SCENE-SETTER FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN MOLDOVA'S

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000174

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SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN MOLDOVA'S
AUTONOMOUS REGION OF GAGAUZIA


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1. (SBU) Summary: Legislative elections in Moldova's autonomous
region of Gagauzia have been scheduled for March 16. Lack of
funding has created uncertainty about whether the elections may have
to be cancelled, but Gagauz leaders are still working on reaching an
agreement with the central government. Candidate registration
finished February 14, with 160 candidates running for 35 seats in
the Gagauz People's Assembly. Three major political forces will
compete in the race: candidates promoted by Bashkan (Governor) of
Gagauzia Mihail Formuzal, candidates supported by the Communist
Party, which has a majority of seats in the current legislature, and
candidates supported by Mayor of Comrat Nicolai Dudoglo. With
Communist Party influence weakening in Gagauzia, prospects look good
for Formuzal to gain a clear majority in the People's Assembly. End
summary.

Election Mechanics
--------------


2. (SBU) Elections for the People's Assembly (the local Gagauz
legislature) have been set for March 16. This legislative body has
35 members, elected for 4-year terms in single constituencies. Each
constituency has 5,000 registered voters and is split into voting
precincts. To win, a candidate must poll more than 50% of the votes
cast in the constituency. If no candidate polls more than 50%, a
run-off round between the top two vote getters in the first round
follows in two weeks. The election is conducted by the Gagauz
Election Commission (GEC),a non-permanent body created on an ad-hoc
basis. It has 9 members, with the People's Assembly, the Governor
and Gagauz courts each appointing three members. Candidates for the
People's Assembly nominated by political parties and movements do
not need to collect support signatures, while independent candidates
need 300 signatures.

Problems with Funding
--------------


3. (SBU) Because Gagauzia has not yet received any funding from the
central government for carrying out the elections a shadow of
uncertainty about the prospect of holding the elections hangs over
the process. The PCRM and the Bashkan are each claiming the lack of
funding on the other. Bashkan Mikhail Formuzal has met with Prime
Minister Tarlev, Parliamentary Speaker Lupu and the Moldovan Central
Election Commission in an effort to secure funding for the
elections. Some anti-Formuzal Gagauz deputies issued a statement
February 11 in the name of the People's Assembly Presidium blaming
the Bashkan for his failure to allocate money for the elections from
Gagauzia's budget. The Bashkan, in turn, blames the central
government for not providing the funding that Gagauzia needs for the
conduct of its elections. The Minister of Finance offered Gagauzia
a loan of 1,200,000 lei (about 106,000 USD),but the Bashkan refused
the loan, saying that the central government should be responsible
for paying for Gagauz elections just as it paid for the 2007 local
elections. Without funding, the GEC is unable to print ballots and
campaign materials.

Multi-candidate elections
--------------

4 (U) Candidate registration finished February 14, with 160
candidates for the 35 seats in the Gagauz parliament, an average of
4.6 candidates per mandate. Exactly half of the candidates, 80, are
running as independents, while the other 80 represent 10 political
parties. The largest number of party-affiliated candidates (26) is
from the Communist Party (PCRM). The large number of independents
stems from the past that Gagauz-specific regional parties cannot
register without meeting the national registration requirements of
500 members in each raion. Formuzal heads the Yedinaya Gagauzia
(United Gagauzia) movement, which is technically an NGO, as it
cannot register as a political party. More than half of the
candidates listed as independents are actually supporters of
Yedinaya Gagauzia.


5. (SBU) Three major political forces will compete in the election:
candidates supported by Formuzal, candidates supported by the PCRM
and those supported by Mayor of Comrat Nicolae Dudoglo. Formuzal's
victory in 2006 has left him in a difficult relationship with the
PCRM-controlled People's Assembly, which has important budgetary
authority and oversight powers over the executive. The PCRM does
not want to loose its majority in the People's Assembly, but its
popularity appears to be low. By contrast, Formuzal is seeking to
build on his 2006 victory. As mayor, Dudoglo (who lost the 2006
run-off for Bashkan to Formuzal) is popular in Comrat, but he is far
weaker than Formuzal outside of Comrat.

Comment: What are the Stakes?
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6. (SBU) Our Gagauz contacts suggest that the PCRM is likely to lose
control of the People's Assembly. If Formuzal wins a majority, it
will be far easier for him to garner support for his policies. With
the legislature behind him, Formuzal's key challenge will be
effectively managing the balance of power in his relationship with
the central government. The current struggle over funding for the
elections is partially the result of lack of clarity in the
separation of powers between central government and autonomy, but is
a clear reflection of the uneasy relationship between the two. The
Ambassador plans to visit Gagauzia on March 3.

Kirby