SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: AS NEXT ROUND OF PEACE TALKS BEGINS,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000047

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER KDEM TH
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: AS NEXT ROUND OF PEACE TALKS BEGINS,
SAMAK BLESSES BUT DOES NOT EMBRACE PROCESS

REF: A. BANGKOK 909 (SAMAK MISSPEAKS)

B. CHIANG MAI 40 (PEACE DIALOGUE AWAITS SIGNAL FROM NEW GOVERNMENT)

CHIANG MAI 00000047 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, Consul General, CG, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
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Summary
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1. (S/NF) Notwithstanding his inopportune public comments last
week, Prime Minister Samak has reportedly blessed the next round
of "secret" peace talks between the government and southern
insurgents set for the coming days. Our source, a Chiang
Mai-based academic involved in the peace process, reports that
Samak's support for the process is tenuous and not fully
formulated. A critical next step will be the naming of a new
National Security Council head, expected in the coming weeks.
While we are encouraged the talks are resuming, we cannot expect
much forward progress in the near term unless the government
puts its full weight behind the effort. End Summary.

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Samak Blesses Next Round of Peace Talks
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2. (S/NF) Dr. Mark Tamthai, Director of Payap University's
Institute of Religion, Culture and Peace in Chiang Mai, called
on Consul General March 26 to update him on the RTG's stance on
the nascent southern Thailand peace process in which Tamthai has
been involved. Tamthai had recently returned from Bangkok,
where he traveled shortly after Prime Minister Samak surprised
many on March 19 by publicly revealing - and renouncing - the
RTG's secret talks with insurgents.


3. (S/NF) Consistent with a source cited in Ref A, Tamthai said
Samak had misspoken out of confusion. According to what Tamthai
learned in Bangkok, Samak had simultaneously received two
briefing papers on the peace process: a detailed one written by
"us," and a shorter piece produced by the National Intelligence
Agency that contained factual errors. Samak had read only the
shorter piece before he spoke to the press. Shortly afterwards,
Tamthai said, one of "our" people talked to Samak and brought
him around. This person reported that Samak in fact supported
the peace process and wanted it to continue, though he had not
formulated his thinking on what specific direction he wanted it
to take.


4. (S/NF) Tamthai was relieved to have Samak's blessing,
because the next round of talks would be taking place soon. In
fact, Tamthai said he was leaving Thailand March 27 to go the
talks. He did not reveal the location. (Note: the last round
took place in Bahrain in early December; reporting from other
USG channels indicates that this round will be held in Jakarta).
The RTG would again be represented in the talks by National
Security Council staff, including NSC Secretary General Siripong
Boonpat.

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Jockeying for Samak's Ear
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5. (S/NF) It is still unclear who has Samak's ear on the
southern insurgency issue, Tamthai said. Various players are
jockeying for influence, some pro-peace and some anti-peace.
For now, Samak appears to be relying on Deputy Prime Minister
Sahas Bunditkul on national security matters. Sahas was one of
Samak's deputies when the latter was governor of Bangkok. Sahas
has no experience on security issues, but has Samak's trust.
Beyond Sahas, Samak is still figuring out whom to trust, Tamthai
told us.


6. (S/NF) Tamthai has heard the NSC's Siripong would be
replaced shortly after the next round of peace talks. Given the
NSC's central role in the peace process, the question of who
will be its new Secretary General is critical, Tamthai said. He
has heard one encouraging name - a general in charge of policy
planning at the Defense Ministry. But the general has made some
recent political missteps that may preclude him from getting the
job. Tamthai has also heard one discouraging name - a general
(unnamed) who has been involved in southern issues before and
had proposed deploying hit squads to rub out insurgent leaders.
The NSC could swing either way, Tamthai said, because its staff
includes both proponents and opponents of the peace process, but
will take its cue from the new Secretary General.

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Surayud Still Engaged, But Low Profile

CHIANG MAI 00000047 002.2 OF 002


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7. (S/NF) Another concern of Tamthai's is whether former Prime
Minister Surayud would return to the King's Privy Council, where
he had been before being appointed Prime Minister of the
post-coup interim government in 2006. As interim PM, Surayud
actively supported the peace process as chairman of the RTG's
committee on the southern insurgency (with Tamthai serving as
his advisor). According to Tamthai, reappointments to the Privy
Council were usually immediate after a member returned from a
leave of absence. He said Surayud was perplexed that this had
not happened. (Note: Privy Council member Kasem Watanachai,
when asked by CG during a March 22 luncheon about Surayud's
reappointment prospects, replied "I don't know; it's up to the
King").


8. (S/NF) In the meantime, Surayud continues as he long has to
chair the Statesman Foundation, which was founded in the name of
Privy Council Chairman and former Prime Minister Prem
Tinsulanonda. Several of the Foundation's board members are
also Privy Councilors. The Foundation has a good track record
conducting educational and social programs in the south, Tamthai
said. He noted that the peace process group had its office
space there. Surayud remains engaged in the process, but has to
keep a low profile out of respect for the new Prime Minister.
RTA Commander in Chief Anupong Paojinda is a strong supporter of
the process. MFA Permanent Secretary Virasakdi Futrakul is also
a supporter, but recently told Tamthai he expected to be
replaced soon. Regarding Foreign Minister Noppadol Pattama and
Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, Tamthai said it was hard
to know what to make of them and their position on the southern
insurgency.

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Violence Cycling Upward
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9. (S/NF) Commenting on the March 15 bombings in the south,
Tamthai said both the RTG and the insurgents had two wings:
those for peace, and those who oppose peace because they fear
what might have to be given up to achieve it. The anti-peace
forces on each side know what buttons to push to generate a new
cycle of violence by the other side. Recent revelations of
torture of a local imam by government security officials may
have generated the March 15 bombings, Tamthai speculated.


10. (S/NF) Tamthai said he was aware of recent intelligence
reports, "of B-minus validity," indicating that insurgents were
ready to take violence to a new level by targeting Thai and
foreign tourists. He intends to ask about this when he meets
later this week with insurgent leaders at the next round of
peace talks.

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Comment
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11. (S/NF) We are encouraged that Samak appears to support the
peace process and that the next round of talks is going forward.
However, we do not yet have the sense that Samak has fully
embraced the process and is ready to lend his political weight
to its success.


12. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW