SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: IMPLEMENTATION STALLED ON IDEAS FROM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000120

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PTER PHUM TH
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: IMPLEMENTATION STALLED ON IDEAS FROM
PEACE TALKS

REF: A. BANGKOK 2410 (FEWER CASES OF ABUSE)

B. BANGKOK 2226 (NO CLEAR PATH TO STABILITY)

C. CHIANG MAI 79 (POL TURBULENCE PUSHES SOUTH TO BACK BURNER)

CHIANG MAI 00000120 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary and Comment
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1. (S/NF) Consul General met for the first time since late May
with Mark Tamthai, the Thai Government's point-man for secret
talks between the RTG and southern insurgents. Tamthai said:

-- implementation of a pilot "peace zone" in Yala city, worked
out during the talks in May, is stalled due to indecision in the
National Security Council and reluctance by the Royal Thai Army
to take the lead in the peace process;

-- the peace zone plan would include the release of a
long-jailed Muslim religious leader, a decision that would
likely require Cabinet approval;

-- the marked drop in human rights abuses committed by RTG
security forces in recent months (Ref A) is largely thanks to
RTA Commander-in-Chief Anupong's personal commitment and
constant preaching against such acts; and

-- the next round of talks is scheduled for late August at a
location to be determined.


2. (S/NF) Comment: Tamthai is encouraged by what he cites as
consensus within the RTG that a non-military solution is needed
to end the violence in the south - though he admits there is no
agreement on what such a solution should look like. He is
frustrated at the lack of progress in implementation of the
pilot peace zone plan and other confidence-building measures,
which he attributes to three factors: national political
stalemate (Ref B),indecision and poor leadership in the NSC,
and General Anupong's reluctance to have the RTA out in front in
the peace process. End Summary and Comment.

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Pilot Peace Zone Plan Outlined
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3. (S/NF) CG met August 13 in Chiang Mai with Dr. Mark Tamthai,
Director of Payap University's Institute of Religion, Culture
and Peace and point-man for the RTG's secret dialogue with
southern insurgents. Tamthai reported little progress since we
had last met in late May, following his trip to Bali where he
had met with insurgents to work out a plan to create a pilot
"peace zone" in the southern city of Yala (Ref C). According to
Tamthai, the peace zone would essentially be a 45-day
cease-fire, subject to extension if both sides approved. A key
element of the plan would be RTG willingness to release from
prison a local Muslim leader known as Baba Betong (as heard).
Betong reportedly is a well known, elderly religious figure who
has been imprisoned for some 10 years. His role, if released,
would be to sermonize among the local populace in support of the
cease-fire - a role insurgent leaders believe he could do well.
The cease-fire would also, of course, have to be honored by RTG
security forces and area insurgent commanders. Tamthai
cautioned that, even if this all came to pass, the peace zone
could still be imperiled by outside spoilers who could try to
infiltrate Yala and violate the cease-fire.

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Lack of RTG Leadership
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4. (S/NF) Tamthai expressed dismay that the National Security
Council has done nothing to implement to the pilot plan or
advance other elements of the peace process. He singled out NSC
Secretary General Surapon Puanaiyaka, who during three months in
office has not approved funding for any program under NSC
auspices, and keeps rebuffing Tamthai's proposals by saying he
needs more clarity before moving forward. Tamthai, who has long
been critical of Surapon as overly cautious and no friend of the
peace process (Ref D),expressed hope that Surapon might soon
lose his NSC job. The two strikes against him, Tamthai said,
were mishandling (unspecified) of the ongoing Preah Vihear

CHIANG MAI 00000120 002.2 OF 002


temple dispute with Cambodia, and that fact that his political
backer, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has fled
abroad.


5. (S/NF) For implementation of the pilot peace zone plan,
Tamthai has turned his hopes to RTA Commander-in-Chief Anupong
Paochinda - with whom he is to meet in the coming days. Tamthai
has long praised Anupong and his commitment to the peace process
and the need to find a non-military solution to the south.
However, Anupong firmly believes that leadership of the peace
process must come from the civilian government, not the Army.
Thus he is reluctant to approach the Cabinet to pitch the peace
zone plan. Tamthai is now seeking to persuade Anupong to
implement the Yala cease-fire as an "internal" RTA operation
that would not require an approach to the Cabinet. However, he
admitted the difficulty of bypassing the Cabinet given the
plan's call for the release of Baba Betong. Tamthai added that
former interim Prime Minister and current Privy Council member
Surayud Chulanont, who oversaw the peace process during his time
as PM, would also be discretely weighing in with General Anupong
in support of implementing the pilot cease-fire.

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RTG Talking to the Right People?
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6. (S/NF) Tamthai believes the pilot peace zone plan would be
an important test for both the government and insurgents, and
thus a key confidence-building measure. If it were to work, he
said, then the RTG would know it was indeed engaging the right
people in the secret peace talks - those who can exercise
control over insurgent military commanders. CG asked about
skeptics in the RTG or elsewhere who doubted those involved in
the talks were the "right people." Tamthai replied that the
talks have been going on long enough such that the insurgent
representatives have been thoroughly checked out by RTG (and
Malaysian) intelligence, all of whom conclude these are indeed
the "right people." The only remaining skeptics, Tamthai said,
were various individuals in the RTG who were involved in the
issue long ago when the players were different.

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Anupong Credited for Drop in Human Rights Abuses
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7. (S/NF) CG noted that observers of late have reported a
marked drop in reports of human rights abuses committed by
members of security forces fighting the insurgency. Tamthai
agreed, and gave significant credit for this to General
Anupong's personal commitment and constant preaching against
such acts.

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Next Round of Talks in Late August
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8. (S/NF) Since the late May round of talks in Bali - which was
actually a stripped-down working meeting with Tamthai as the
sole RTG participant - only one additional round has taken
place. This was also a stripped-down version, which was held in
Kuala Lumpur in July. According to Tamthai, the July meeting
had little substantive content and was really just a meeting
"for the sake of meeting, and to keep things going."
Participants discussed logistical matters, such as one insurgent
participant's need to renew his Thai passport, which he needs to
travel from his base in Malaysia to the peace talks held in
various third countries. The next round of talks with full
participation is scheduled for late August in a location to be
determined. At this meeting, the two sides will not discuss the
pilot peace zone plan (which is already on the table),but
rather will look at larger, longer-term issues such as autonomy
formulas for the southernmost provinces.


9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok.
MORROW