KNU SECRETARY GENERAL ASSASSINATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHIANG MAI 000027

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, IO AND PRM
PACOM FOR FPA
GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV MOPS PREL PREF PHUM SNAR BM TH
SUBJECT: KNU SECRETARY GENERAL ASSASSINATED

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
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Summary
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1. (C) Though the assassination of Karen National Union
Secretary General Mahn Sha is most likely the result of

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infighting among Karen groups, we cannot discount entirely the
possible involvement of elements of the Burmese military and
perhaps local Thai officials. The Thai police are
investigating, and they believe they can solve the case quickly.
There is no evidence to suggest that other Burmese exiles'
lives are at risk as a result of Mahn Sha's murder, although
some have expressed concern for their safety. The assassination
is unlikely to directly affect refugee flows into Thailand. End
Summary.

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KNU Leader Assassinated
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2. (SBU) Mahn Sha, the Secretary General of the Karen National
Union (KNU),was killed in northern Thailand on February 14.
(Note: The KNU has waged low-level military conflict against the
Burmese regime for over 40 years, but poses no real threat to
it. The group currently limits its actions to protecting
civilians in Karen State from the Burma Army's abuses, and
attacking small groups of Burma Army soldiers when it can.)
Though accounts from Burmese exile groups, the media, and local
Thai officials differ slightly, we can conclude that sometime
between 4:00 and 5:00 pm local time on February 14, three men
drove to Mahn Sha's house in the border town of Mae Sot, Tak
Province, in a pickup truck. Two got out of the vehicle,
greeted him in Karen and shot him, killing him instantly, before
fleeing. The truck had Thai license plates, though local
officials in Mae Sot believe they were fraudulent. In the wake
of the murder, some Burmese exile groups have expressed concern
for the personal safety of their members, claiming that their
names are on a Burmese regime "hit list."


3. (C) Comment: Though the regime stands to benefit by silencing
the exile community, we have no evidence of any plot on its part
to kill Mahn Sha or any other exiles. KNU contacts told us
there were always purported "hit lists" floating around, and
that Mahn Sha was always near the top. We note that to date,
National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB - an umbrella
organization of Burmese exile groups) Secretary General Maung
Maung is the only exile figure to express imminent concern for
his safety, but he did so indirectly through contacts in the
U.S., rather than reaching out directly to U.S. Mission
Thailand. Furthermore, a close associate of Maung Maung told
post yesterday that if Mahn Sha's death was the result of
internal squabbles among the Karen, then "we are alright". We
only have to worry, he said, if his murder was ordered by the
regime. End Comment.


4. (C) KNU contacts told us on February 15 that they believe the
assassination was carried out by rival Karen groups: the
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA - a KNU splinter group that
now sides with the regime),in conjunction with the KNU Peace
Council (KPC - another KNU splinter group with close ties to the
regime). This view is shared by other observers here.
Respected Burmese exile Aung Naing Oo, who lectures at Chiang
Mai University, told the press the killing was likely the result
of infighting among rival Karen groups. A contact with the
Free Burma Rangers, a faith-based group that provides
humanitarian relief to Karen and other ethnic groups inside
Burma, said the murder was more likely a result of internal
Karen factional violence than of action by the Burmese regime.
(Note: One late-breaking news report claims that DKBA forces

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attacked the KNU on Thai territory. In response to our queries,
both KNU and Thai intelligence contacts denied the report. We
will follow up and report as appropriate.)


5. (C) A contact at the Thai National Intelligence Agency (NIA)
office in Mae Sot, citing communications intercepted a few days
ago between General Htay Maung of the KPC and Lieutenant Colonel
Min Chit Oo of Burma's Office of Military Affairs Security,
told us he believed the Burmese Government likely played a role
in the assassination. Yet he asserted that the driving force
behind the killing was KNU-KPC infighting, not the regime.

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Thai Complicity?
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6. (C) In a February 14 meeting with us that coincidentally took
place while the assassination was being carried out, Pastor
Timothy Laklem of the KPC lashed out at Mahn Sha and Karen
National Liberation Army (KNLA - the military wing of the KNU)
Seventh Brigade Commander Johnny, blaming them for the January
29 assassination of KPC General Ler Mu in Karen State. He
called the KNU terrorists, and accused them of playing dirty
politics. He also alleged that the KNU was involved in drug
trafficking and in the illegal timber trade through Burmese
regime crony Tay Za. (Comment: While we cannot prove these
allegations, such illegal activities are often suspected of
being the sustenance of armed groups in Burma's ethnic states
and along its borders.) Pastor Timothy went on to say that KPC
General Htay Maung was initially considering retaliating by
attacking the Mae La Refugee Camp in Thailand, but was persuaded
by the Pastor that Mahn Sha and Johnny were responsible for Ler
Mu's death, not anyone from the Camp. (Note: We saw at least
one media report earlier this week alleging that there were
plans to attack the Camp, but no one has reported anything out
of the ordinary there since then.)


7. (C) Pastor Timothy also alleged that elements of the Thai
Third Army assisted the KNU in the assassination of General Ler
Mu, and that the KNU carries out its drug and timber trade with
the collaboration of some local Thai officials. (Comment:
Pastor Timothy failed to present evidence to support these
allegations.) Separately, a contact in Royal Thai Army
intelligence told us he could not discount the involvement of
some local Thai officials in Mahn Sha's death, citing the fact
that the attack was carried out in broad daylight rather than
after dark. He also stated that yesterday was the first time
someone at Mahn Sha's level (General Secretary) had ever been
attacked on Thai soil. The same contact said that Thai police
were investigating Mahn Sha's death, and that he believed they
would have suspects in custody relatively soon, particularly if
no local Thai officials were involved in carrying out the
assassination. KNU contacts confirmed that Thai police were
investigating Mahn Sha's murder, and opined that the police and
military already have some leads. The same KNU contacts did not
reveal any plans to carry out attacks in retaliation for Mahn
Sha's death.

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Comment
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8. (C) Though we cannot dismiss allegations of non-Karen
involvement in these two assassinations and the KNU's alleged
illegal activities , the Thai-Burma border is very porous, and
crossing it away from official checkpoints does not require
assistance from Thai authorities. So far, the preponderance of
the evidence indicates that Mahn Sha's assassination was the
work of the KPC and DKBA, though it appears elements of the

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Burmese military were aware of the plot. Regardless of who
killed him and why, Mahn Sha was a strong advocate for the
Karen, and will be missed by the vast majority of them. Since
Mahn Sha's death is likely due to infighting between Karen
groups rather than a plan laid by the Burmese regime to
eliminate a senior Karen leader, we do not believe this incident
in and of itself will lead to increased refugee flows into
Thailand. We will continue to monitor the situation closely,
and to coordinate with Embassies Rangoon and Bangkok.


9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and
Rangoon.
MORROW