Urechean's Implausible Presidential

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 001258

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE

E.O. 12958: Declassify 12/21/18
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PBTS PINR MD
SUBJECT: Urechean's Implausible Presidential
Ambitions

Classified by Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry under
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a December 17 meeting with
Ambassador Chaudhry, Our Moldova Alliance (AMN)
party leader Serafim Urechean criticized his
political enemies, lamented Moldova's decline
under Voronin's rule, predicted his own election
as president in the 2009 elections (despite
ruling- party dirty tricks),and described his
vague plans for a solution of the Transnistrian
conflict. Urechean estimated his chances of
success at a higher rate than that shown by
current opinion polls. End summary.

Urechean on Enemies and Betrayers
--------------


2. (C) Speaking with heavy irony, he referred to
President Voronin as "Comrade" (and then explained
the Soviet reference),and described the many
court cases brought against him as examples of
"Moldovan know-how." He stated that he had the
"worst impression" of Christian Democrat leader
Iurie Rosca, but declined to elaborate. His
strongest criticisms were made against former
Democrat Party and Social Democratic Party
colleagues, who, he claimed, reneged on
commitments to form alliances with the AMN after
the June 2007 local elections. If the other
parties had kept their promises, he said, the
Party of Communists (PCRM) would now control only
four out of 32 raions (districts),instead of the
11 they currently run.

Dark Days in Moldova
--------------


3. (C) Urechean painted a dark picture of
conditions in Moldova, claiming that the PCRM was
committing genocide, agriculture was destroyed,
exports non-existent, deficits doubled, and 60
percent of all deaths occurred at home because
people had no access to health care. He noted
that pensioners, who form much of the PCRM's base
of support, do receive their pensions. However,
average payments (USD 37 per month) are much less
than the minimum needed to survive (USD 110 per
month). In addition, he stated, pensions were
funded as loans from the National Bank of Moldova,
and constituted a debt of 2.5 billion lei (USD 250
million).

GOM Pressure on the AMN
--------------


4. (C) Urechean described GOM pressures on himself
and on his party. The GOM, he noted, persisted in
prosecuting him on numerous corruption charges
(from his 12 years as Chisinau Mayor from 1993 to
2005),despite his being cleared in the courts.
He claimed that security forces monitored his
travels, and that, after AMN members spoke in
schools in three raions, GOM officials threatened
the principals of these schools with dismissal if
they allowed the AMN to speak again on school
premises.

Urechean Predicts He Will Be Coalition President
-------------- ---


5. (C) Despite these pressures, Urechean was
confident that he would be elected President by a
coalition of the three non-Communist parties: his
own AMN, Vlad Filat's Liberal Democrats (PLDM),
and Mihail Ghimpu and Dorin Chirtoaca's Liberals
(PL). Urechean claimed that the PCRM would win
20-25 seats in the 101-member unicameral
Parliament, and the AMN would win 34. (He made no
predictions regarding seats to be won by the PLDM,
PL, and independents.)

Comment: Reasons to Doubt the Prediction
--------------


6. (C) Urechean based his prediction on past
numbers, his experience and exposure as Chisinau
Mayor, his regional vote bases, and his own self-
confidence. Urechean's claim that the AMN would
win 34 seats in Parliament is unlikely: that was

CHISINAU 00001258 002 OF 002


the number of seats won in 2005 by a larger
alliance of which the AMN was a part. Urechean
also cited the 14 raions run by AMN raion chairmen
after the 2007 election, but failed to put the
voting numbers into perspective: the PCRM won
33.5 percent of the votes cast for councilors,
trailed by the AMN with 17.5 percent. (It was
deal-making among several non-PCRM parties that
overcame the PCRM plurality.) Present polling
numbers are even less hopeful for the AMN, with
Gallup and Monitorul Social putting the PCRM at 30
and 30.6 percent, respectively, and the AMN at 6.0
and 5.6 percent. Against such figures, Urechean's
other claims for support (his two wins as Chisinau
Mayor and his public declarations that he is
ready) ring even more hollow.


7. (C) Urechean was vague about his platform,
beyond stating a desire to improve Moldova's image
and solve Transnistria by expelling Russian troops
and perhaps reconfiguring Moldova as a federation
of seven regions.


8. (C) Urechean's tendency to exaggerate his hopes
and avoid uncomfortable numbers was on full
display. Urechean's AMN party headquarters also
revealed the operation of a less-than-modern
political party. In the long dark hallway that
formed the entrance, ten or so black-clad guards
scowled at visitors. Urechean's office, up
several flights of poorly lit stairs, displayed
dozens of Orthodox icons on the wall. Outside the
door, groups of petitioners waited humbly. The
Ambassador's exhortation to Urechean to observe
democratic values and the principles of freedom
were apposite in what looked more like the lair of
a Balkan warlord than the headquarters of a modern
democratic party.

Chaudhry