BJP SET TO TIGHTEN ITS GRIP ON KARNATAK IN DECEMBER 27

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000413

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: BJP SET TO TIGHTEN ITS GRIP ON KARNATAK IN DECEMBER 27
BY-ELECTIONS

REF: A) CHENNAI 89, B) CHENNAI 192, C) CHENNAI 315, D) CHENNAI 326
E) NEW DELHI 2513


1. (SBU) Summary: The Bharthiya Janata Party (BJP) looks poised to
tightenits grip on the reins of Karnataka's government onDecember
27, when the state holds seven by-electons (ref A). The BJP
currently has 110 of the 224 seats in the legislative assembly, and
was able to form a government (becoming the first durable, BJP
government in South India) following the May elections with the
support of several of the assembly's six independent members (ref
B). Even though the BJP appears likely to do well in the
by-elections and thereby secure a solid majority in the legislative
assembly, the party faces further problems. Fissures in the state's
party apparatus may already be appearing, as those who helped
finance the party's rise in the state begin to feel sidelined by its
ideologues. End Summary.

By-elections needed to fill defectors' seats
--------------


2. (SBU) Karnataka's state elections brought to power the first BJP
government in South India in May, when the party won 110 of the
assembly's 224 seats, outdistancing handily its main rivals, the
Congress Party (80 seats),and Janata Dal-Secular (JDS, 28 seats).
With the support of several of the assembly's six independent
members, the BJP formed a government and its leader, B.S.
Yeddiyurappa, became Chief Minister. Soon thereafter, three
Congress members and five from the JDS ditched their parties to join
the BJP (obtaining attractive positions as the heads of ministries
in the process). India's "anti-defection" law requires these rebels
to resign and re-contest their seats in by-elections. (One of the
defectors' seats is mired in a legal challenge and will not be
contested on December 27.)

BJP likes its chances
--------------


3. (SBU) Political analysts from a leading national daily told us
that the BJP should do well in the by-elections. Not only were the
now-BJP candidates local strongmen who would be likely to win as a
member of any party, they said, but the appeal of having a candidate
from the governing party should also increase their chances.


4. (SBU) In addition, they noted that the opposition parties are in
disarray in the state. Siddaramiah, a key Congress figure and
member of the Kuruba community, which has a heavy presence in
several of the by-election constituencies, has not campaigned for
Congress candidates and several of his supporters are now actively
working on behalf of the BJP. They also told us that JDS
supporters, disenchanted with the candidates selected by the party's
bosses (including former Prime Minister Deve Gowda),are defecting
en masse to the BJP, reducing the ability of the party to engage in
typical labor-intensive campaigning. Even a Congress Party member
of the state's legislative assembly, usually prone to
over-estimating his party's electoral chances, conceded that
Congress will struggle to avoid embarrassment in the by-elections.

The enemy within?
--------------


5. (SBU) If, as expected, the BJP solidifies its grip on state power
in the by-elections, then its greatest challenges may well come from
within. A local political analyst told us that about half of the
BJP's state legislators are former Congress and JDS members who do
not generally subscribe to the strands of the party's ideology
emphasizing Hindu nationalism (often referred to as "hindutva"). He
said that BJP pro-hindutva ideologues (as well as ideological
supporters within the larger pro-hindutva Sangh Parivar movement to
which the BJP belongs) feel themselves being sidelined, which may
encourage them to engage in pro-hindutva activities that may
alienate other BJP members and supporters. He also suggested that
the attacks on churches in the state in September (refs C-E) may
have been part of this phenomenon, an interpretation shared by the
journalists we spoke with. (Comment: The leadership of Karnataka's
Bajrang Dal organization -- also part of the Sangh Parivar --
claimed responsibility for the attacks. Both state and national BJP
leaders criticized the violence and the Bajrang Dal, and Karnataka's
BJP government increased police protection for churches. End
Comment.)


6. (SBU) A Bangalore-based journalist for a national daily told us
that the BJP's inexperience in governing was becoming a problem.
She noted that previous governments (either JDS- or Congress-led)
were better able to cover their tracks when taking bribes or
engaging in other corrupt practices, distancing key politicians from
potentially incriminating acts. The BJP politicians, she said, are
not necessarily more corrupt than their opponents, but are far less
adept at it. She opined that this, over time, will give opponents
evidence to use against the government.

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7. (SBU) A former politician (an ex-member of both the JDS and
Mayawati's BSP) told us that Yeddiyurappa's leadership style, which
tends to ignore those outside of a tight inner circle, was also
grating on the nerves of other BJP leaders. He suggested that some
of these BJP lieutenants were already plotting to leave the BJP and
form their own party.


8. (SBU) Another analyst told us that another challenge to
Yeddiyurappa may come from Karunakara Reddy, an iron-ore mining
magnate who has provided a big chunk of the BJP's funding in
Karnataka. Reddy is presently Minister for Tourism, and is not very
happy about being given a peripheral post in return for the wads of
money he has bestowed on the party, according to the analyst, who
says that Reddy sees himself as a future Chief Minister. The ex-JDS
and BSP politician told us that the BJP plans to move Reddy to New
Delhi if it wins the upcoming national elections, due before May.
If the BJP fails to form the next national government, he opined,
Reddy may well take his money -- and a fair number of state
legislators inclined to support him -- to form his own party.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) Barring several unexpected upsets, the BJP should
consolidate its grip on power in Karnataka in the December 27
by-elections. If much of the political chatter we've heard from our
interlocutors is true, however, politics in the state should remain
interesting, as factions within the BJP vie for power while Congress
and the JDS continue their slow implosions in the run-up to national
elections.

SIMKIN