Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHIANGMAI133
2008-09-03 10:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chiang Mai
Cable title:  

NORTHERN LABOR UNIONS, STUDENTS AND MEDIA DIVIDED OVER PAD

Tags:  PREL PGOV ELAB SOCI TH 
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PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0133/01 2471008
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P R 031008Z SEP 08
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0831
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/2/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ELAB SOCI TH
SUBJECT: NORTHERN LABOR UNIONS, STUDENTS AND MEDIA DIVIDED OVER PAD

REF: A. BANGKOK 2610

B. BANGKOK 2592

C. Bangkok 2546

CHIANG MAI 00000133 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
------------------------------------
Summary and Comment
------------------------------------

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TAGS: PREL PGOV ELAB SOCI TH
SUBJECT: NORTHERN LABOR UNIONS, STUDENTS AND MEDIA DIVIDED OVER PAD

REF: A. BANGKOK 2610

B. BANGKOK 2592

C. Bangkok 2546

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
--------------
Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (SBU) Labor unions in northern Thailand are split, with some
supporting the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) and others supporting Prime Minister Samak's government,
though the more vocal ones support PAD. Over 1,000 PAD
supporters have traveled from the north to Bangkok to join the
PAD demonstrations so far, many of whom belong to labor unions.
Meanwhile, Chiang Mai's Provincial Governor led a peaceful
pro-government peaceful rally that attracted approximately 2,000
participants. Reactions in the media and among our contacts
have varied, with some outlets less critical of PAD than others.
Royal Thai Army (RTA) Commander Anuphong's level-headed
performance has garnered positive reviews, though some analysts
see PAD as having the upper hand.


2. (C) Comment: So far, we have no indication that supporters
of PAD based in the north are doing anything more than traveling
to Bangkok to join the ongoing protests. However, if government
security forces crack down violently, that could change quickly.
Those workers in the north who are sympathetic to PAD could
attempt more significant action, including cutting off utilities
and other services in northern provinces. Such steps would
entail high risk, given the likelihood of backlash from the
northern populace that has consistently been a stronghold for
the current governing coalition and its Thai Rak Thai
antecedent. End Summary and Comment.

--------------
PAD's Support in the North
--------------


3. (C) PAD's General Secretary for northern Thailand, Somchok
Chanthong, who doubles as the regional Secretary General of the
State Union Enterprise Confederation (an organization known to
oppose the current government, and which boasts 200,000 members

in 43 state enterprises) told us on September 2 that his focus
right now is on sending PAD supporters to Bangkok to participate
in the demonstrations. He said a total of 500 PAD supporters
from the northern provinces traveled to Bangkok the previous
week, with an additional 700-800 having begun their journey
since the evening of September 1. An additional 80-100
protestors would travel on September 3 by trains arranged in
cooperation with the Railway Workers Union, he added.


4. (C) Somchok, who works at a power plant in Lampang Province
that supplies electricity to much of the north, northeast, and
parts of Bangkok, claimed that if the government ever resorted
to violence against PAD, the plant, which is the biggest in
Thailand and produces 3900 megawatts a day, would do its utmost
to cut off power. Such action, he asserted, would occur on a
broader scale than current actions by some utility workers
targeting government installations in arrears on their bills by
three or more months.


5. (C) Somchok could not say how many of those who had traveled
to Bangkok were employees of the plant or EGAT (Electricity
Generating Authority of Thailand),noting that many did not want
to be identified as EGAT employees for fear of retribution by
their state-owned enterprise employer. (Comment: Somchok
himself is an EGAT employee, and based on our conversation with
him, we suspect that a significant number of PAD supporters who
have gone to Bangkok also work for EGAT.)


6. (C) For their part, some university students and faculty
have begun networking to pressure the Government to refrain from
using violence. On September 2, a group of Fine Arts students
at Chiang Mai University that tried to hang up banners decrying
the Government's use of force was eventually disbursed by campus
security personnel. (Comment: The Dean of the Fine Arts
Faculty, who also serves as the President of the "Midnight
University" informal political grouping, is ardently opposed to
PAD, making it all the more surprising that his students would
come out against the Government's actions. Last week, Midnight
University released a statement criticizing PAD for using force
in its seizure of the NBT television station. Members later
told us privately that the PAD was "destroying the media.")
Meanwhile, the Rural Physicians Club, which is widely respected
in the medical field, released a statement on August 29
criticizing the Government for adopting violent measures to deal
with the crisis, and calling on it to resign. (Note: There had
not been any violence reported at the time this statement was
released.)

CHIANG MAI 00000133 002.2 OF 003



--------------
Who's on the Other Side?
--------------


7. (C) In stark contrast to those workers and academics
supporting PAD, a contact at the State Enterprise Employees
Union (a generally pro-government labor body) told us on
September 2 that union members in the northern provinces would
not join a strike. Heads of state enterprises in the north had
issued guidelines to their staffs informing them that the
performance evaluation and pay-increase eligibility of anyone
who joined a strike would be negatively impacted, he said.
Characterizing those unions that are threatening a strike as
"hard-headed" (such as the State Union Enterprise Confederation
noted in para 4 above),he emphasized that any politically
motivated strike in support of PAD would be frowned upon by his
union as unrelated to labor issues.


8. (C) Under pressure from the Ministry of Interior to send
supporters of the pro-government Democratic Alliance Against
Dictatorship (DAAD) to Bangkok to participate in
counter-demonstrations, or to organize rallies in their
provinces in support of the Government, the Chiang Mai
Provincial Governor organized a walk from Chiang Mai's railway
station to the city moat on September 1. Approximately 2,000
participants joined, including high-ranking military officials
and students. Contacts told us that some members of parliament
from the governing People's Power Party (PPP) were dissatisfied
with the level of participation, expecting a greater turn-out in
a province as big as Chiang Mai.

-------------- --------------
What About the Pundits and Politicians?
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Deputy House Speaker and PPP Chiang Rai MP Samart
Kaewmechai was critical of PM Samak, noting to us that he had
"failed" to handle the crisis. In the same breath, he lauded
General Anuphong's "political maturity," citing Anuphong's
measured statements at the September 2 press conference (Ref A).
Samart said that Anuphong's unwillingness to use the military
at this time shows a maturing of Thai politics, and sends a
clear signal that the armed forces do not politically support
either side. He assessed that the evidence of the involvement
of some PPP MPs in instigating the clash between DAAD and PAD
demonstrators at the Makkhawan Bridge in the wee hours of
September 2 was "credible," opining that DAAD sparked the
encounter to give PM Samak justification for issuing the
September 2 emergency decree.


10. (C) Chiang Mai University political science professor Tanet
Charoenmuang focused his comments to us on the way forward,
speculating that negotiations between General Anuphong and the
PAD would be necessary to resolve the crisis. These talks, he
said, would hinge on two factors: how much unity there is among
the five core PAD leaders; and how much flexibility Anuphong
would be given to negotiate. The crisis might not be nearing a
resolution, he intimated, observing that even PM Samak's
resignation might not be enough to satisfy PAD at this point.

--------------
And the Press?
--------------


11. (SBU) Northern media reactions have been mixed, with the
regional Thai News daily running editorials on September 2
characterizing the Samak Government as "incapable" and not
solving the country's problems. Other pieces in the same
publication focused on the problems a strike would cause,
particularly in the transportation sector. A third column
called for the Government to dissolve Parliament and hold new
elections, arguing that this move would both preserve a
democratic system and keep Thailand's economy from worsening.
The author then asked rhetorically if PAD would accept a
solution that brought back the same faces to the cabinet, and
intimated that Thailand would be "doomed" if this were the
outcome.


12. (SBU) For its part, the Northern Citizen weekly magazine
focused on the role of the media, criticizing PAD for attacking
the NBT television station in Bangkok on August 26 (Ref C).
Conversely, a high-ranking staff member at the magazine reported
that some journalists blamed NBT, at least in part, for PAD's
demonstrations, noting that the station needed to examine its
"role and actions" leading up to the attack. The magazine's
editors also said that NBT needed to act as a public source of
information, rather than the Government's "political tool." The

CHIANG MAI 00000133 003.2 OF 003


Chiang Mai News daily gave extensive coverage on September 2 to
DAAD's counter-demonstrations, with editorials characterizing
PAD's protests as a "nuisance and disturbance" and calling on
its readers to support DAAD.


13. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
ANDERSON