FILM STAR SET TO SHAKE UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000081

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TAGS: PGOV PREL IN

SUBJECT: FILM STAR SET TO SHAKE UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS

REF: A) CHENNAI 028 B) 2007 CHENNAI 640


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Andhra Pradesh's media is rife with rumors that
Telugu film superstar Chiranjeevi is set to form his own political
party. With an enormous and dedicated fan base the action hero will
immediately be a force to be reckoned with. In a recent meeting
with Consulate officers, Chiranjeevi strongly hinted that he would
run for public office while refusing to definitively say he would do
so. Andhra Pradesh state elections will be held in May 2009, and it
seems that Chiranjeevi is planning to follow in the footsteps of
another Telugu film star -- NT Rama Rao -- who in 1983 handed the
Congress party its first defeat in the state less than a year after
entering politics himself. Chiranjeevi's entry into politics could
scramble the state's politics and impact the United Progressive
Alliance's chances to hold onto to its large share of Andhra
Pradesh's 42 parliamentary seats in upcoming national elections.
END SUMMARY.

ANDHRA PRADESH'S MATINEE IDOL THINKING ABOUT POLITICS
--------------


2. (U) Chiranjeevi (actual name Konidella Sivasankara Varaprasad)
has been a superstar in the Telugu language film industry since the
early 1980s. One of India's highest paid actors, he has more than
140 films to his credit. He has crossed over to Hindi-language
Bollywood films and has been awarded the 'Padma Bhushan,' India's
third highest civilian honor. It is difficult to overstate
Chiranjeevi's popularity in his native Andhra Pradesh. Rumors that
Chiranjeevi planned to enter politics have periodically surfaced for
years. The intensity of the rumors picked up in 2007 and people
close to the actor told the media that he was considering whether to
take the plunge.


3. (SBU) On January 23 the actor met with Consulate officers while
visiting to renew his visa. Chiranjeevi said that he has been
thinking of forming his own political party in light of "demands" by
his fans he do so. Although he was coy, saying he had not made up
his mind (and assiduously refusing to make any definitive statement
on the matter),he gave strong indications that he is moving
forward. Chiranjeevi told us that that his surrogates are surveying
the political scene and to expect an announcement in April or May.
He mentioned that in a recent visit to the U.S. he met with
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. When we responded that
Governor Schwarzenegger was a good person for him to talk with about
successfully transitioning from film to politics, Chiranjeevi simply
smiled. (NOTE: Chiranjeevi also told us that Governor
Schwarzenegger, whose plans to visit India in late 2007 were
postponed, plans to visit Hyderabad in March or April. END NOTE.)



4. (SBU) On February 11 Pol/Econoff met with Chiranjeevi again.
Chiranjeevi appeared distraught and explained that one of his fans
had committed suicide. The fan left a note saying he killed himself
because he could no longer stand waiting for his hero to decide
whether to enter politics. Chiranjeevi said "many people are
counting on me." He added that he will decide "very soon." When
asked whether there is sufficient time between now and the 2009
state elections for him to create a political party that would be
competitive with the ruling Congress and the opposition Telugu Desam
Party (TDP),Chiranjeevi tellingly referred to NTR -- the
affectionate nickname of NT Rama Rao the Telugu film star turned
politician who founded the TDP in 1982. Chiranjeevi pointed out
that NTR was able to become the first non-Congress Chief Minister of
Andhra Pradesh less than a year after announcing his decision to
form the TDP.

ANDHRA PRADESH'S OWN SCHWARZENEGGER?
--------------


5. (SBU) Between his massive fan base and NTR's phenomenal
political rise in the 1980s, the prospect of Chiranjeevi getting
into politics has fueled speculation that the actor could be the
next Chief Minister. A businessman and Chiranjeevi supporter was
confident that Chiranjeevi would be able to assembly an outright
majority if he decides to run. He said caste considerations favor
Chiranjeevi, who hails from the numerically strong Kappu community.
The Kappus, who have long been politically marginalized, will
readily line up behind the actor. Chiranjeevi, he said, will also
draw votes from Other Backward Caste (OBC) communities aside from
the Kappus. Other contacts agree that caste considerations favor
Chiranjeevi and add that his film star popularity will also help.


6. (SBU) But political analysts have their doubts about the
comparisons between Chiranjeevi and NTR. First, they say that
although Chiranjeevi is extremely popular, he does not have NTR's
stature. NTR, they note, played the role of numerous Hindu gods in
his films where Chiranjeevi is simply an action star. They add that
NTR founded the TDP at the height of discontent with more than
thirty years of uninterrupted Congress control of the state;
Chiranjeevi enters politics after almost two decades of frequent
changes of power between Congress and the TDP. They also note that
NTR came to power by promoting populist programs (especially a
hugely popular two rupees per kilogram of rice offer) but that
Chiranjeevi will not be able to best Congress on this front as
current Chief Minister YSR Reddy (Congress) is the epitome of
populism, having implemented a dizzying array of programs for the
rural poor (ref B).


7. (SBU) COMMENT: It is an open question whether Chiranjeevi will
be able to achieve the quick success that NTR did. But there is no
doubt that his entry would further scramble a political scene
already confused by the issue of whether Andhra Pradesh's
historically neglected Telangana region should become a separate
state (ref A). Given the caste considerations and Chiranjeevi's
huge fan base, we think that he has the potential to have a big
impact on the state-level elections, especially if he is able to
pull in as many TDP and Congress party defectors as his surrogates
tell us they expect to draw. Still, it is far too early to say
whether he could actually become Chief Minister. It will be hard
for him to win or get through electoral alliances the 148 out of 294
seats in the state assembly he needs. With respect to Andhra
Pradesh's 42 parliamentary seats, Chiranjeevi evidenced little
interest in the national political scene in our conversations with
him, focusing singularly on the possibility of being Chief Minister.
History dictates that his fledgling party will need to join with
one of the national political alliances in order to be competitive
for parliamentary seats. For the time being, he is saying that he
will not join with Congress, TDP, or the Bharatiya Janata Party.
But, if he does ultimately jump into politics, that position will
have to change as the parliamentary elections draw near. END
COMMENT.

HOPPER