Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHIANGMAI184
2008-12-03 07:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

LOWER NORTH LEADERS SAY NATIONAL STALEMATE HARDENING; DON'T

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KJUS ASEC CASC ECON EINV TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
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OO RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0184/01 3380738
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O P 030738Z DEC 08
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0910
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 0987
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000184 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER AND PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/3/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS ASEC CASC ECON EINV TH
SUBJECT: LOWER NORTH LEADERS SAY NATIONAL STALEMATE HARDENING; DON'T
EXPECT POLITICIANS TO FIND WAY OUT

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 144 (NEXT MOVE WILL COME FROM COURTS, NOT POLITICIANS)

B. BANGKOK 3529 (THAI COURT DISSOLVES PPP)

CHIANG MAI 00000184 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



-----------------------------
Summary and Comment
-----------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000184

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER AND PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/3/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS ASEC CASC ECON EINV TH
SUBJECT: LOWER NORTH LEADERS SAY NATIONAL STALEMATE HARDENING; DON'T
EXPECT POLITICIANS TO FIND WAY OUT

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 144 (NEXT MOVE WILL COME FROM COURTS, NOT POLITICIANS)

B. BANGKOK 3529 (THAI COURT DISSOLVES PPP)

CHIANG MAI 00000184 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



--------------
Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) Consul General discussed Thailand's national political
impasse with local politicians during a trip to two lower north
provinces just prior to the December 2 court ruling dissolving
the governing People's Power Party. All interlocutors, in a
trend reflective of similar conversations in the region (Ref A),
were unable to describe what a resolution to the long-running
crisis might look like. Moreover, each expected "somebody else"
- the courts, the King, or the military - to lead the way to
ending the stalemate instead of the politicians themselves. CG
underscored to all interlocutors the USG's position that the
situation should be resolved peacefully and within the rule law
and Thailand's democratic institutions. End Summary and Comment.

-------------- --
"Rice Bowl" as Electoral Battleground
-------------- --


2. (U) Consul General traveled to the lower north provinces of
Kamphaeng Phet and Phichit in Thailand's "rice bowl" region
December 1-2. Both provinces have smallish populations and
primarily agrarian economies, and are major rice producers.
Politically, the two provinces could be described as
"battleground" provinces. Phichit's four parliamentary seats
were split in last year's election among three parties, none of
which were the governing People's Power Party (PPP). In the two
elections before that, the results fluctuated. PPP's Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) antecedent took three seats to the opposition
Democrat Party's (DP) one in 2005, which reversed the 2001
result (three DP seats to one TRT seat). In Kamphaeng Phet, TRT

had swept all five seats in 2005, then PPP lost three of them to
the DP in 2007 - the Democrat Party's largest gain in any
northern province last year.

--------------
Royal Action Favored Over New Elections
--------------


3. (C) In Kamphaeng Phet CG met with the province's elected
Senator, former provincial Governor Krit Athitkaew, and
first-term Democrat Party parliamentarian Samran Sriplaengnam,
who had risen up through local political office. (Note: two
other parliamentarians, including a PPP member, were last-minute
no-shows). We met the day before the Constitutional Court
issued its widely expected ruling to dissolve the PPP and two
other coalition parties (Ref B). Both politicians were eagerly
anticipating the ruling, and expressed hope that it would be
followed by a clear political signal from King Bhumibol during
his December 4 annual birthday message, which together would set
the stage for the formation of a national unity government.
They provided no details, however, on what such a government
would look like or how it would operate.


4. (C) Neither politician was in favor of holding new elections
soon. With not quite a year having passed since the last
elections, a new ballot would not be worth the time or expense,
and the results would not likely change much. CG asked whether
the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) would
transform itself into a political party and compete in future
elections, and whether it could make inroads with voters in the
PPP's strongholds in the North and Northeast. Both politicians
doubted that PAD was ready to become a political party, saying
its support base was too diverse. They also doubted any party
could make near-term gains in PPP strongholds. Senator Krit
expressed disdain toward rural voters in the North and
Northeast, dismissing them as "low-class" people who "cling to
(former PM) Thaksin" and do not vote "with their heads." He
spoke in favor of the "new politics" model previously floated by
PAD leaders, which initially called for replacing the elected
parliament with a hybrid body that would have 70% of its members
appointed and the other 30% elected.

-------------- --------------
Democrat Party Vows to Play Harder Next Time
-------------- --------------

CHIANG MAI 00000184 002.2 OF 002




5. (C) The DP's Samran said his party would approach future
elections more aggressively than it did in 2007. He claimed his
party stood down in some urban areas to create room for
candidates from smaller parties to win, in hopes of forming a
DP-led government. But the smaller parties (the five that ended
up joining the PPP-led government) underperformed, badly missing
their projected target of seats, especially in the North and
Northeast. The DP, on the other hand, met its nationwide
targets, Samran said. Next time around, he asserted, his party
would be more aggressive and would not stand down in any
district.


6. (C) Samran lamented how difficult it was to compete with the
PPP financially. He said the DP was hampered in fund-raising by
its internal rule prohibiting the party from promising cabinet
seats to big campaign contributors. Although Samran did not
mention vote-buying (believed to be widely prevalent in Thai
election campaigns),the issue did come up in a meeting the next
day with the Phichit office of the Election Commission of
Thailand (ECT). The office's Director, a former Governor of the
province, spoke openly about the extent to which vote-buying
continues to plague Thai elections. He did not mention the PPP
by name, though that party was clearly the implied target of his
concern.

-------------- --------------
Third Parties Equivocate in Face of Red/Yellow Hardening
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Senator Krit and MP Samran remarked how both sides in
the country's current political stand-off between "red" (the
color favored by pro-government forces) and "yellow" (the
PAD-led opposition's color) had hardened their positions and
made compromise increasingly difficult. The PPP clings to its
electoral mandate and sees no reason to give up its governing
role, whereas the PAD refuses to accord legitimacy to the 2007
election results and thus sees any PPP-led government as
illegitimate. Regarding possible roles for third parties in
resolving the stand-off:

-- The two politicians do not see a role for civil society,
which is just as deeply divided between "red" and "yellow" as
are the country's politicians. The division exists within every
university, every company, and even many families. Senator Krit
related that his extended family, which lives together in a
compound of 11 households, has had to stop taking its
traditional morning meal together for three months now due to
sharp political differences.

-- Senator Krit said the Royal Thai Army (RTA) has "played a
helpful role by not playing a role." He explained that the RTA,
by not fulfilling its formal duty to support the government and
help restore law and order, has played the most appropriate role
it can play.

-- The DP's Samran, while making it clear that his party and
the PAD were two different political animals, did not believe
the DP was in a position to mediate between the "red" and
"yellow."

--------------
Who Wins?
--------------


8. (C) Looking ahead, Krit and Samran anticipated that the PPP
would be weakened by its dissolution, and cautioned against
assuming that all its parliamentarians would join together under
the banner of Puea Thai (formed by pro-Thaksin figures as a
backup vehicle in the event of PPP dissolution). CG heard a
different take, however, from the Governor of Phichit province
the following day. He expects that, in the next election, voter
backlash against PAD's extreme tactics would deliver sympathy
votes for PPP/Puea Thai on the part of Thais who feel resentful
that PAD never gave the PPP-led government a proper chance to
govern.
MORROW