SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: NEW NSC CHIEF SEEN AS THREAT TO PEACE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000060

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM PTER TH
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: NEW NSC CHIEF SEEN AS THREAT TO PEACE
PROCESS

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 47 (SAMAK BLESSES BUT DOES NOT EMBRACE PROCESS


B. CHIANG MAI 40 (PEACE DIALOGUE AWAITS SIGNAL FROM NEW GOVERNMENT)

C. BANGKOK 909 AND PREVIOUS (SAMAK MISSPEAKS)

CHIANG MAI 00000060 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, Consul General, CG, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary
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1. (S/NF) Thai Government point-man for secret talks with
southern insurgents Mark Tamthai fears the newly announced
National Security Council chief prefers harsh tactics over
conciliation. Tamthai sees the next few weeks before the new
chief takes office as a window for outreach directly to Prime
Minister Samak to persuade him to support actively continuation
of the nascent peace process. Samak has yet to embrace the
process, but did give the green light for the March 27-28 round
of RTG-insurgent talks in Jakarta. Tamthai said the Jakarta
round focused on how to keep the process moving forward despite
lack of clear support from the new government in Bangkok.
Insurgent leaders at the talks denied ordering the March 15
bombing of the CS Pattani hotel, attributing it to an election
vendetta. RTG officials briefed on disciplinary steps taken
against military officials responsible for the March 21 death in
custody of a Muslim cleric. The next round of talks is
tentatively scheduled for May. End Summary.

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New NSC Chief "A Huge Step Backwards"
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2. (S/NF) Consul General met April 9 in Chiang Mai with Dr.
Mark Tamthai, Director of Payap University's Institute of
Religion, Culture and Peace and point-man for the RTG's secret
dialogue with southern insurgents. Tamthai opened the meeting
by lamenting the previous day's announcement that National
Security Council Secretary General (NSC SYG) Lt.-Gen. Siripong
Boonpat would be replaced by Lt.-Gen. Surapol Phuan-aiyaka.
Surapol's appointment could be a "huge step backwards" for the
nascent peace process, Tamthai said. Surapol had been NSC
Deputy SYG up until two years ago (before the September 2006
military coup),and during that time had advocated using RTG hit
squads to take out insurgent leaders. His proposal was never
adopted, however.


3. (S/NF) Tamthai explained that - unlike outgoing NSC SYG
Siripong, who was not greatly knowledgeable about the south but
was open to all ideas - Surapol had firm views on the south and
was unlikely to show much flexibility. Tamthai said he did not
know whether Surapol was appointed precisely because of his
hard-line views on the south, or for political reasons related
to his ties to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (the two
were classmates in pre-cadet school, and Siripong served as NSC
Deputy SYG during the last Thaksin administration) Tamthai and
his pro-dialogue RTG circle tried to weigh in with current Prime
Minister Samak Sundaravej prior to the appointment of a new NSC
chief, but "I don't think our views reached him."


4. (S/NF) It is still unclear how Samak views the peace
process, Tamthai said. On the one hand, Samak did provide via
Deputy PM Sahas Bunditkul a green light for the March 27-28
round of RTG-insurgent talks in Jakarta. On the other hand,
Samak has said and done little else, other than his apparent
public gaffe that partially blew the cover of the heretofore
"secret" dialogue. Because Surapol will not take office for
about three weeks until a royal decree is signed, Tamthai sees
this as a window to approach Samak directly in hopes of
persuading him to embrace personally the peace process. Tamthai
told CG he would be in Bangkok April 10 to participate in a
strategy session on how to approach Samak and prepare for the
new NSC chief.


5. (S/NF) Tamthai said the NSC SYG is key to the peace process
because he chairs the "mechanism" created by former interim PM
Surayud Chulanont. Thus Surapol can either ignore the
mechanism, kill it by starving it of funding, or embrace it.
Shortly after he takes office in a few weeks, he will be briefed
by NSC staff on the RTG's peace process mechanism. Tamthai is
not optimistic that Surapol will respond favorably. He fears
Surapol is among that strain of RTG officials who, while paying
lip service to "the need for dialogue," see it solely as a means
to "flush out the bad guys" by noting who shows up for the talks

CHIANG MAI 00000060 002.2 OF 003


as representatives of the insurgents.

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Insurgents Deny Involvement in Hotel Bombing
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6. (S/NF) The March 27-28 Jakarta talks, Tamthai said, followed
a two-track pattern established in previous rounds: one track
discussed long-term strategy for resolving the conflict; the
other addressed operational developments and recent incidents.
In Jakarta, the latter track addressed the March 15 bombing of
the CS Pattani hotel. Tamthai said insurgent leaders insisted
the bombing was unrelated to their movement. They claimed the
bombing was arranged by political rivals of the hotel owner for
his backing of a particular candidate in the March national
senate elections. Those who set the bomb may well have been
insurgents who were hired for the job due to their expertise in
explosives. (Note: Tamthai said a growing trend in recent
years was the hiring of separatist insurgents to commit criminal
acts because of their capability to do so). Some RTG analysts,
however, continued to asset that the hotel bombing was a
deliberate signal by insurgents to "up the ante" by attacking
new, more prominent targets.


7. (S/NF) Tamthai believes either theory is credible. He
explained that the insurgency exile leaders the RTG meets with
do not control all the perpetrators of violence in the south.
By their own admission, he said, the insurgency leaders involved
in the peace process - who are Thai-citizen ethnic Malays in
forced or self-imposed exile in Malaysia, Europe and the Middle
East, affiliated with either the Barisan Revolusi
Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C) or the Pattani United Liberation
Organization (PULO) - describe the following breakdown:

-- 60% of those engaged in violence are controlled by the BRN-C
and PULO leadership in exile;

-- another 20% are sympathetic to the separatist movement but
operate outside the control of the exile leadership; and

-- the remaining 20% are individuals carrying out spontaneous
acts of revenge or anger.


8. (S/NF) Tamthai specified that it is the BRN-C and PULO
leaders representing the first 60% whom the RTG engages in the
peace dialogue. These participants travel to the talks from
their residences outside Thailand. Recently, however, the
dialogue has been able to include some mid-level operational
leaders who travel to the talks directly from southern Thailand.
Tamthai said he did not know how they got in and out of the
country, though his team has helped a few of them with
documentation and travel logistics. Tamthai emphasized the
personal risk the insurgents must take to expose and identify
themselves to the RTG by participating in the talks. The
greatest risk is in the first instance, however, with the risk
steadily diminishing the longer a particular individual engages
in the dialogue.

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RTG Addresses Human Rights Case
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9. (S/NF) Another operational issue routinely on the dialogue
agenda is human rights abuses committed by RTG security forces.
In Jakarta, the RTG briefed on the disciplinary steps it was
taking against those responsible for the March 21 death in
custody of Muslim cleric Yapa Kaseng. According to Tamthai,
four Royal Thai Army (RTA) personnel have been expelled from the
military, and their commanding officer has been suspended and
will be reassigned. Tamthai said the Ministry of Justice was
taking this case seriously. More broadly, he said, there were
two strains within the RTA: one that is serious about avoiding
human rights abuses and disciplining those who commit them, and
one that is not. It is hard to stamp out the latter strain,
Tamthai observed, because the two strains exist in parallel
right up to the RTA's top-most command levels. (Note: As he
has before, Tamthai spoke very favorably of RTA
Commander-in-Chief Anupong Paochinda's support for the peace
process).

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Searching for a Way Forward
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10. (S/NF) Besides these operational issues, the Jakarta talks

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focused on how to keep the process moving forward despite the
lack of clear support from the new government in Bangkok,
Tamthai said. Confidence-building measures that the two sides
appear ready to take - provided the government embraces the
process - include outreach to local insurgency commanders
representing the "middle 20%" referred to in para seven above.
Another step, Tamthai believes, is the readiness of the BRN-C
and PULO leaders to commit formally and publicly to foreswearing
outright independence as a goal of the movement, as they have
indicated informally during the secret talks


11. (S/NF) Tamthai said the next round of talks was tentatively
set for May, provided the RTG approved. The Jakarta talks were
the last round in which outgoing NSC chief Siripong will have
participated. RTA Commander Anupong also attended the Jakarta
round, in part because he was in town accompanying PM Samak on a
simultaneous but unrelated bilateral visit. Surayud did not
participate, mainly because he wishes to keep a low profile as
the immediate ex-Prime Minister. But Tamthai expressed pleasure
at the day's news that Surayud had been reappointed by the King
to the Privy Council, where he had served before stepping down
in 2006 to take the post of interim Prime Minister.

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Comment
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12. (S/NF) In Thai governing circles, there are those who
believe a military solution alone is the answer to the southern
insurgency, and those who do not. In the post-coup
military-appointed government, the latter group prevailed,
allowing interim PM Surayud to set up the RTG's peace process
mechanism anchored in the NSC. The new, elected government has
yet to clearly tip its hand. In Mark Tamthai's view, the coming
weeks before the new NSC chief takes office will be critically
important for persuading PM Samak and his new government to
embrace the peace dialogue.


13. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW