DMK WON'T BREAK WITH CONGRESS BUT WILL URGE SONIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000213

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018
TAGS: IN PGOV
SUBJECT: DMK WON'T BREAK WITH CONGRESS BUT WILL URGE SONIA
TO NAME A PM CANDIDATE

Classified By: Principal Officer David T. Hopper for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)


1. (C) Summary: Tamil Nadu's DMK party will not abandon
Congress in the upcoming national elections according to
one of the party's senior strategists and a confidante of
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi. The strategist
emphasized the need for the Congress party to project its
prime ministerial candidate in advance of the next national
elections, adding that if Congress dithers on projecting a
candidate Karunanidhi would pressure Congress President
Sonia Gandhi to make a decision. The strategist added that
Sonia Gandhi would be the best candidate from the DMK's
perspective, but that Karunanidhi would not advocate for a
particular person. Turning to the DMK, the strategist
expressed serious concerns over the impact of the
infighting in the Karunanidhi family on the party. End
summary.


2. (C) On June 9, DMK party insider Siva Prakasam
discussed Tamil Nadu's political terrain. Prakasam is a
retired businessman who has served as an unofficial
political strategist for the party for fifteen years. He
has never held elected office or a formal position in the
party. As a trusted confidant of Chief Minister M.
Karunanidhi, Praksam meets regularly with him to discuss
political developments. With Karunanidhi's circle of
friends small, Prakasam's talk provided a rare glimpse into
senior-level DMK political thinking.

DMK won't break with Congress for BJP
--------------


3. (C) Prakasam stated unequivocally that the DMK will not
abandon Congress and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
in the next elections for the Lok Sabha (India's Lower
House of Parliament). Prakasam said the relationship
between the DMK and Congress "remains strong" particularly
because of the personal warmth between Congress President
Sonia Gandhi and Karunanidhi. When we noted that
Karunanidhi had joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led
National Democratic Alliance in 1999, Prakasam explained
that the previous alliance with BJP was "because of
Vajpayee." He said there is no possibility of an alliance
with an LK Advani-led BJP because Advani is not acceptable
in Tamil Nadu. (Note: Although he did not specifically
address the subject, Prakasam spoke as though a pre-poll
seat sharing agreement, like the one the DMK, Congress and
several other smaller Tamil Nadu players made in 2004, is
in the cards for the upcoming elections. End note.)

AIADMK won't join BJP in a pre-poll alliance
--------------


4. (C) Although there are widespread rumors that the
opposition AIADMK will join with the BJP, Prakasam believes
that the AIADMK will not do so before the next Lok Sabha
elections. He pointed out that the AIADAMK would only gain
the roughly three per cent of Tamil Nadu voters who prefer
BJP at the expense of scaring off the state's eleven
percent minority population (Christian and Muslim).
Prakasam acknowledged that "there are many things in common
between" the BJP and AIADMK and expects they will continue
to inch towards each other without formally allying in
advance of the Lok Sabha elections. Then, after the
elections, the AIADMK will assess the situation and strike
a deal with the BJP if it will help the NDA put together a
majority.

Congress needs to project a Prime Minister candidate
--------------


5. (C) Prakasam said that the UPA cannot afford to go the
next elections without Congress projecting a prime
ministerial candidate in advance: "Congress will lose the
Lok Sabha elections if it goes to the polls without a
single candidate." He feels that that Congress lost to the
BJP in the recent elections in Karnataka in large part
because it failed to project a single candidate to be the
state's Chief Minister. Prakasam's comments echoed the
assessment we heard from a Congress party Member of the
Legislative Assembly in Andhra Pradesh: "you can't win
with four or five heads of the party; you need to pick
one." Prakasam added that if Congress is typically
indecisive, he expects that Karunanidhi would pressure
Congress President Sonia Gandhi to project a candidate.
Karunanidhi would act out of self-interest, he said,
because Congress "needs" to project a strong candidate in
advance if the DMK and its allies are to hold on to the
lion's share of Tamil Nadu's Lok Sabha seats they won in

2004.

CHENNAI 00000213 002 OF 002



DMK would prefer Sonia, but it's Congress's call
--------------


6. (C) Prakasam mentioned that Union Human Resources
Development Minister Arjun Singh had recently paid a call
on Karunanidhi in Chennai, suggesting that Singh had sought
Karunanidhi's support for his bid to be the candidate. He
emphasized that although the DMK leader would pressure
Congress to project a candidate, he would not advocate for
a particular individual. The DMK will not interfere in the
Congress party's internal political affairs, Prakasam
said. When we asked him to assess the potential Congress
candidates, he said that Sonia Gandhi would be the most
appealing in Tamil Nadu, Rahul is "not ready," and Pranab
Mukherjee might be okay in North India but he would not
help much in the South. Prakasam feels that Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh would be a bad candidate: "he is
essentially a bureaucrat and he will bear the brunt of
popular anger at the price rise."

Comment: Karunanidhi clan's infighting dogs DMK
--------------


7. (C) Comment: Most of Karunanidhi's close associates
have personal ambitions that shade their judgments about
the state of the party. Prakasam, however, does not: he
aspires to neither elected office nor a position in the
party hierarchy. As a retired successful businessman he
does not need patronage or a political job to support
himself so he gives some of the more honest inside
assessments of the state of the DMK. Prakasam acknowledged
that inflation and potential defections by the DMK's allies
pose a serious challenge to the DMK, and he deflected our
questions about the party's prospects in the upcoming
elections by saying "it's too early to tell."


8. (C) Comment continued: Interestingly, Prakasam
lingered for quite some time on the subject of the
infighting in the Karunanidhi clan. Prakasam told us "the
Chief Minister has no challengers within the party and can
withstand any opposition from other parties. But he has a
major problem within his family." Karunanidhi has two
wives and it is commonly known that he alternates spending
nights with them in their respective houses, which are
located a few miles apart in Chennai. Prakasam confirmed
the widely held rumors that Karunanidhi's two sons from his
first wife -- MK Stalin and MK Azhargiri -- are at odds.
Significantly, he said that Karunanidhi did not want to
bring his daughter Kanimozhi (who is the daughter of the
Chief Minister's second wife) into politics but was forced
to give her a seat in Parliament last year at the behest of
her mother who was jealous of the political power of the
sons born to the first wife. Tales of the Stalin-Azhagiri
rivalry are commonplace, but Prakasam's comment about
Karunanidhi's reluctance to introduce Kanimozhi into
politics adds another layer of complexity. The
octogenarian Karunanidhi seems to be having trouble
managing the competing demands and ambitions of his two
wives and three politician children. Along with
anti-incumbency and quarrels with its Tamil allies, how
successfully the elderly Karunanidhi navigates his
increasingly contentious family life will be important to
the DMK's efforts to hold onto the 34 of 38 Tamil Nadu Lok
Sabha seats that it and its allies now hold. End comment.
HOPPER