LOWER NORTH'S TAKE ON NEW GOVERNMENT: NEXT MOVE WILL COME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000144

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM TH
SUBJECT: LOWER NORTH'S TAKE ON NEW GOVERNMENT: NEXT MOVE WILL COME
FROM COURTS, NOT POLITICIANS

CHIANG MAI 00000144 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary and Comment
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1. (C) Consul General discussed Thailand's national political
impasse with parliamentarians and governors during a recent trip
to two lower north provinces. While all interlocutors,
including two opposition MPs, saw new Prime Minister Somchai
Wongsawat as an improvement over his mercurial predecessor, none
anticipated that the country's political leaders would be able
to end the stand-off in the near term. Instead, they appeared
to expect the political drama's next chapter to open with a
consequence-forcing event in the form of a Constitutional Court
decision to dissolve the governing People's Power Party and two
of its coalition members - leading to new elections and another
new government. On this backdrop, expectations are low that
issues of importance to the lower north, mostly related to
safeguarding and expanding crop production, will be addressed or
resolved anytime soon. End Summary and Comment.

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CG Gets Lower North's Take on National Politics
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2. (U) Consul General traveled to the lower north provinces of
Sukhothai and Uttaradit September 22-23. He met with both
provinces' governors and as well as three members of parliament
from Sukhothai (see para 9 below for names). Both provinces
have smallish populations and primarily agrarian economies.
Uttaradit has long been a stronghold for the governing People's
Power Party (PPP) and its Thai Rak Thai (TRT) antecedent. Those
parties have held all three of the province's parliamentary
seats since 2001. Sukhothai, on the other hand, has become more
politically mixed. TRT swept all four of the province's seats
in the 2001 and 2005 elections, then lost all four in 2007 - two
to the opposition Democrat Party (DP),and two to smaller
parties that become junior partners of the PPP-led coalition
government. Sukhothai, in fact, is the only one of Thailand's
16 northern provinces in which PPP/TRT lost more than two seats
when comparing the 2007 elections to TRT's maiden showing in

2001.

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A Tale of Two PADs
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3. (C) Sukhothai's two Democrat Party MPs distanced themselves
from the anti-government Popular Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
that has occupied the Government House in Bangkok since late
August. They told CG that many of PAD's demands went too far,
particularly the call for "New Politics" in which a portion of
parliamentarians would be appointed or indirectly elected. At
the same time, PAD's assertion of incompetence by the PPP-led
government of former Prime Minister Samak resonated among many
DP supporters. The DP MPs also credited PAD with helping to
deter the development of what they described as a parliamentary
"dictatorship" under the PPP-led coalition.


4. (C) PAD was characterized less charitably by Sukhothai's MP
from the Chart Thai party, the second largest of PPP's four
coalition partners. He criticized PAD for issuing new and
ever-changing political demands. He suspects PAD has "official"
support and was created as a tool to weaken TRT and its leader,
former Prime Minister Thaksin. He anticipates PAD will fade
away soon now that its original demands - the ouster of PM Samak
and cessation of PPP-led attempts to amend the Constitution -
have been met. PAD's latest demands, such as "New Politics," do
not have wide resonance across the Thai polity.

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New Government: An Improvement . . .
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5. (C) The DP MPs called new PM Somchai Wongsawat "a reasonable
man." However, they doubted his selection of "the same old
faces" for his cabinet would do anything to ease the current
political standoff. The country's political division goes
beyond the composition and policies of the government; at issue
are the role and legacy of former PM Thaksin, intertwined with
the matters of corruption and good governance. The DP members
called for stamping out vote-buying, and breaking the public's
addiction to PPP/TRT populist policies, which they described as
"vote-buying in advance."


6. (C) The Chart Thai MP said his party was 100% behind PM
Somchai. He believes Somchai's easier manner compared to that
of the mercurial Samak, together with the lack of public

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enthusiasm for PAD's "New Politics" proposal, would help the two
sides forge a way out of the immediate standoff at Government
House. In his view, PAD needed a face-saving way out of the
impasse that would still satisfy its core supporters, and
Somchai could help PAD attain that.

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. . . But Short-Lived
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7. (C) Nonetheless, all three MPs, as well as both governors CG
met with, considered the Somchai government to be short-lived.
The Uttaradit governor expected that upcoming Constitutional
Court rulings on electoral improprieties committed by PPP, Chart
Thai, and a third coalition party would result in the
dissolution of all three parties, followed by new elections.
The Chart Thai MP also expressed concern about the looming
court-ordered dissolution.


8. (C) The political stand-off in Bangkok, and the low
expectations for the new government, are reasons to doubt that
issues of importance to the lower north will be addressed or
resolved in the near term. While CG's interlocutors reported
that the region's farmers were reaping the benefits of higher
produce prices, especially for rice, other concerns loom. Lack
of investment in reservoirs, irrigation systems, and flood
control continues to be a threat to safeguarding and expanding
crop production. Farming price supports are another unmet
concern, as is government help in breaking down agricultural
trade barriers in order to access foreign markets. Investment
in the education sector and promotion of the tourism sector were
also mentioned. The two governors asserted that the
professional civil service (of which both are members) had the
wherewithal to administer most of the region's needs, but
admitted that the largest projects would not move forward
without the backing of the central government.

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Sources
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9. (U) The officials noted above (all male) are:

Wirat Wiriyaphong, Democrat Party MP, Sukhothai
Samphan Tangbeenchapol, Democrat Party MP, Sukhothai
Somchet Limpraphan, Chat Thai MP, Sukhothai
Wanchai Suthin, Governor of Sukhothai Province
Thawatchai Faak-angkun, Governor of Uttaradit Province
MORROW