between him and
Smirnov. The GOM's recognition of the need to work with Smirnov,
instead of hoping Russia would just remove him, was reflected in
Voronin's decision to meet with the Transnistrian leader. Shevchuk
would have his role to play, if any agreement on status were to be
reached. At that point, the TN and Moldovan parliaments would be
involved in approving the agreement.


8. (C) Post believes that holding a short meeting first to agree on
an agenda for a longer session would be more productive than diving
directly into an all-out long-format negotiation.

KEIDERLING