A "THIRD WAY" TO AVOID A CRISIS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000080

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/2/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: A "THIRD WAY" TO AVOID A CRISIS?

REF: A. BANGKOK 1619 (CONFLICT OVER CONSTITUTION)


B. BANGKOK 1612 (HOW HOT IS IT?)

CHIANG MAI 00000080 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary
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1. (C) Over 130 academics from across the country have launched
a campaign to find a way out of the current political stalemate.
Their plan calls for a more complete constitutional amendment
process than the one currently underway, resulting in an
entirely new constitution that would have to be approved by
referendum. Though undoubtedly a long-shot, these academics
have previously succeeded in positively influencing the
political process, and are hopeful they can do so again in an
effort to bring Thailand back from the abyss they say it is
walking into. End Summary.

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Academics Pitch a "Third Way" Out
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2. (SBU) On May 28, we met with two members of Midnight
University -- a group of politically-minded academics that has
functioned for over 10 years, and claims to be independent from
Thailand's main political parties. On May 27, the group held a
press conference at Chiang Mai University during which it issued
a statement signed by 137 professors from universities across
the country proposing what it calls the "Third Way" out of
Thailand's current political stalemate. The group's proposals
call for the establishment of a truly independent
constitution-drafting committee with broad participation by all
sectors of society, the drafting of an entirely new
constitution, ample opportunity for public debate on the draft,
and a referendum to approve that charter.


3. (C) Our Midnight University contacts told us that the May 27
press conference was widely covered by both broadcast and print
media, but that only the print media carried the story in any
detail. They explain this discrepancy by asserting that the
broadcast outlets are in the camps of either the pro-government
People's Power Party (PPP),the opposition Democrat Party (DP),
or the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) --
and therefore have so far given the "third way" short shrift.
The group hopes, however, to turn this tide by holding a press
conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand in
Bangkok sometime in the next two weeks.


4. (C) Midnight University has no plans to formally approach
either the ruling PPP or the opposition DP to sell this idea.
They told us they see the PPP as dead-set on pushing through its
specific amendments to re-empower former Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra, and the DP and PAD as equally entrenched in their
opposition to any amendments. The group does, however, plan to
get the Thai general public to focus on the third way through
the media and by displaying green flags, stickers and ribbons,
much as it did in the run-up to the promulgation of the 1997
constitution. At that time politicians were considering making
significant changes to a draft charter that had been produced by
a drafting assembly that included broad civil society
representation. That campaign against amending the 1997
constitution was successful despite significant will on the part
of those holding political power to amend it.


5. (C) Despite its current efforts, Midnight University believes
the political temperature in Thailand needs to rise further
before the general public will give serious consideration to the
Third Way. Right now, our contacts asserted, the PAD rallies
and pro-Thaksin counter-demonstrations are fairly well-organized
and generally non-violent. If that dynamic were to change
significantly, they believe their campaign may gain momentum.

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More Coup Speculation
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6. (C) Regarding coup speculation, the Midnight University
President said, "The people with guns will do what they want and
the public will accept it." He sought to minimize PAD's role in
the 2006 coup that ousted then-Prime Minister Thaksin, asserting
that those who staged the coup were not prepared to assume
political power: a year later, he noted the military-appointed
government and higher powers did not choose the PAD-favored
candidate to take over as army commander, instead choosing
General Anupong Paochinda over General Saprang Kalayanamitr.
Had PAD worked closely with the military on the coup plot, he
opined that the military would have been better prepared to
assume a political role. (Comment: It would indeed be
inaccurate to see PAD as directing the coup and post-coup

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governance. Nevertheless, PAD clearly played a significant role
in 2005-6 by legitimizing the concept of extra-constitutional
change, signaling to military leaders that the public would
accept a coup as a resolution to the political crisis that the
PAD had stoked. End Comment).


7. (C) Instead, Midnight University believes the most important
factor in determining the timing of the 2006 coup and deciding
whether to stage one at all was the annual reshuffle of military
officers, which typically takes place in late September/early
October. Similarly, if there were to be a coup in 2008,
Midnight University believes it would more likely be linked to
military reshuffles than to the actions of PAD or pro-Thaksin
demonstrators. This time, however, our contacts opined that
there would need to be significant bloodshed before the military
would step in.

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Populism As An Issue
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8. (C) Regarding how to avoid future stalemates, and why the
current one came about, Midnight University expressed the view
that the 2006 coup and resulting constitution failed to resolve
the underlying tensions in Thai society. Those who support
Thaksin's and the PPP's populist policies will continue to clash
with the elites, they asserted, regardless of whether there is
another coup, because the PPP or a reincarnation of it under a
different name will continue to score election victories.


9. (C) One solution they recommend is to enshrine populist
policies in a new constitution. Doing so would, they opined,
reduce the PPP's public appeal by depriving it of the heart of
the platform on which it has campaigned since Thaksin won his
first election in 2001. Midnight University did not have an
answer when we asked if it had considered the long-term effects
on the Thai economy of embodying such policies in a new charter.

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Comment
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10. (C) The Third Way is clearly a long-shot at this point; the
political situation remains fluid and dynamic. However, support
within the governing coalition for the amendments currently on
the table may be somewhat shaky, and an alternative proposal
could conceivably draw some interest. One principal difficulty
that Midnight University and others in civil society currently
face is that the political environment is so polarized that
virtually any proposal for political reform will be viewed
primarily in terms of whether it furthers the agenda of Thaksin
or that of his opponents. Virtually no person or group can be
seen as disinterested and objective in advocating a way forward.
Although we believe Midnight University figures are genuinely
distant from the political parties, we would also note it has a
reputation for being on the left fringe of the political
spectrum, and thus may have difficulty injecting its concept --
which appears not yet fully developed -- into mainstream
discourse.


11. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW