Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHENNAI192
2008-05-28 11:03:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

CONGRESS REELING AFTER BIG BJP WIN IN KARNATAKA

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL ECON KIRF KDEM IN 
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000192 


SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON KIRF KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS REELING AFTER BIG BJP WIN IN KARNATAKA

REF: CHENNAI 119

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000192


SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON KIRF KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS REELING AFTER BIG BJP WIN IN KARNATAKA

REF: CHENNAI 119


1. (SBU) Summary: The May 25 announcement of the state assembly
election results in Karnataka gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
a major victory. The party took 110 of the 224 seats in the
assembly, leaving it three seats shy of an absolute majority. The
BJP quickly secured the support of five of the six independents
elected to the assembly, putting it in a position to form its
first-ever government in South India. Congress, which had high
expectations that Karnataka could stem the tide of state-level
victories by its adversary BJP, won 80 seats and saw a number of its
senior party leaders losing. BJP's strong showing in Karnataka
shows it is continuing to build momentum in advance of the next
year's national parliamentary elections and is a portent of bad
things to come for Congress. End Summary.



BJP on the verge for the first time in South India
--------------


2. (SBU) The May 25 announcement of the results of Karnataka's state
assembly elections gave 110 of the 224 available seats to the BJP
(up from 79 in 2004),80 to Congress (up from 65 in 2004),and 28 to
the Janata Dal (Secular) (down from 58 in 2004). The big gains were
met with jubilation by BJP leaders throughout India. Arun Jaitley,
who headed the BJP's Karnataka efforts, described the win "as a
dream story" and BJP president Rajnath Singh declaring that his
party is now the "front-runner" in India's next parliamentary
elections. The BJP's victory came on strong performances in
Bangalore and it its traditional stronghold in the state's northern
districts. The party got off to a good start in the three-stage
polling by securing a majority of seats in Bangalore during the
first stage of polling, and then surging in the central and northern
districts in the the second two stages. The one area where the
party failed to do well in was the southern part of the state (with
the exception of Bangalore).

Terror and inflation fuel BJP surge
--------------


3. According to media reports, the BJP played on voter resentment
over rising prices as well as the fear of increased terrorism. A

May 10 bomb blast in the northern city of Hubli underscored the
BJP's claim that Congress is soft on terror. Although the explosion
did not cause any injuries, the fact that it targeted a court which
is trying several terror suspects highlighted the issue in
Karnataka, only to receive further emphasis days later when the May
14 Jaipur bombings received wide national coverage. Explaining the
party's victory, a state-level BJP leader told post the party had
raised the "appropriate issues" that "resonated" in urban areas and
the state's northern strongholds.

BJP wins on caste calculations
--------------


4. (SBU) The BJP's decision to project B.S. Yeddyurappa, a member
of the Lingayat caste, as the party's Chief Ministerial candidate
worked in the its favor. Yeddyurappa was able to consolidate
Lingayat votes behind the party, while still drawing support from
other backward castes such as Kurubas and Idigas. As a result, the
BJP increased its vote share by 5.3 percent, up to 33.8 percent. A
media contact explained that while BJP consolidated the Lingayat
vote and drew in other backward castes, the remaining castes were
divided among the the various secular parties. The contact added
that the Muslim votes expected to go completely to the Congress
ended up dividing between Congress and the the JD(S).

Congress had no response to terror and inflation
--------------


5. (SBU) Despite losing ground to the BJP in assembly seats, the
Congress actually still won the largest vote share, with 34.6
percent of the vote to BJP's 33.8 percent. The party failed to
sweep the southern districts as it expected, instead sharing them
with the JD(S). It then underperformed in the more BJP-friendly
central and northern districts with a number of its senior party
leaders losing their seats.


CHENNAI 00000192 002 OF 003



6. (SBU) Despite the focus on Congress's failure to designate a
Chief Ministerial candidate as the cause for its troubles, B.K.
Chandrasekar, a senior Congress leader told post that the real
problem was the lack of a clear strategy to counter the BJP's
campaign on terror and inflation. Local Congress officials pointed
the blame at the national party leadership, which they said was
indecisive in the face of the BJP's disciplined campaign.
Chandrasekar added that a stint in opposition will do the party good
in the long run.

BSP and SP irrelevant
--------------


7. (SBU) Both of the caste based national parties -- the Samajwadi
Party (SP) and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) -- failed to win
a single seat. SP's state party chief, the former Chief Minister S.
Bangarappa, was routed by the BJP's chief ministerial candidate
Yedduriappa by one of the biggest margins of the election -- 45,000
votes. The Karnataka BSP, headed by a former state industries
minister P.G.R. Sindhia, saw the party's successful Uttar Pradesh
strategy fail to work in Karnataka. But Sindhia drew consolation
from the fact the party had increased its vote share from 1.7 to 2.7
percent. Sindhia told post "we gave a tough fight to the Congress"
which ended up helping the BJP in ten closely contested
constituencies.

Business wants stability;
Christians fear BJP government
--------------


8. (SBU) Business contacts told post their major hope is that the
new BJP-led government will stay in power for a reasonable amount of
time. They said that a succession of unstable coalition governments
has meant that much-needed infrastructure projects have fallen to
the wayside, with the the deteriorating infrastructure leading many
businesses to look toward neighboring Tamil Nadu as a more inviting
investment destination. An American business contact said he would
expect BJP to focus on Bangalore's infrastructure, but worries
whether they will remain in power long enough to get anything done.



9. (SBU) Christian groups in Karnataka are apprehensive about the
BJP's victory. A church leader noted that Christian votes went as a
block to the Congress and said he worries that they will be targeted
by the BJP as it looks to replicate the "Gujarat-type model" (i.e.,
consolidate the Hindu vote by targeting religious minorities) in
Karnataka.

Comment: BJP's "Gateway to the South"?
--------------


10. (SBU) Some analysts quickly began talking about Karnataka as
the BJP's "gateway" to the once impenetrable South India. While its
Karnataka win is impressive, the party still faces a tough road
ahead in the rest of South India. BJP's Karnataka success has been
a long time in coming: the fruit of almost twenty years of
concerted efforts resulting in consistently increasing shares of the
statewide vote. But the BJP has remained a marginal player in the
three other South Indian states. Despite the BJP-related Rashtriya
Swayamsevak Sangh's well-publicized street battles with the
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) in Kerala, the BJP has
never won a state assembly or parliamentary seat in the state. In
neighboring Tamil Nadu, the BJP's vote share is stuck between 5 and
7 percent in the face of the dominance of the two warring
Tamil-based Dravidian parties. As such, it is left to pin its hopes
on alliances with either the AIADMK or DMK. Andhra Pradesh is
likely the BJP's next best opportunity in the South after Karnataka,
but the BJP has seen declines in its electoral fortunes after its
promising early forays into the state. The party now finds itself
squeezed between the ruling Congress party and the powerful regional
Telugu Desam Party. Given the BJP's long road to the Chief
Ministership in Karnataka, one should not expect a major turnaround
in the other South Indian states anytime soon.

Comment: Congress snatches
defeat from the jaws of victory
--------------


11. (SBU) Nonetheless, BJP leaders have every reason to be

CHENNAI 00000192 003 OF 003


jubilant. This was a major victory in a state where nobody --
Congress leadership especially -- expected the BJP to win enough
seats to almost claim a majority on their own. Between the party's
historical strength in the state and the fact that its two rivals
had embarrassed themselves in last year's coalition debacle,
pre-election expectations were set high for Congress (reftel). As a
result, the party's efforts to downplay the result by pointing to
their still strong vote share and overall increase in seats rings
hollow. They needed to win and their failure to do so sends the
message that Congress somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of
victory in a bellwether election that sets the table for the timing
of national elections. There is consensus among political observers
that neither the Congress Party not the BJP will be in a position to
form a government in Delhi on its own after the national elections,
due by May 2009. They will have to rely on alliances with dozens of
smaller regional or special interest parties. To the extent the
Karnataka win provides the BJP with momentum and the aura of a
winner, it increases its appeal with this pool of potential
coalition partners. Conversely, the weakened Congress Party will
see its allies and potential allies begin to distance themselves
from the party as the national elections approach.

Comment: A deeper malaise in the Congress Party
--------------


12. (SBU) Though our interlocutors all point to the potency of the
twin issues of terrorism and inflation, something deeper lies at the
foundation of Congress's malaise. BJP's decision to designate B.S.
Yeddyurappa as its Chief Ministerial candidate demonstrates the
party's willingness to empower local leaders, a stark contrast to
the Congress which is afraid of local leaders developing independent
political power bases which may threaten the central leadership.
The party fosters multiple state leaders who keep each other in
check and end up always looking to the party high command in Delhi
for answers. Local Congress officials told us they blamed national
party officials for their indecision in dealing with the BJP's
attacks. In a nation as vast and diverse as India, Congress will
fall further behind both the BJP and the regional parties if its
candidates always find themselves turning to Delhi for answers.

Embassy Comment: Congress falls back on outdated formula


13. (SBU) As the pressure mounts on the Congress Party from a
succession of state assembly elections losses and relentless attack
from the opposition and its own allies, it has started to revert
back to the outdated and tired formulae that kept the party in power
for decades after independence -- hollow slogans about secularism,
promises of quotas and subsidies to every interest group, attacks on
"communalism" and brazen pandering to caste and community vote
banks. The party leadership fails to understand that the country
and the electorate have changed dramamtically since the days of
Indira Gandhi and such strategies no longer strike a chord with
Indians. Most of the inner circle surrounding the Congress Party
leadership in Delhi consists of people who have seldom won an
election. They know little about the needs and hopes and ambitions
of the modern Indian electorate, devise confused and muddled
election strategies, but walk away unscathed from successive losses
with their influence in the inner circle intact.


14. (SBU) As the Congress Party stumbles from one setback to
another, it has become more risk-averse. It has not undertaken any
significant domestic or foreign policy initiative in the last year,
except for an irresponsible super-populist budget which provided an
unprecedented $17 billion debt write off for farmers but failed to
mobilize any lasting popular support. It is unlikely that the
Congress Party will unveil any bold initiative in the run up to
national elections, due by May 2009. What the party needs to do is
reinvent itself as a modern party catering to the desires and
aspirations of the modern day Indian. Its record during its four
years in power inspires little hope that it will be able to be able
to do so. End comment.

KAPLAN