SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: PEACE DIALOGUE AWAITS SIGNAL FROM NEW

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000040

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER KDEM TH
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: PEACE DIALOGUE AWAITS SIGNAL FROM NEW
GOVERNMENT

REF: A. BANGKOK 300 (DAS MARCIEL HEARS VIEWS ON SOUTHERN VIOLENCE)


B. 07 BANGKOK 6281 (SOUTHERN DIALOGUE FACILITATOR GIVES OPTIMISTIC READOUT)

C. 07 BANGKOK 6161 (SURAYUD TALKS TO THE BRN-C)

D. BANGKOK 710 (PRISONER ABUSE ALLEGATIONS ON THE RISE)

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CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, Consul General, CG, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary
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1. (S/NF) PM Samak's month-old government has yet to signal its
approach to the secret peace process launched by its predecessor
to address the violence in southern Thailand, we were told by
Mark Tamthai, advisor to former PM Surayud. Samak's security
policy team is still taking shape, and it is unclear who will
have his ear on the southern issue. Tamthai believes Samak must
embrace the peace process for it to succeed, and expects in a
few days to brief him and other top officials on the status of
the process and seek to win their support. No meetings have
taken place between the RTG and separatist groups since the last
round in Bahrain in early December. With human rights abuses
reportedly on the rise, Samak would need to move forward quickly
and decisively if he wishes to avoid having both sides dig in
deeper and gird themselves for new cycle of intensified violence
in the south. End Summary.

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Peace Process Awaits New Thai Government
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2. (S/NF) On March 10, Consul General called on Dr. Mark
Tamthai, Director of the Institute of Religion, Culture and
Peace at Payap University in Chiang Mai. Tamthai was a member
of the 2005 National Reconciliation Commission, and more
recently served as advisor to former interim Prime Minister
Surayud Chulanont on the southern Thailand peace process.


3. (S/NF) Tamthai told CG it was still too soon to say how the
new government in Bangkok would approach the secret peace
process that has been underway (reftels). He said the
government was still organizing itself, noting that this was not
a normal transition given the change-over from a
military-appointed interim government to an elected one. "So
they're starting from scratch," he observed, making almost
wholesale replacements of top-ranking officials and largely
bringing back officials from the Thaksin-era governments of
2001-06. Tamthai confirmed that no meetings have taken place
between the RTG and separatist groups since the last round in
Bahrain in early December (refs B and C).

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Some Optimistic Signals
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4. (S/NF) The RTG's Surayud-chaired committee on the southern
insurgency would continue to exist, Tamthai said. But the key
is whether new Prime Minster Samak Sundaravej will embrace and
support it. The committee cannot move the peace process forward
without prime ministerial support; for example, it needs someone
who can order troop movements to set up and secure "peace
zones," as well as someone who can engage foreign governments.


5. (S/NF) Tamthai was cautiously optimistic PM Samak would
support rather than ignore the committee and the existing peace
process, because:

-- no better alternative has emerged, so the new government is
unlikely to reject the current process if there is nothing to
replace it with; and

-- Samak is already on record saying his government would
continue to follow the roadmap outlined in the recommendations
of the 2005 National Reconciliation Commission, and Interior
Minister Chalerm Yubamrung has stated a need to look beyond a
purely military solution.

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Who Has PM Samak's Ear?
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6. (S/NF) A bigger question mark is who will be the key players

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on the southern issue in Samak's government, Tamthai said.
Samak's priorities on economic policy are fairly clear, but his
security policy is less so. His cabinet team is comprised
largely of politicians, and lacks officials with strong
military, security, and foreign policy experience. Tamthai
claimed no knowledge of who might comprise Samak's inner circle
of advisors, but spoke favorably of two people whom he believed
were in the "next tier" on security matters: Royal Thai Army
(RTA) Supreme Commander Gen. Boonsang Niampradit, and RTA Chief
of Staff Gen. Songkitti Jakkabat. He said both officers were
close to the Thaksin-era governments, and both served with RTA
forces deployed to East Timor as peacekeepers. (Comment: Gen.
Jakkabat was a prep school classmate of former PM Thaksin).


7. (S/NF) Tamthai also spoke favorably of RTA
Commander-in-Chief Gen. Anupong Paojinda, who is a member of the
RTG's committee on the southern insurgency and has supported
Surayud's efforts. Asked whether Surayud would remain a player,
Tamthai expressed uncertainty. He said it was very strange that
Surayud had not been appointed to the King's Privy Council since
leaving office in early February. An appointment would seem to
be an obvious move, given that Surayud was asked to be interim
Prime Minister to "help out the country" and his PM appointment
was endorsed by the King.


8. (S/NF) Tamthai told us he would travel to Bangkok in a few
days to brief PM Samak and other top officials on the status of
the secret peace process and seek to persuade them to support
it. It will be important, he said, to inform them about
developments that have taken place since the Thaksin government
was ousted in 2006. Asked for an example of a new development,
Tamthai cited the inclusion in the process of community
stakeholders (both Muslim and Buddhist). He did not provide
details on the nature of their participation, but said bringing
community leaders inside was an important step forward. This
helps get them to buy into the process - even if their views are
not heeded much - and it would be a mistake to exclude them now
that they are part of it.

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An Argument For Going Public
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9. (S/NF) Tamthai continues to advocate that the RTG-separatist
dialogue be made public (ref A). He argued that there reaches a
point when the secrecy of secret talks loses its utility. At a
certain point the process needs to go public so that pro-peace
forces can support the process and give it sustainability. He
acknowledge the risk to public security (and participants'
personal security) of going public, but believes the risk occurs
"only at the first moment."

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Tamthai on Human Rights Abuses
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10. (S/NF) Tamthai said he was aware of allegations by NGOs and
civil society groups of an uptick in human rights abuses by Thai
military forces in recent months (ref D). Though he knew of no
hard evidence, he drew a parallel between the current situation
and that of 2004. That year, he said, several years of good
government policy in the south had created a threat to those who
may have wanted peace but wanted it without any compromises made
to the area's Muslim majority. As a result, some rank-and-file
military personnel felt threatened by the peace process and
powerless to stop it through formal channels - so they resorted
to "disappearances" and other human rights abuses. Now we are
seeing a similar phenomenon, Tamthai observed. He cautioned,
however, that not all violence in the south could be attributed
to the insurgents and security forces. Some is related to
narcotics trafficking, and some was linked to the December
parliamentary elections.

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Comment
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11. (S/NF) Surayud has a reasonably good package to hand off to
new PM Samak. Whether the handoff will be clean, fumbled, or
refused will largely be determined by the same players who had -
at best - a mixed record on the south as members of the 2001-06
Thaksin governments. With human rights abuses reportedly on the
rise, Samak would need to move forward quickly and decisively if
he wishes to avoid having both sides dig in deeper and gird

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themselves for new cycle of intensified violence in the south.


12. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW