Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHENNAI28
2008-01-25 10:47:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

SEPARATIST SENTIMENT PUTS ANDHRA PRADESH'S MAJOR PARTIES ON

Tags:  PGOV KDEM ECON PREL IN 
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TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PREL IN
SUBJECT: SEPARATIST SENTIMENT PUTS ANDHRA PRADESH'S MAJOR PARTIES ON
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UNCLAS CHENNAI 000028

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TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PREL IN
SUBJECT: SEPARATIST SENTIMENT PUTS ANDHRA PRADESH'S MAJOR PARTIES ON
DEFENSIVE



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Demands for separate statehood for Andhra
Pradesh's Telangana region have set the state's politics on edge
again. The historically underdeveloped region has long harbored
separatist demands, which in 2001 led to a split in the state's
major regional political player, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
After joining with the TDP spin-off in the 2004 election by
promising to consider separate statehood for Telangana, the ruling
Congress party is now mishandling the issue. At the same time, TDP
is facing dissension in the ranks on the Telangana question. Though
it is uncertain which group will ultimately benefit, the issue of
Telangana statehood will no doubt be an important factor in the 2009
state and national elections in Andhra Pradesh. END SUMMARY.

TELANGANA'S HISTORY OF DISAPPOINTMENT
--------------


2. (U) The Telangana region is composed of the ten northern
districts of Andhra Pradesh, including the capital Hyderabad.
Merged into the state of Andhra Pradesh in 1956, Telangana has long
harbored demands for separate statehood (with Hyderabad as its
capital). These demands, in large part based on the fact that the
region lags behind the rest of the state in terms of economic
development, have long been a major factor in Andhra Pradesh
politics. In the 1990s, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) promised
separate statehood to Telangana but was unable to deliver due to
opposition by the BJP's coalition partner Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
In 2001, angry that his party blocked separate statehood, K.
Chandrashekhar Rao quit the TDP to form the Telangana Rashtra
Samithi (TRS) with the aim of achieving separate statehood for the
region. The TRS joined the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) in the 2004 elections and in return the UPA's Common Minimum
Program committed the government to "consider the demand for
formation of a Telangana state at an appropriate time after due
consultations and consensus." But the TRS withdrew from the UPA in
2006 in frustration with the government's lack of progress towards
independent statehood for Telangana.

CONGRESS STUMBLES
--------------


3. (U) The leadership of Andhra Pradesh's ruling Congress party has

recently struggled with the Telangana issue. On January 9 Veerappa
Moily, General Secretary of the All India Congress Committee who
also bears responsibility for Andhra Pradesh, said that the central
government was "seriously considering" constituting a second States
Reorganization Committee ("SRC") to address the demand for a
separate Telangana. Congress leaders from the Telangana region, who
support separate statehood, were dismayed. They worry that
referral of the issue to a second SRC would be seen as dooming a
separate Telangana to death by committee, thus giving an edge to the
TRS.


4. (U) The turmoil in the Andhra Pradesh Congress went all the way
to the top. Chief Minister Y.S.R. Reddy, who hails from the Andhra
region and is believed to be unsympathetic to Telangana statehood,
has given mixed signals. Returning from a meeting with Congress
party leader Sonia Gandhi, Reddy reportedly instructed Congress
members to refrain from airing their opinions on Telangana and the
second SRC. Days later Reddy gave an interview in which he was
quoted as saying Congress could not take action on separate
statehood for Telangana in the absence of an absolute majority in
India's Parliament, thus implying that the issue would be held in
abeyance until after the 2009 elections. The Chief Minister's
comments upset pro-Telangana Congress leaders. G. Venkataswamy, a
senior Congress leader elected from Telangana, called on the people
of Telangana to agitate for separate statehood now that Reddy "had
exposed his true feelings" against statehood. Telangana Congress
leaders even warned industry against purchasing land around
Hyderabad, saying that a post-separation government would review
such transactions.

OPPOSITION TDP ALSO STRUGLES
--------------


4. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh's chief opposition party also is struggling
with Telangana. The TDP, led by former Chief Minister Chandrababu
Naidu, consistently has stood against a separate Telangana. But
while Congress was wracked with internal dissension, TDP also saw
cracks develop in its once firm position. On January 13 T. Devender
Goud, a former Andhra Pradesh Home Minister and Naidu confidant who
is from Telangana, publicly urged the party to reconsider its stance
against Telangana statehood. Goud reportedly said that the people
had rejected the TDP's call for a united Andhra Pradesh in the last
elections and added "it is time the party reviewed" its stance on
the matter. With the media focus shifting from the Congress
infighting to the TDP dissension, Naidu quickly moved to downplay
the matter. After a very public meeting with Goud, Naidu told the
press that "an appropriate action would be taken at the appropriate
time." Former Industries Minister Vidhyadhar Rao told us that the
TDP still stood for a "united Andhra." But Rao added that the TDP,

as a regional party, would have "no choice" if India's central
government chose separate statehood.

CONFUSION REIGNS
--------------


5. (SBU) Media contacts tell us that the reemergence of the
Telangana has both Congress and TDP on edge. Congress is caught
between the differing priorities of the national and state parties.
Our contacts say that YSR Reddy, from the coastal Andhra region of
the state, has achieved his "lifetime ambition" of being Chief
Minister and "does not want to go down in history" as the leader who
permitted the division of Andhra Pradesh. Reddy's position is
strong: he is the only Congress leader in the state with the
stature to take on TDP. The remaining state Congress leaders are
either octogenarians like Venkataswamy (who confronted Reddy on
Telangana) or youngsters, all of whom lack the profile to compete
with Naidu.


6. (SBU) The national Congress party may be more favorably disposed
towards granting separate statehood because they feel they could
pick up more seats in a grateful Telangana state than they would
lose in what would remain of Andhra Pradesh. Our media contacts
there say that with the state's elections in 2009 there is plenty of
time for Congress to work through the Telangana issue. Ultimately,
"it will depend on how desperate Sonia Gandhi is" to pick up more
seats in Parliament. A Congress Member of the Legislative Assembly
told us that if the party does not offer separate statehood, it will
at least "offer a package" of special incentives to Telangana before
the next election.


7. (SBU) TRS is, of course, quite pleased to have its cornerstone
issue squarely in the public's mind. But the party is opposed to
referring the issue to a second SRC for fear that a second SRC will
only result in further delays. TRS founder K. Chandrashekhar Rao
has threatened that his party members will resign from the state and
national legislatures en masse if there is no decision on separate
statehood by March 6. But our media contacts say with only five
Members of Parliament at the center and sixteen Members of the
Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly, TRS has no leverage. Naidu and
the TDP are the worst off since they are unequivocally opposed to
Telangana statehood. TDP's biggest priority is quelling the
concerns of its Telangana-based officials like Goud, who some have
suggested might split away from the TDP.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Andhra Pradesh sends the fifth largest number of
members to the Indian Parliament, with UPA partners and the TRS
currently controlling 36 of the Andhra Pradesh's 42 seats in the
lower house. The UPA will likely need to keep hold of a substantial
number of the Andhra Pradesh seats to remain in power in Delhi, a
tall order for a government that is an incumbent in both the state
and the center. It would be doubly difficult to remain competitive
if the Congress does not carefully manage the question of Telangana
statehood and the TRS, which will no doubt continue to try to exert
pressure. Recent intra-Congress squabbling about Telangana does not
bode well for the party's chances. Congress's saving grace is that
its main opposition in the state -- the TDP -- is even worse off on
Telangana. END COMMENT.


9. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

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