EUROPEN COMMISSION HEAD DOWNBEAT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 001078

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS MD
SUBJECT: EUROPEN COMMISSION HEAD DOWNBEAT ON
MOLDOVA

Classifed By: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 14 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: 1. In an October 9 meeting with
Ambassador Chaudhry, the head of he European
Commission delegation to Moldova, Ceare de
Montis, gave a disapproving assessment of
political and economic developments in Moldova.
He painted a generally negative picture of
MoldoaQs prospects for reaching EU standards, as
he qestioned the commitment of Moldovan leaders
to avance needed political and economic reforms.
EndSummary.

Moldova's Poor EU Prospects
--------------


2. (C) De Montis offered litte hope that Moldova
would receive a clear EU sigal regarding
prospects for Moldovan accession tothe EU in the
foreseeable future. First, Moldov had made no
progress on reforming its politicaland economic
systems since before the local electons in June
2007, claimed de Montis. Second, evn if Moldova
could re-start reforms, the questio of EU
enlargement was now "taboo" within the EU In
addition, he openly questioned the GOM's acual
commitment to joining the EU. Unlike Ukraine
where the opposition parties pushed for movemen
toward EU accession, he believed that the GOM's
strategy to join the EU was merely a political
maneuver by the Party of Communists (PCRM) to
weken the appeal of MoldovaQs opposition groups.

Itoxicated Political Elite Unable to Reform
--------------


3. (C) Abassador de Montis had nothing positive
to say aout Moldova's recent political
developments, whih he claimed were dominated by
an "intoxicated" ladership unable to think or
act in a way that wold support political
reforms. He even questione whether average
Moldovans were more likely to support movement
toward the EU rather than Moscow. De Montis said
that the ruling party was caught off guard by the
strong showing of the opposition during the June
2007 local elections. The PCRM's poor showing
caused the GOM to make changes to the power
structures of the country (such as the Ministry
of Interior),electoral laws, and the media. He
noted that the GOM had ignored the EC's clear
expressions of concern regarding these negative
developments and said that more strong criticism
was on its way in the form of the just-released
Venice Commission report.

How to Spend EC's Large Assistance to Moldova
--------------


4. (C) Ambassador de Montis said that the EC's
annual assistance to Moldova was one of the
largest in the world on a per capita basis (30
Euro per Moldovan he said),but that prospects
were very limited for the EC's projects making
much difference. He didn't see the point in
investing in roads, because he questioned whether
the GOM would maintain them. He saw no
possibilities in the agricultural sector for EC
programs, other than assistance with phyto-
sanitary norms. De Montis believed little could
be done to alleviate the major economic problems
of trade, credit, the financial system, or an
improved business regulatory environment. The
only EC program that he spoke positively about
was support for EUBAM, which he believed was
directly responsible for increasing transparency
in trade involving the Transnistria region and
reduced trafficking in persons.

No Positive Scenarios for Elections
--------------


5. (C) De Montis expressed strong skepticism that
the results of the 2009 elections would have a
positive impact on Moldova's reform prospects.
He argued that each of the following three
election scenarios were still possible: a
continued majority for the PCRM, a majority
coalition of opposition parties, or a coalition
of the PCRM and one or more opposition parties.
His opinion was not based on the most recent poll
numbers, but rather on his conviction that
today's polls did not represent the true views of
voters.

Soviet Instincts Remain
--------------


6. (C) Throughout the meeting, De Montis made
frequent references to the ongoing presence of
the Soviet Union's legacy in Moldova,
particularly in the area of governance. He made
frequent references to the role of Moldova's
security services and the Ministry of Interior in
managing the flow of information within the
government and monitoring the opposition, and
noted his belief that the newly re-appointed
Minister of Interior "was given a specific task
to deliver." He also stated that the PCRM's new
election campaign head, Mark Tkaciuk, would "use
all of the tricks of the game."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) While Post generally agrees with the
concerns expressed by Ambassador de Montis, we do
not share his cynicism. Quite the opposite. We
believe that the Moldovan leadership and
population genuinely want European integration
and are making progress in thaQdirection. In
our view, by ignoring positive developments in
society, constantly focusing on rumors of
political intrigue and overemphasizing the Soviet
legacy in Moldova, De Montis's thesis serves to
rationalize the relatively poor results of the
EC's flawed model of development assistance, with
its strong emphasis on poorly monitored budgetary
support to the GOM. His is not an accurate
depiction of the desires of the majority of
Moldova's citizens, nor of broad Moldovan
progress in structural reforms. If De Montis's
reports to Brussels reflect the negative
assessment he shared with us, the prospects for
Moldova's membership in the EU are probably
distant indeed.

CHAUDHRY