PRESIDENT VORONIN WORRIED ABOUT POSSIBLE "INCIDENT" PROVOKED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 001008

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS PINR RS MD
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT VORONIN WORRIED ABOUT POSSIBLE "INCIDENT" PROVOKED
BY RUSSIA AND TRANSNISTRIA

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kelly Keiderling for reasons 1.4(b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In an October 7 meeting President Voronin told DAS
David Merkel that he was more concerned about Transnistria now than
at any point in his presidency. Voronin believed that Russia wanted
to take over the negotiating process to the exclusion of the other
5-plus-2 members. Russia had failed to deliver the Transnistrians to
the negotiating table in Vienna, and might even engineer an
"incident." However Voronin reported his commitment to the 5 plus 2
format and refused to sign a separate document. Voronin wanted the EU
to do more to help relieve Moldova's dependence upon Russia through
increased trade visas and peacekeeping, and took on board DAS
Merkel's recommendations that Moldova could reinforce its democratic
credentials by conducting free and fair parliamentary elections in

2009. Merkel assured Voronin that the USG would continue being
actively engaged with Moldova and helpful through the 5 plus 2
process. End summary.

Russia Wants to Exclude Others from Process
--------------


2. (C) Merkel expressed USG disappointment that Transnistria had
decided not to participate in the 5-plus-2 meeting scheduled for
October 7-8 in Vienna. Merkel noted that Russia had failed to use
its leverage to press Transnistria to attend and perhaps had even
pressured in the other direction. Merkel explained that he had come
to Chisinau in order to demonstrate the USG commitment to Moldova and
the 5-plus-2 process.


3. (C) Voronin thanked Merkel for U.S. interest and warned that the
Russians wanted to push Moldova into holding bilateral negotiations
with the "separatist authorities." Russia was insisting on a
1-plus-1 format, said the President, to hold talks without other
members of the process participating. As a result, explained
Voronin, he had made several firm declarations that negotiations
could take place only within 5-plus-2 and that all other formats were
merely consultations. (Comment: Voronin is in a very good place
feeling more confident that while progress may not happen before
elections, a 5 plus 2 format will produce a document that will enjoy
greater domestic and international support. End Comment.)

Concerns about Russian and Transnistrian Armed Forces
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Though all appeared calm on the surface, Voronin stated that
he was "more concerned about the Transnistria situation than at any
point in his past seven years as President." He noted that Smirnov
had started engaging armed factions drawing upon those with Russian
citizenship. Voronin said that he had operational information that
the Transnistrians had begun buying Moldovan police uniforms, (for
possible provocative acts.)


5. (C) Voronin believed that Smirnov would be willing to accept a
round of armed conflict in Transnistria now in order to postpone
negotiations for another five years. Given Smirnov's age, that would
be enough time for him, opined the President. Voronin suggested that
if Smirnov continued to delay participation in negotiations, perhaps
the group should hold negotiations without him.


6. (C) Voronin said as a part of a possible settlement he would
support introduction of European peacekeeping forces into
Transnistria. Voronin allowed that Russia might participate to a
small extent in a European force through the CIS. In addition to the
750 Russian military troops in Transnistria, there were also 1,800
Russians within other armed groups, noted Voronin with concern.


7. (C) Merkel warned that Russia might instigate a provocation in
hopes of having the GOM react in a "certain" way, as Georgia had
done. He noted that the U.S. relationship with Russia had changed,
and that we now had to deal with the Russia that existed, not the
Russia we wanted. The Russians had set a trap in Georgia, which the
Georgians had walked into at great cost. The U.S. and the
international community would demonstrate that Georgia had a bright
future, and show that they had options. Similarly, after Georgia,
Merkel pointed out that the U.S. and the EU need to demonstrate that
we are more involved in Moldova and other countries on Russia's
periphery by supporting 5 plus 2.

Reducing Russian Influence Through EU Trade
--------------


8. (C) President Voronin wanted the EU to do more on trade, a visa
regime, and eventual Moldovan accession to the union. On trade, the
President noted that back in 2001 80 percent of Moldova's trade was
with Russia and only 20 percent with other partners. The balance
had now moved to 50-50, with clear possibility for improving to
30-70, thereby escaping dependence upon the Russian market. With
increased exports to Europe, Moldova would remain dependent only on
Russian gas and gas pipelines. President Voronin noted that an

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improved visa regime between the EU and Moldova would give much
greater incentive to residents of Transnistria to hold Moldovan
passports.


9. (C) Merkel believed that the EU was coming to realize the
importance of the Eastern Partnership. Merkel had discussed with EU
officials in Brussels the need for the EU to accelerate its mandate
with Moldova. Merkel said they had also discussed a reconstruction
fund, the need for more high-level visits, and the importance of the
EU's and Ukraine's commitment to the future of EUBAM. Merkel noted
that he had not yet raised the visa regime and the need for increased
trade and promised to do so in future talks. This was a good
opportunity, he continued, as the Europeans were paying more
attention to Moldova now.


10. (C) Merkel suggested that the upcoming elections provided a good
opportunity for Moldova to be seen in a more positive light by the
EU. If the elections were conducted well, Moldova might find itself
moving ahead of Ukraine on the EU agenda.

Ukraine is an Additional Problem
--------------


11. (C) Voronin pointed out that Ukraine also had influence on
Transnistria, and posed an additional problem for Moldova. He
claimed unconfirmed information that Ukraine planned to cease its
activity in EUBAM. Voronin expressed his gratitude for the
introduction of EUBAM, noting that it had disappointed both Russia
and Transnistria because arms trafficking had stopped. It would be a
pity if Ukraine stopped collaborating with EUBAM, he concluded.
Merkel relayed commitments he had heard in Kyiv and Brussels to
EUBAM's continuance. `


12. (C) In response to Merkel's question, Voronin said that he had no
plans to visit Ukraine, but noted that President Yushchenko had
requested to visit October 18-19, days which unfortunately coincided
with the visit of the president of Montenegro.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) After months of pushing for a settlement in time for
elections, Voronin appears to have given up on this timeframe.
Feeling Russian pressure to dominate the settlement process, he is
trying instead to resist the Russians and stand firm on the need to
remain within the 5-plus-2 process. The Moldovan president is
looking to the EU and the U.S. to help reduce Russia's leverage on
Moldova. After the events in Georgia, the cloud of a possible
provocation in Transnistria now hangs over his head. He does not
trust the Russian "peacekeeping" troops, and has evidence to justify
his fears that Smirnov may be considering a provocative action.
This is the time when the USG most needs to increase its engagement
with Moldova. Robust engagement will help keep Moldova from
following the Russian script and becoming a vassal state.


14. (U) DAS Merkel has cleared this cable.

KEIDERLING