Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHIANGMAI32
2008-03-03 07:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

SNAPSHOT OF NORTHERN KAREN STATE PROVIDES LITTLE HOPE

Tags:  PREL MOPS PHUM PREF TH BM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2741
PP RUEHCN RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0032/01 0630753
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 030753Z MAR 08
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0687
INFO RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 0743
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000032 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/3/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM PREF TH BM
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF NORTHERN KAREN STATE PROVIDES LITTLE HOPE

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 21 (KNU ASSASSINATION)

B. 07 CHIANG MAI 203 (POSSIBLE KAREN STATE OFFENSIVE)

C. 07 CHIANG MAI 188 (FREE BURMA RANGERS)

CHIANG MAI 00000032 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, Consul General, CG, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/3/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM PREF TH BM
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF NORTHERN KAREN STATE PROVIDES LITTLE HOPE

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 21 (KNU ASSASSINATION)

B. 07 CHIANG MAI 203 (POSSIBLE KAREN STATE OFFENSIVE)

C. 07 CHIANG MAI 188 (FREE BURMA RANGERS)

CHIANG MAI 00000032 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, Consul General, CG, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) A snapshot of Burma's northern Karen State provided by a
recently returned Free Burma Rangers relief mission provides an
overall bleak assessment for the local populace there. The
ethnic Karen, although not facing an increase in fighting with
Burma Army troops, are contending with continuing population
displacement, increasing landmine casualties, hampered access to
food and relief supplies, distress over the assassination of a
key political leader, and absence of hope over national
political developments. End Summary.

--------------
Burma Army's Troop Surges Subsides
--------------


2. (C) Free Burma Rangers (FBR) founder and leader David Eubank
recently returned to Chiang Mai from a four-month trip to
Burma's northern Karen State. Eubank, an Amcit, was there from
mid-October until late February, and reported to us on his
observations. The FBR is a faith-based organization that
provides humanitarian assistance to civilians in ethnic areas
under attack by the Burma Army along the Thai-Burma border.


3. (C) Eubank reported that the Burma Army's deployment surge
in northern Karen State, which started last October and peaked
at 97 battalions in the state's three northernmost districts in
mid-January, has since subsided to about 60 battalions. This is
still larger than the usual 40-to-50-battalion strong presence
the Burmese normally have there. Eubank pointed out that, these
days, the average size of a Burmese Army "battalion" has
dwindled to fewer than 150 troops.

--------------
Noose Tightens on Ethnic Karen
--------------


4. (C) The troops in northern Karen State have been engaged
primarily in road-building. Eubank explained that, as the

number of roads and Burma Army encampments has increased, ethnic
Karen remaining in the area have been forced to relocate. He
showed us a series of FBR powerpoint maps showing how, in recent
months and years:

-- the roads and encampments (20-to-40 troops each) have
steadily moved eastward toward the borders of Karenni State and
Thailand; and

-- the number of ethnic Karen living in the area has decreased.


5. (C) The new roads have enabled the Burma Army to expand its
control of the area, increase its mobility, and put increased
pressure on the rebel Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA),
Eubank said. The roads - which are heavily mined and actively
patrolled by Burmese troops deployed at outposts only a mile
apart - also serve as barriers to Karen access to food and
relief supplies. The Karen in the north have been cut off from
their usual rice market in Karen State, and now can only safely
travel to procure rice in Karenni State, in the city of Mawchi.
This area is under the control of the Karenni National
Solidarity Organization, which has signed a cease-fire agreement
with the regime.

--------------
No Increase in Fighting, But Landmine Injuries Up
--------------


6. (C) The increased Burmese troop deployment has not brought
with it an increase in fighting, Eubank said. His FBR teams
reported daily small arms and mortar fire in the road-building
areas, mainly as a Burma Army tactic to chase away local
villagers. The shooting did kill some civilians, however. In
response, the KNLA inflicted some casualties when ambushing
Burma Army troops that were rotating out of the area in January.


7. (C) Landmine injuries to Karen civilians are on the rise,

CHIANG MAI 00000032 002.2 OF 002


Eubank reported. Firstly, Burmese troops are protecting their
new roads with landmines, and lay mines in villages they destroy
to victimize residents who return to collect belongings.
Secondly, many of the landmine casualties are the result of
mines placed by the Karen themselves, some of which inevitably
and inadvertently kill or maim locals. Eubank asserts that the
majority of mines in the area are laid by the Karen, not the
Burmese Army. He related a story of a village woman who strings
mines across the footpaths leading to the fields where she
labors, as a defense against marauding Burmese troops. While
this is not a threat to innocents as long as she collects the
mines at the end of her workday, Eubank pointed out, the mines
could be lethal to locals should she be surprised and chased
away or killed before clearing them.

--------------
Rangers Collaborate With Thai Security Forces
--------------


8. (C) The FBR has good relations with, and shares information
with, Thai security forces along the Burmese border (though
Eubank would not name the specific organizations or units).
When FBR teams cross into and back from Burma, the Thais not
only turn a blind eye but also alert the FBR teams of areas to
avoid due to Burma Army deployments. Recently, Eubank said,
Thai officials gave the FBR what he considered to be a
first-ever "tasking" - to report anything FBR teams picked up
about Burmese uranium prospecting and/or nuclear development
programs. Eubank told us he would be happy to do so, but
expected the Thais to tell him what to look for and to provide
supporting equipment, which has not happened.

-------------- --------------
Karen Reaction to Mahn Sha Killing, NLD Overture, and Referendum
-------------- --------------


9. (C) We asked Eubank what reaction the Karen he met had to
the February 14 assassination of Karen National Union Secretary
General Mahn Sha (Ref A). He replied that the Karen were very
disturbed by the killing and blamed the Burmese regime for it.
Since the killing, the FBR has not detected an increase in
violence between the various Karen armed groups. In fact,
Eubank said, Mahn Sha's assassination appears to have had a
unifying effect among the Karen.


10. (C) We also asked Eubank about Karen reaction to both Aung
San Suu Kyi's offer for the National League for Democracy (NLD)
to hold talks with Burma's ethnic groups, and the regime's
announcement of a constitutional referendum. On the former,
Eubank said the Karen were disappointed over the silence with
which ASSK's offer was greeted by most ethnic groups that have
signed cease-fire agreements with the regime. On the latter,
the Karen see the referendum as "a joke."

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) The Free Burma Rangers' snapshot of northern Karen
State indicates that the initiative and upper hand remain with
the regime troops. The Karen, meanwhile, must cope with more
population displacement, increasing landmine casualties,
hampered access to food and relief supplies, distress over the
assassination of a key political leader, and absence of hope
over national political developments.


12. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Rangoon and
Bangkok.
MORROW