Gagauzia Facing 3-Way Legislative Race on March 16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000267

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MD
SUBJECT: Gagauzia Facing 3-Way Legislative Race on March 16

Classified By: Ambassador Michael D. Kirby for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A March 3 pre-electoral visit to Gagauzia found the
administration still scrambling to solve the problem of funding the
March 16 elections for the Gagauz People's Assembly. Gagauz Governor
(Bashkan) Mikhail Formuzal hoped to prove to the population that
Gagauzia could solve its problems with out the Communist Party
(PCRM),while charging that Chisinau wanted him to fail. Comrat
Mayor Nicolai Dodoglu spoke at length about his rivalry with
Formuzal, complaining that their split strengthened the hand of the
Communist Party. The Central Electoral Commission is mostly
concerned about funding, and whether the money would be found in time
for the elections.
End Summary.


2. (C) In a pre-election visit to Gagauzia on March 3, Ambassador
Kirby met with Bashkan Formuzal, Mayor Dodoglu, Central Electoral
Commission Chief Pyotr Ivanov, and representatives of civil society.
These interlocutors described a three-way race for the upcoming
parliamentary elections on March 16, between supporters of Formuzal,
Dodoglu and the Communist Party, while predicting a weakening of
support for the Communists.

Formuzal Thinks Central Government Wants Him to Fail
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3. (C) Gagauzia's leader, Bashkan Mikhail Formuzal, assured the
Ambassador that funding would be found to carry out the March 16
elections. He told the Ambassador that his aim was to show the
population that Gagauzia could resolve its problems with the
Communists and with Chisinau. Formuzal said that since his election
he had provided political stability, managed the budget and carried
out real reform. He praised his own successes, noting that even
non-Gagauz villages in the Vulcanesti area were asking to become part
of Gagauzia.


4. (C) However, Formuzal complained that the leadership in Chisinau
viewed him as an enemy to be destroyed. Formuzal believed his
effective leadership was dangerous to the Communist Party. Chisinau,
Formuzal noted, created situations designed to make him look bad,
such as not permitting Russia's humanitarian aid to be delivered to
Comrat.


5. (C) Formuzal complained that the central government was trying to
make him responsible for debt that he had not created. They wanted
him to repay 28 million lei (USD 2.5 million) of 2006 debt accrued
under the previous governor. The Bashkan claimed that the Ministry
of Finance wanted to paralyze the Gagauz leadership by taking 28
million lei from its current budget to pay the debt rather than
letting Gagauzia pay it back over time.


6. (C) Formuzal reported that Chisinau was actively campaigning in
support of the PCRM candidates, using central government resources to
build support. Ministers and other government figures were
campaigning for PCRM candidates. Formuzal predicted that the
Communists would win a minority share of the vote, and thus lose
control the Gagauz parliament. He expected a parliament of largely
independent candidates among whom he would have to form a working
majority.

Dodoglu Focused on his Rivalry against Formuzal
-------------- --


7. (C) Comrat Mayor Dodoglu described the parliamentary elections as
a three-way race between himself, the Bashkan, and the communists.
According to Dodoglu, thirty of the candidates (out of a total of 160
in 35 constituencies) supported him. He expected that at least fifty
percent of the population would participate in the elections.


8. (C) Dodoglu criticized the way Formuzal handled relations between
the two, starting immediately after the December 2006 Bashkan
elections. Dodoglu had, he said, swallowed his pride to congratulate
his rival, but Formuzal had not even invited him to the inauguration.
A bitter Dodoglu complained that Formuzal had isolated himself and
could not get a majority. He lamented that the Gagauz government did
not represent all of Gagauzia.


9. (C) Dodoglu confirmed that President Voronin, Speaker Lupu and
various deputies visited Gagauzia regularly to support PCRM
candidates, and argued that the split between Formuzal and Dodoglu
strengthened their hand. Dodoglu believed that the population was
disappointed with Formuzal's leadership. Instead of fighting the
Communists, Formuzal was busy fighting Dodoglu.

CEC Still Needs Funding
--------------


10. (C) Central Electoral Commission Chairman Pyotr Ivanov focused
predominantly on his problems in securing necessary funding for the
elections. He said that the CEC had received 800,000 of the
1,200,000 lei needed for the conduct of the elections (600,000 from
the People's Assembly and 200,000 from the Gagauz executive branch).
Money still was needed to pay the salaries of the CEC members and for

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electoral workers. Ivanov said that the CEC was printing ballots,
but had insufficient money to pay for all the ballots.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) The key political issue at stake in the upcoming Gagauz
parliamentary elections is whether the Communists will retain their
hold on the Gagauz People's Assembly. The rivalry between Formuzal
and Dodoglu is not ideological, but instead represents a difference
in personalities. Civil society representatives believed that the
PCRM's popularity was dropping in Gagauzia. If Formuzal's supporters
do not win a majority in the parliament, Formuzal's challenge will be
to build a working coalition with Dodoglu supporters or a modus
vivendi with the PCRM. End Comment.

KIRBY