DMK COALITION SHRINKS, EXPECT EVEN CLOSER TIES TO CONGRESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000224

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: DMK COALITION SHRINKS, EXPECT EVEN CLOSER TIES TO CONGRESS

REF: CHENNAI 020


1. (SBU) Summary: On June 17 Tamil Nadu's ruling DMK party finally
broke its contentious alliance with the PMK, another Tamil
Nadu-based regional party. The allies had been feuding for more
than a year, but it appears that the DMK preemptively broke ties
when it heard that the PMK wanted to align with Tamil Nadu's
principal opposition party in hopes of ultimately hitching its
fortunes to the ascendant Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the
upcoming national elections. The Union Minister for Health and
Family Welfare Anbumani Ramadoss, a PMK member, will keep his
position for the time being, but the DMK may ask that he be stripped
of the ministry at a later date. The PMK/DMK split puts the DMK
even more firmly on Congress's side, as it is needs Congress to stay
in power in Tamil Nadu. The defection of the PMK, which is a small
but important electoral factor in Tamil Nadu, also hurts the ruling
United Progressive Alliance's prospects in the upcoming national
elections. End summary.

Long-running war of words finally comes to a head
--------------


2. (SBU) On June 17, the DMK announced that it was removing the PMK
from Tamil Nadu's ruling Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA). The
immediate cause for the dismissal was an audio recording of a PMK
official threatening the life of DMK officials, including the Union
Minister for IT and Telecommunications A. Raja. But relations
between the parties had been poor for over a year, with constant
sniping by PMK founder Dr. Ramadoss (father of the Union Health
Minister) about the DMK government's performance and its persistent
objections to DMK's pet projects such as airport expansion and
satellite city. Although the alliance held for four years, it has
been an uneasy one ever since 2006 when DMK leader Karunanidhi
became the Chief Minister with Ramadoss repeatedly expressing his
desire that the PMK would lead a coalition government in Tamil Nadu
in 2011.

Better to break-up than be broken-up with
--------------


3. (SBU) The DMK publicly explained the split as necessary to
defend the party's honor against the onslaught of criticism from its
coalition partner. Privately, however, DMK sources told post that
Karunanidhi took the extreme step because he got wind of PMK plans
to abandon the DMK. Our sources said that the PMK wants to latch
onto the rising fortunes of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the
next national election, and knows that the easiest way to do so is
to join with the DMK's principal opposition, the AIADMK, which
already has been making moves toward allying with the BJP (reftel).
Karunanidhi decided it would be better to get rid of the PMK on his
own terms, rather than let the PMK break with the DMK at a time
closer to the elections, which would do more damage to his party.
AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa did not immediately comment on the
PMK's decision, but journalist contacts told us that she will
eventually welcome the PMK into the fold after keeping them waiting
so she can do so on her terms.

PMK Health Minister keeps his job (for now)
--------------


4. (SBU) The split between the parties raised questions about the
future of Union Minister for Health and Family Welfare Anbumani
Ramadoss, who is the son of the PMK's founder. Karunanidhi quickly
quelled speculation that he would demand that the UPA remove
Ramadoss as Health Minister. Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi, a
DMK Member of Parliament, confirmed to us that the DMK would not
seek Ramadoss's removal but added that it would be very difficult
for the DMK and PMK to co-exist as part of the UPA in the next
election. Despite Karunanidhi and Kanimozhi's comments to the
contrary, journalists told post that Karunanidhi is only waiting a
little while before having Ramadoss sacked in order to avoid
appearing vindictive.

Small party, potentially big impact
--------------


5. (SBU) The DMK's decision to boot the PMK has significant
repercussions. The consensus view is that the 85 year-old
Karunanidhi, who is serving his fifth term as Chief Minister, will
do virtually anything in order to serve out his current term in
office. Without the PMK's 18 legislative assembly seats, the DMK
now depends on the Congress and its 34 legislators to hold onto
power in Tamil Nadu. As a result, the PMK/DMK divorce will draw the
DMK ever closer to Congress in New Delhi, ensuring that the Tamil
Nadu party will be one of Congress's most reliable UPA partners.


6. (SBU) The split also has potential downstream electoral
consequences. The PMK is a small caste-based party that has an
outsized electoral significance due to the fact that the caste it

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represents (the Vanniars, a "most backward" but non-Dalit caste) is
concentrated in the northern districts of Tamil Nadu. The large
numbers of Vanniars in these districts means that the PMK can
influence elections to about a third of Tamil Nadu's 39 seats in the
India's Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) and for 70 of the 234
seats in Tamil Nadu's state legislative assembly. In 2004 the DPA
partners -- the DMK, PMK, the Left parties, and the MDMK (which
broke away after the 2004 elections taking its 4 seats) -- swept all
39 of Tamil Nadu's Lok Sabha seats and played a key role in allowing
Congress to form the UPA government in New Delhi. Analysts credited
the DPA's 2004 success to the excellent "alliance arithmetic" of
which the PMK was an important part. The departure of the PMK,
which has an uncanny ability to end up on the winning side in Tamil
Nadu, could spell trouble for UPA efforts in the upcoming elections
to hold onto its Lok Sabha seats from the southern state.


Captain to the rescue?
--------------


7. (SBU) Vijayakanth, a popular Tamil film star nicknamed "Captain,"
formed his own political party, the DMDK, in 2005 as an alternative
to the dominant DMK and AIADMK parties. The DMDK has steadily
increased its share of the vote. Many analysts believe that the
DMDK now commands ten to fifteen percent of the statewide vote.
There has been considerable media speculation that Karunanidhi and
the DMK threw out the PMK to make room for Vijayakanth and the MDMK
in the alliance. But Vijayakanth's brother-in-law (who is a DMDK
official) told post the DMDK is not interested in joining hands with
the DMK.

Comment: DMK's troubles in Tamil Nadu help BJP nationally
--------------


8. (SBU) Comment: The BJP is surely happy to see the DMK-led DPA
coming apart as the 39 Lok Sabha seats that the coalition won in
Tamil Nadu helped catapult the Congress-led UPA to power in New
Delhi in 2004. The DPA's 2004 sweep was not unusual: in Tamil Nadu
elections the winner tends to take most, if not all of the seats in
play. With the DMK and its remaining Tamil Nadu allies (including
Congress) in a defensive crouch with the elections looming, there is
ample space for the BJP's potential allies, most notably the AIADMK
and PMK, to pick up a significant number of seats. The wild card is
Vijayakanth's DMDK, which could shore up the Congress/DMK combine if
they find a way to rope him in.


9. (SBU) Comment continued: In the short term, the PMK's ouster
pushes the DMK closer to the Congress. On matters like the
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative, we can expect that
the DMK will toe the Congress line, if for no other reason to
preserve itself in power in Tamil Nadu. End comment.


10. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

HOPPER