COMMUNISTS WANT A "THIRD ALTERNATIVE" TO BJP AND CONGRESS

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000077

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SENSITIVE

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG IN
SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS WANT A "THIRD ALTERNATIVE" TO BJP AND CONGRESS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M))
politburo member from Kerala Pinarayi Vijayan, told post that his
party would work to form "a third alternative" to the coalitions led
by the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) before India's next parliamentary elections. He said the
party would not dilute its opposition to U.S.-India civil nuclear
cooperation under any circumstances. In pursuing a "third
alternative" the CPI(M) is preparing to abandon the weakened and
dispirited Indian National Congress and stave off the political
oblivion the CPI(M) faces after the next parliamentary elections.
Speaking about his party's problems in Kerala, Vijayan said that the
recently concluded party state conference would result in a more
coherent and effective CPI(M)-led government in the state,
indicating that he feels he has subdued his rival Chief Minister
Achuthanandan's more "old school" faction. If Vijayan is right and
Achuthanandan's more dogmatic impulses will be reined in, it could
mean modest improvements in Kerala's investment climate. END
SUMMARY

LOOKING FOR A "THIRD ALTERNATIVE"
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2. (SBU) CPI(M) Politburo Member and Kerala Party Secretary Pinarayi
Vijayan recently told post that the CPI(M) will seriously pursue the
formation of a "third alternative" in the run up to the next
parliamentary elections. Vijayan said the "third alternative" would
be distinct from the either the Congress-led United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) or the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Asked whether this meant the Left would enter into a partnership
with the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA or "Third
Front"),formed last year by a group of regional parties, Vijayan
demurred, saying it is too early to speculate on the shape of the
new alliance. (NOTE: On February 26, shortly after Vijayan spoke
with post, CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat addressed a
UNPA-sponsored farmer's rally in New Delhi, where he reportedly said
"It is my appeal to the UNPA leaders that the time has come for us
to work towards the formation of a third alternative." END NOTE.)
Vijayan also refused to speculate whether the Left would support the
Congress in a post-election scenario if that was the only way to
keep the BJP out of power.


3. (SBU) Vijayan's comments came in the wake of CPI(M) General
Secretary Prakash Karat's February 11 speech to the Kerala CPI(M)

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state conference in which he said that the third alternative would
be founded on three principles: consistent opposition to
communalism, agreement on a common minimum program, and a firm
commitment to an independent (read anti-U.S.) foreign policy. In
his speech, Karat tore into the UPA for its "opportunistic stand" on
communalism, its "neo-liberal economic agenda," its evolving
strategic alliance with the United States, and its growing military
cooperation with Israel.

OLD SCHOOL CHIEF MINISTER SIDELINED
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4. (SBU) Asked about the possible impact of the recently concluded
CPI(M) State Conference, Vijayan told post that the leftist
government would now function more effectively and cohesively.
Vijayan said that on the investment front, the government would do
better going forward. Media reports highlighted that Vijayan's
faction had trounced Chief Minister Achuthanandan's more "purist"
communist faction at the State Conference. But reports also noted
that the Karat-led Politburo prevented a complete wipeout of
Achuthanandan's faction, against the wishes of the majority of the
elected Kerala party officials. Although Achuthanandan was spared
the humiliation of a rumored mid-term ouster, journalists believe
that he was told to follow the state party's orders and to create a
climate more conducive to investment.

NO COMPROMISE ON CIV-NUKE DEAL
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5. (SBU) Vijayan told post that the CPI(M) will not dilute its
opposition to the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal under any
circumstances. "We have concluded that instead of a partnership
between two equals where give and take are possible, it is one in
which America would dictate terms to India," he said. Vijayan said
the Left would withdraw its support to the UPA government if it goes
ahead with the agreement.

THIRD ALTERNATIVE A FACE-SAVING TACTIC FOR NEXT ELECTIONS
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6. (SBU) Kerala media sources pointed out that the CPI(M)'s new
position on the "third alternative" seems to be a tactic compelled
by the party's electoral prospects. In the three states where the
CPI(M) has a major presence -- West Bengal, Kerala, and Tripura --
its principal opposition is the Congress party. Although they have
supported the Congress-led UPA from outside the alliance, the CPI(M)
has opposed many UPA policy initiatives and it would be hard for
CPI(M) leaders to demand another five years of the same from their
restless members. By moving away from the Congress the CPI(M) also
hopes to dodge the anti-incumbency wave which they think will swamp
Congress and the UPA. Still, many media contacts believe that the
Left parties could easily lose more than 20 of their 61 seats in the
next parliamentary elections.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: There also are broader strategic considerations
at play. CPI(M) leaders are engaged in a deliberate effort to craft
an ideologically cohesive alternative to the UPA and the NDA
grounded in leftist economic policies. But their past statements
indicate a fear that they might never get the regional parties --
who focus on gaining and maintaining power at the expense of any
real ideological content -- to commit to a serious pursuit of the
Left's economic agenda. In pursuing a "third alternative" the CPI-M
is preparing to abandon the weakened and dispirited Congress Party.
The third alternative approach is also an effort to stave off the
political oblivion the CPI(M) faces after the next parliamentary
elections. The CPI(M) no doubt has keen memories of its virtual
irrelevance on the national stage during the National Democratic
Alliance's 1994-2000 regime. With the resurgent BJP looking better
prepared each day to overthrow Congress, the CPI(M) is exploring a
new set of allies to avoid the fate it suffered in 1999-2004. The
problem the CPI-M faces is that most of its prospective "third
alternative" partners - Chandrababu Naidu, Om Prakash Chautala,
Jayalalithaa, and Mulayum Singh Yadav - are former BJP allies who
could quickly abandon the CPI(M) to return to the NDA fold if the
BJP does well in the parliamentary elections.


8. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: In Kerala, Vijayan's emergence from the
State Conference as the undisputed leader of the state CPI(M) has
boosted the hopes of those who want the state to more actively court
investment. But those hopes may soon turn to disappointment.
Vijayan may have won the battle, but by stopping Vijayan's faction
from sacking Chief Minister Achuthanandan the Karat-led politburo
ensured that any major changes will be hard to implement. For
example, Vijayan's victory certainly will not alter the state's
emphasis on environmental considerations, which lead it to court
investment only in those sectors it deems "harmless," such as
information technology and tourism. Manufacturing and processing
industries will continue to get the cold shoulder from the state
government. At best, expect a government slightly more aggressive
in its pursuit of investment in IT and tourism. But it will still
be too little, too late in the competitive environment of South
India, where neighboring Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh
all have their doors wide open to investment. END COMMENT.


9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

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