INDIA'S THIRD FRONT LOOKS TO AN ALLIANCE WITH LEFT PARTIES

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000073

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON IN

SUBJECT: INDIA'S THIRD FRONT LOOKS TO AN ALLIANCE WITH LEFT PARTIES

REF: 07 NEW DELHI 2678


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A senior leader of the United National
Progressive Alliance (the "UNPA" or "Third Front") told post that
they are moving towards an alliance with India's Left parties.
Former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu explained
that the UNPA and Left parties are motivated by a common concern
over the failure of economic reforms to deliver benefits to India's
poor, especially in rural areas. His comments are in line with
recent moves indicated increasing coordination between the UNPA and
Left parties. END SUMMARY.

NAIDU SAYS THIRD FRONT LOOKING TO ALLY WITH LEFT
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2. (SBU) In a February 19 meeting, Chandrababu Naidu, leader of
Andhra Pradesh's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) told Charge d'Affaires
White that the UNPA was moving towards an alliance with India's left
parties. Naidu is one of the UNPA's principal leaders; he hosted
the alliance's formal announcement in June 2007 at his home in
Hyderabad. Naidu said that "things are moving the direction" of a
Left/UNPA alliance because they share a commitment to "more
inclusive growth" in India.


3. (SBU) Naidu said "many Indians have been left out of the
benefits of economic reforms." He pointed to farmer suicides and
the increasing gap between India's ultra-rich -- noting recent
reports about the number of billionaires in India -- as evidence of
the need to more evenly spread the benefits of growth. Naidu
approvingly cited the U.S. estate tax as an example of policies
designed to reduce inequality: "We need to look at something like
that." He said that he believes that India is "evolving into a
modern economy" but that the UNPA and Left parties agree that during
this process the government must help rural people through the
transition. Naidu added that the ruling United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) has not done enough to help rural India.

DMK INSIDER SAYS FALL ELECTIONS A POSSIBILITY
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4. (SBU) Separately, DMK Member of Parliament Kanimozhi (who is
also the daughter of DMK chief M. Karunanidhi) surveyed the
political situation for the Charge in a February 20 meeting in
Chennai. Kanimozhi, who serves as her father's (and thus her
party's) unofficial spokesperson in New Delhi, said it is possible
that there will be early parliamentary elections this fall, but
added that things will become much clearer after upcoming elections
in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. When asked about
relations between her DMK party and the UPA's dominant partner, the
Indian National Congress (INC) Party, Kanimozhi simply shrugged and
said relations between the two are "okay." She made clear that the
INC is heavily dependent on DMK support for electoral success in
Tamil Nadu, adding that Union Finance Minister Chidambaram ("not a
man of the people" in Kanimozhi's estimation) could not win his
Tamil Nadu constituency without the DMK.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: Naidu's comments on the prospects of a UNPA/Left
alliance are in line with recent demonstrations of increasing warmth
between the two sides. In the fall of 2007, the UNPA and Left
parties agreed to coordinate their opposition in Parliament to the
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative. This year Naidu
has joined with other UNPA leaders in organizing a series of
well-publicized rallies decrying the "anti-farmer policies of the
UPA government" to which Left party leaders have reportedly been
invited. Although the Left was dismissive of the UNPA when it was
first formed (reftel),they seem to be moving towards a partnership
in the next national elections. Naidu and his TDP party were turned
out of power in Andhra Pradesh in 2004 largely due to charges of
lack of attention to farmers and the agricultural sector. His
conversion to the cause of farmers and others who have not benefited
from India's hi-tech led economic boom - a boom that Naidu is
credited with fostering in the state -- show his sensitivity to the
issue and, we expect, a resolve not to lose again when Andhra
Pradesh returns to the polls in 2009.


6. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: Naidu's TDP once allied with the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); it was a part of the BJP-led National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Delhi from 1999-2004. By
flirting with the Left and other UNPA partners, Naidu has distanced
himself from the BJP in hopes of appealing to Andhra Pradesh's
sizable Muslim vote. Despite his statements that he will not join
with the BJP because he opposes the BJP's "communal" politics, it
remains possible that Naidu's TDP would rejoin the BJP-led NDA if
the alliance finds itself in a position to form the government in
Delhi after the next elections. One alliance that we can rule out
for certain for Naidu is with the INC, which forms his principal
opposition within the state and with whom he has a rancorous
relationship. END COMMENT.

7. (U) This cable was cleared by Deputy Chief of Mission White.

HOPPER