MODI FLIRTS WITH JAYA, SPECULATION OF BJP-AIADMK ALLIANCE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000020

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SUBJECT: MODI FLIRTS WITH JAYA, SPECULATION OF BJP-AIADMK ALLIANCE


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On January 15, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra
Modi visited Chennai. Modi's visit, cloaked under heavy security,
sparked several protests. His lunch with J Jayalalithaa, leader of
Tamil Nadu's opposition AIADMK, fueled speculation of an AIADMK-BJP
alliance in future elections. Speaking before a selected
modestly-sized audience celebrating the anniversary of a Tamil
magazine, Modi focused on economic development while still
maintaining his tough rhetoric on terrorism and communal issues.
Modi was dismissive about the U.S. government's denial of his visa.
Although Modi energized the BJP's small group of staunch supporters
in Tamil Nadu, the enthusiastic response of his audience is no clear
indicator of the mood of the Tamil Nadu electorate, which for the
most part is cool to Modi's aggressive Hindu nationalist message.
END SUMMARY.

LUNCH DATE WITH JAYALALITHAA: FLIRTING WITH THE AIADMK
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2. (U) Modi's first order of business was lunch with AIADMK leader
J Jayalalithaa. The lunch dominated the local press, with stories
lingering on the details of how long they spent together (two
hours),what was served (forty-five different South Indian dishes),
and what gifts they exchanged (he gave her a bouquet of flowers; she
gave him a yellow silk shawl). The meeting fueled further
speculation about the possible revival of the BJP-AIADMK alliance.
Former BJP Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, who accompanied Modi to the
meeting, spoke to the press about the possibility of an alliance.
"A right ambience has been created by the meeting. There are
commonalities between our parties on a whole range of issues," but
he reportedly added, "We do not want to rush into things now. An
alliance, if any, has to be discussed with the national party
leadership." Neither Modi nor Jayalalithaa commented publicly on
the issue.

PREACHING TO THE CHOIR IN TAMIL NADU
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3. (SBU) Invited to celebrate the anniversary of maverick publisher
Cho S. Ramaswamy's right-of-center Tamil magazine Thuglak, Modi
spoke at the modesty-sized Kamaraj Auditorium, which seats
approximately 2,500. A Consulate staff member was able to attend
only after contacting Ramaswamy's office because demand was so high
for the limited seating that people reportedly started lining up at
around 1:30 p.m. for the 6:30 p.m. event. Police contacts reported
that more than 1000 people were turned away and watched the
proceedings on a large outdoor screen.


4. (SBU) Ramaswamy set the tone for the evening by mocking Sonia
Gandhi's reference to Modi as a "merchant of death" by calling Modi
the "merchant of death ... to corruption, and to terrorism." With
the audience primed by Ramaswamy's fiery introduction, Modi took the
stage to thunderous applause. Modi focused first on development
saying that it could only be achieved "when it was converted into a
mass movement," citing Gandhi's efforts to engage all Indians in the
independence movement. While referencing Gandhi along with Sardar
Patel, another icon of India's independence movement, Modi notably
failed to mention ny of the BJP's national leadership by name.
Modi also did not run away from the harder-edged Hindu nationalist
sentiment with which he is associated. He told the assembled crowd
"if fighting terrorism is a crime, I am ready to pay the price for
it," and asked whether "speaking against terrorism is communal?"
Modi said the meaning of the term secularism had changed over time
and that "today it means hate Hindus."


5. (SBU) Modi and Ramaswamy also discussed the U.S. government's
decision to deny a visa to Modi. When an audience member asked
about the issue Ramaswamy said "the loss is not Modi's, but the
shame is of the U.S." He said the denial was the result of a
rampant media campaign against Modi in the wake of the events of

2002. Modi himself later referred to the vsa issue, saying "When
the U.S. denied me a visaI said I will create America in my state
and then they will come visit me."

SECURIT TIGHT A MODI'S MUSCULAR
POLITICS MAKES HIM A TARGET IN TAMIL NADU
--------------


6. (SBU) Modi visited Tamil Nadu's capital on January 15, the eve
of the four-day Tamil new year celebration known as Pongal. With
Modi's brand of muscular BJP politics seen as out of the amil Nadu
mainstream, security was exceptionallytight for the visit. A
senior officer in the poice intelligence service told us that due
to thenature of the threats against Modi in Tamil Nadu h receives
the same security coverage afforded thePrime Minister. (NOTE: BJP
President L K Advan was the target of a failed assassination
attempt in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu in 1998. END NOTE.) The police
blocked major thoroughfares in downtown Chennai in advance of Modi's
movements, severely restricted access to the areas where Modi
visited, and engaged in aggressive preemptive detentions to ensure
Modi's safety. Despite the preventive arrests and the fact that no
permits were granted for planned protests, approximately one
thousand people from a variety of interest groups -- Muslim,
Christian, and Dalits for example -- protested against Modi's visit.
The heavy security footprint also irked some average Chennaites:
newspapers reported prominently on traffic disruptions and we
overheard complaints at a local market about the inconveniences
caused by Modi's security precautions.

MODI NOT ESPECIALLY POPULAR IN TAMIL NADU
BUT ANOTHER SIGN OF A FUTURE BJP-AIADMK ALLIANCE
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7. (SBU) COMMENT: One national daily described Modi's visit to
Chennai as "a hit." The view from the South is a bit different.
That he was enthusiastically received by the audience at Kamaraj
Auditorium was to be expected: a self-selected group of readers of
Ramaswamy's right-of-center journal was bound to be made up of many
supporters of the charismatic BJP leader. But the size of the venue
speaks volumes about Modi's relative popularity in the south. While
he speaks before crowds of hundreds of thousands in Gujarat, he
spoke to just a few thousand in Chennai. (In comparison, Chief
Minister Karunanidhi drew more than 100,000 for the celebration
marking his fifty years as a legislator.) Modi can energize the
BJP's small group of hard-core supporters in Tamil Nadu (as he did
on this visit),but because he is seen as far out of the South
Indian political mainstream, Modi is probably a net political
liability for the Tamil Nadu BJP and its potential partners.


8. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: Nonetheless, Modi's meeting with
Jayalalithaa is another step in the continuing courtship between the
AIADMK and the BJP. Modi and Jayalalithaa are known to have a warm
personal relationship, which likely propelled the headstrong
opposition leader to host the lunch despite the potential political
problems of meeting the controversial BJP leader. It is not
surprising that the meeting did not result in a formal announcement
of the alliance. Jayalalithaa has made clear before that she will
not decide on alliance partners until much closer to the national
election. But our contacts said that by hosting the controversial
Modi for lunch Jayalalithaa "sent a clear signal" that "things are
moving in the direction" of an alliance. If the likelihood of a
BJP-AIADMK alliance is growing, the effect of such an alliance
remains unclear. A moderate Muslim leader told us that the AIADMK
would have "no chance" in Tamil Nadu if it joined up with BJP. A
media contact was more measured, saying that AIADMK and BJP alone
might not beat the DMK-Congress partnership. We agree that the
AIADMK-BJP pairing would probably run close to the DMK-Congress
alliance, leaving Tamil Nadu's growing number of second-tier
political parties -- the PMK AND DMDK in particular -- holding the
key to victory. END COMMENT.


9. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

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