Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHENNAI289
2008-08-29 09:29:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

FILM STAR SHAKES UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS

Tags:  PGOV PREL IN 
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RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0289/01 2420929
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290929Z AUG 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1820
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3250
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000289 

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN

SUBJECT: FILM STAR SHAKES UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS

REF: CHENNAI 081

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000289

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN

SUBJECT: FILM STAR SHAKES UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS

REF: CHENNAI 081


1. (SBU) Summary: After years of speculation about his intentions,
Telugu film superstar Chiranjeevi finally formed a political party,
which he dubbed the "Praja Rajayam" (People's Party). Chiranjeevi,
who aspires to be the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, unveiled the
party's name at a mammoth rally on August 26 before more than
400,000 supporters. Since the announcement, a significant number of
politicians have defected from other parties, especially the Telugu
Desam Party, to join Chiranjeevi and talk has already begun about
potential political alliances for Praja Rajayam. Although it is too
early to tell precisely what impact Praja Rajayam will have on the
upcoming elections, it is clear that Chiranjeevi will shake things
up in the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is in the
political wilderness in Andhra Pradesh, stands the best chance of
benefiting from the new developments there. End summary.

Chiranjeevi finally decides to form party
--------------


2. (U) Chiranjeevi (actual name Konidella Sivasankara Varaprasad)
is a long-time superstar in the Andhra Pradesh-based Telugu language
film industry (reftel). Rumors that the film star would enter
politics have surfaced periodically for years. The speculation
intensified in 2007 when people close to Chiranjeevi, including his
brother, confirmed that the actor was considering forming a
political party. By early 2008 analysts considered his entry into
Andhra Pradesh politics a foregone conclusion. The actor and his
surrogates, for their part, kept the state in suspense, hinting at
various dates that came and went without an announcement. On August
17, the actor finally and unequivocally said he was forming his own
party, the name of which he planned to announce at an August 26
rally.


3. (SBU) Chiranjeevi unveiled the name of his new party: "Praja
Rajayam" (Telugu for "People's Party") at a huge rally in Tirupati,
a famous temple town in southern Andhra Pradesh. A journalist that
went to the event told post that he estimated that at least 400,000
people attended the rally. Media reports noted that there were 18
special trains and more than 1,500 buses from locations throughout
the state to help transport Chiranjeevi supporters to Tirupati. The
journalist contact initially cautioned against reading too much into

the crowd size, saying that "in Andhra Pradesh huge crowds at
political rallies are common." He added that "about half" of the
attendees were "a mobilized crowd," meaning that Chiranjeevi's party
had gathered supporters from around the state and made arrangements
to get them to the site. But, after some discussion, he
acknowledged that the rally was "an impressive start" for Praja
Rajayam.

Defections shows Chiranjeevi's appeal
--------------


4. (SBU) The days between the August 17 announcement and the August
26 rally saw a number of politicians leave other parties to join
Praja Rajayam. The defectors came from a wide range of parties,
including the ruling Congress party, opposition Telugu Desam Party
(TDP),the Communist Party of India, and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The highest profile defector was Hariram Jogaiah, a sitting
Congress party Member of Parliament. Jogaiah's resignation did not
come as a surprise as he had previously committed to doing so in the
event that Chiranjeevi -- who hails from the same Kapu caste as
Jogaiah -- entered politics. Media reports, however, noted that the
TDP suffered the largest number of defections. Our journalist
contact noted that many of the defectors are out of office right
now. As such, he said, they have less to risk by joining a new
party.

Alliance guessing game commences
--------------


5. (SBU) Speculation about possible alliances began the moment
Chiranjeevi announced his plans. Newspapers ran stories linking
Chiranjeevi's proposed party to virtually every party in Andhra
Pradesh except Congress and the Telugu Desam. Chiranjeevi's phone
call to BJP leader LK Advani fueled speculation that he was planning
to join with the BJP, though both the BJP and Chiranjeevi denied
that the phone call was a first step towards an alliance. At the
August 26 rally, Chiranjeevi said that Praja Rajayam would be a
"secular" party, which some reporters took as an indication that he
would avoid pairing with the BJP. The media contact who had
attended the August 26 rally said that any talk of a BJP-Praja
Rajayam alliance was "speculation," but acknowledged that joining
with BJP would benefit Chiranjeevi by associating him with the BJP's
prime ministerial candidate. Several media outlets also guessed
that Chiranjeevi will join forces with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti
(TRS). Chiranjeevi suggested that he would support a separate
Telangana state in his August 26 speech, heightening the speculation
of a potential TRS-Praja Rajayam alliance.

CHENNAI 00000289 002 OF 002




6. (SBU) The size of the Tirupati rally and the instant speculation
about potential alliances demonstrate that Praja Rajayam has already
made an impact on Andhra Pradesh politics. But both the journalist
and another analyst cautioned against reading too much into things
at this point. The journalist said that although Chiranjeevi is a
very popular actor, "he is by no means" NT Rama Rao, the Telugu
actor who swept to power in Andhra Pradesh in 1982 after forming the
Telugu Desam Party. The other analyst was quite dismissive, saying
that "the overhyped entry into politics by a fading star" is
unlikely to dramatically change the face of the state's politics.
On the other hand, T. Devender Goud, who left the TDP and recently
formed his own party -- the Nava Telangana Praja Party -- to
advocate for Telangana statehood, told us that Chiranjeevi looks to
be "a force to be reckoned with."

Comment: Can Chiranjeevi turn his
big splash into political tidal wave?
--------------


7. (SBU) Comment: Chiranjeevi has set the lofty goal of becoming
Andhra Pradesh's next Chief Minister. With less than a year before
the state's elections, Chiranjeevi will need to generate a tidal
wave of support to overturn the existing Congress/TDP-dominated
order. Congress Chief Minister YSR Reddy and TDP leader Chandrababu
Naidu both have big political egos; it is virtually unimaginable
that either would sublimate his ambitions to join with Chiranjeevi.
As such, the actor will need to cobble together an alliance from the
motley political remnants, which includes the two pro-Telangana
parties, the left parties, BJP, and the fledgling Andhra Pradesh
branch of Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. It is far too early to
tell whether any combination of these parties could get Chiranjeevi
over the top of Congress and the TDP, but he has made a very
promising debut. Even the long time it took for Chiranjeevi to
decide, which some saw as a sign of the actor's indecisiveness, now
looks like a deft effort to whip up enthusiasm among his potential
supporters. Notwithstanding the cautionary notes some of our
contacts expressed about Chiranjeevi and Praja Rajayam, we think the
new party is likely to shake up Andhra Pradesh's political order.

Comment: An opportunity for the BJP? Or Mayawati?
--------------


8. (SBU) Comment continued: In terms of national politics, even
though Chiranjeevi said Praja Rajayam will be a "secular" party, BJP
strategists are probably happiest to see the new party in Andhra
Pradesh. The BJP's enthusiasm has nothing to do with ideology, but
rather process of elimination and pure political calculus. With
Chiranjeevi focused on the Chief Ministership, he is unlikely to
partner with Congress or TDP. Nonetheless, he needs to associate
his party with a national Prime Ministerial candidate to be viable
in the parliamentary elections. Partnering with BJP, which is
relatively weak force in Andhra Pradesh, could be a win-win
situation. Chiranjeevi would have Andhra Pradesh's BJP voters
supporting him for Chief Minister, and Praja Rajayam parliamentary
candidates would stand a better chance running as part of the
BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The NDA, in turn, could
potentially take away some seats in Andhra Pradesh from the
Congress. So for now the talk centers on a potential BJP/Praja
Rajayam alliance. But the elections are still months away and the
very same considerations that compel an alliance with BJP could be
equally advanced in favor of Praja Rajayam linking up with
Mayawati's BSP. End comment.

SIMKIN