EXILES SEE OPPORTUNITY FOR POLITICAL CHANGE IN NARGIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000075

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS, IO, AND DRL
NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SOCI BM TH
SUBJECT: EXILES SEE OPPORTUNITY FOR POLITICAL CHANGE IN NARGIS

CHIANG MAI 00000075 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The Burmese regime's mishandling of the relief effort in
the wake of Cyclone Nargis has the potential to boil over into
mass uprising, according to Thailand-based Burmese exiles.
Given the correct confluence of factors, demonstrations could
even possibly lead to the downfall of the regime, in which some
small cracks have already become apparent, they asserted. In
their view, the role played by the monks, the National League
for Democracy, student groups, and younger Burmese inside Burma
will be key factors determining the success of any future
uprising. The subtext of this point, however, is that the
exiles alone cannot significantly influence the regime's grip on
power. Moreover, some contacts told us Aung San Suu Kyi has
directed that the relief effort not be linked to national
politics. End Summary.


2. (C) On a May 9-11 trip to the Thai-Burma border town of Mae
Sot, Tak Province, Consulate staff sought the views of several
Burmese exiles on whether the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis
presented an opportunity that could be capitalized on to promote
political change inside the country. Though they conveyed
differing degrees of confidence, and divergent thoughts, they
agreed that a window of opportunity existed, and some were able
to outline nascent efforts to spur such a process.

--------------
The Role of Monks
--------------


3. (C) According to U Pinya Zawta, a monk who played a leading
role behind the scenes before and during the Saffron Revolution
last summer, mobilizing monks and youth to provide assistance in
affected areas is one way to capitalize on the regime's botched
relief operations in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. U Pinya Zawta
said he had sent letters outlining this approach to monasteries
in the Irrawaddy delta on May 6 via Burmese students based in
Bangkok who have since reentered Burma. The students, he said,
are prepared to participate in this effort, and are carrying
cash they raised in Bangkok, which they will use to purchase and
distribute relief supplies. Younger monks engaged mainly in
teaching are his main target group, he said, because they are
more "in touch" with the people than other monks.


4. (C) Any mass uprising would emerge from popular anger over
three issues, U Pinya Zawta opined:

-- the fact that the regime had 48 hours notice before the
cyclone hit, yet failed to warn residents or take precautionary
measures;

-- the regime's focus on the constitutional referendum rather
than humanitarian relief; and

-- the regime's failure to allow international assistance to
enter the country or issue visas to aid workers.

Opposition groups inside Burma understood these issues, he
asserted, and were spreading these bits of news via the exile
radio stations and word of mouth. According to other contacts,
the re-labeling of relief supplies by Burmese authorities to
hide their origin and make it appear as though they came from
one or another General, was another issue worth emphasizing as a
part of such efforts. The fact that re-labeling has occurred
was confirmed to us by a World Food Program worker inside
Rangoon.


5. (C) If students, monks, and the general public work together
to provide assistance, they will inevitably clash with
authorities attempting to stop them from doing so, U Pinya Zawta
claimed, thereby causing some low-level clashes with security
forces. Such encounters on a larger scale could, he opined,
lead to successful political upheaval. For this to occur,
however, activists in Rangoon and the National League for
Democracy (NLD) must take the lead. If demonstrations start in
Rangoon, he underscored, the rest of the country will follow,
particularly if they are backed by the NLD, and the NLD is
prepared to form a transition government.


6. (C) Yet U Pinya Zawta pointed out several weaknesses in this
strategy, making it clear that the regime has the upper hand.
One complicating factor is that there are very few monks in
monasteries right now, he noted, with many having returned home

CHIANG MAI 00000075 002.2 OF 003


for a break after the recent state-sponsored exams. He also
highlighted several restrictions placed on monks in the wake of
the Saffron Revolution that would hamper any such effort, namely
that the regime had placed strict limits on the number of monks
entering the monkhood and planted informers among those granted
entry. Monks, he said, can also no longer travel as freely as
they did, preach impromptu in villages, or run schools for
disadvantaged children.


7. (C) According to U Pinya Zawta, older monks are afraid of
returning to monasteries and organizing politically because they
fear being identified as supporters of the Saffron Revolution by
informants. Similarly, younger ones are reluctant to return and
play politically-active roles out of fear they will be fingered
as participants in the Revolution. Consequently, he opined that
not many monks would participate in any uprising occurring in
the next two weeks. Nonetheless, he remained optimistic, citing
an incident in which monks seeking to travel to Rangoon from
Mandalay to distribute relief supplies on May 9 were forcibly
turned back by authorities.

--------------
It's Not Just Monks
--------------


8. (C) We also met separately with Mo Thee, a key leader of the
1988 uprising who, despite having been outside the exile
movement in Thailand for several years, still commands the
respect of many former political prisoners and activists, as
well as Aung Myo Tint and Mo Kyaw, former members of the
Generation 88 group who fled to Thailand after the Saffron
Revolution. They are working together with U Pinya Zawta, and
seconded his comments about the need to cause skirmishes with
authorities by attempting to deliver relief supplies.


9. (C) Aung Myo Tint asserted that about 10% of Burma's
population lives in areas affected by the cyclone, and that the
group is highlighting the U.S. offers of humanitarian assistance
to affected residents there, along with the regime's refusal to
accept all of them. (Embassy Rangoon notes that the correct
figure is 28%.) Mo Thee said that approximately 50
Burmese-Americans are prepared to enter the affected areas and
assist in the group's effort, while bemoaning the fact that none
had yet received the necessary entry permits. He added that the
group has the support of Burmese actor-turned-activist Kyaw Thu,
and that he believes the effort could succeed in heightening
political tensions and making it clear to the people that the
regime has failed them, if the group could raise money quickly.
Aung Myo Tint seconded this sentiment, noting that when the
Saffron Revolution broke out, no one was prepared. He expressed
hope that this would not be the case if an uprising occurred in
the near future.

--------------
Hairline Fractures at the Top?
--------------


10. (C) Separately, contacts at the Karen National Union -- a
group that has waged low-level armed conflict against the regime
for over 40 years -- told us that Senior General Than Shwe and
Thura Shwe Man, the regime's third-highest ranking general,
openly disagreed about whether to accept international aid.
They said that Thura Shwe Man favors accepting it without
conditions, while Than Shwe is taking a much harder line. They
also alleged that many soldiers were unhappy because their
commanders were not allowing them to take leave in order to
assist their families in this time of need. Interlocutors at
the National League for Democracy Liberated Areas -- an exile
group that claims to still have links with the NLD -- echoed
this assessment. However, neither the KNU nor the NLDLA was
able to articulate a plan to capitalize politically on the
Nargis tragedy. In fact, NLDLA contacts told us they had
received a message from Aung San Suu Kyi via the NLD's Central
Executive Committee explicitly instructing the party to delink
humanitarian relief from politics.

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) Some exiles are determined to push ahead with efforts
to instigate clashes with the authorities by forcibly
distributing relief supplies even when instructed not to do so
by the authorities. Embassy Rangoon adds that the exiles'
comments do not take into account the current situation,
particularly in the devastated Delta region, where the monks are
focused completely on humanitarian relief, although these monks
may not be carrying out the particular strategy exiles outlined

CHIANG MAI 00000075 003.2 OF 003


to us. The exiles have wrongly predicted "cracks at the top"
before. Burma's senior generals continue to follow Than Shwe's
orders. No one dares to defy him, even if it means the
unnecessary deaths of thousands of people.


12. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Rangoon and
Bangkok.
MORROW