KARNATAKA'S ELECTIONS: CONGRESS SHOULD WIN, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CHENNAI 000168

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2023
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: KARNATAKA'S ELECTIONS: CONGRESS SHOULD WIN, BUT
THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL

REF: A. CHENNAI 167

B. CHENNAI 119

Classified By: Consul General David T. Hopper for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (SBU) Summary: All Indian political eyes are on the South
Indian state of Karnataka as it heads toward legislative
assembly elections that begin on May 10 (ref A). A key
pre-election poll published by one of South India's leading
dailies shows that the Congress Party looks set to win a
significant plurality of the vote but fall short of a
majority. Other polls -- all of unknown quality -- show a
tighter contest, but generally place Congress on top. The
election looks to be largely a two-way contest between the
Congress Party and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),with the
Janata Dal (Secular) Party (JDS) reduced to a relatively
minor role.


2. (C) Congress should benefit from the electorate's negative
views of the previous BJP-JDS coalition and from the BJP's
inability to attract Muslim or Christian voters, who may
comprise some 15 percent of the state's electorate. This
raises expectations for Congress, however, and if it fails to
win, the loss will be all the more painful. National BJP
leader L.K. Advani is optimistic about his party's prospects
but feels that getting an absolutely majority may be
difficult. Regardless who comes out on top, however, it will
be difficult to win a majority, forcing the main parties to
find a coalition partner. This might result in yet another
weak and divided government for a state in desperate need of
competent, forward-thinking governance. End Comment.

The poll that's got everybody talking
--------------


3. (U) The Deccan Herald, one of South India's leading
dailies, published on April 30 the results of a poll it
conducted in conjunction with the CNN-IBN television network
and the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS),
a Delhi-based social science research center. All of the
people we spoke with during our April 30 - May 2 visit to
southern Karnataka were well aware of the survey, which is
likely to be the most reputable done in the state. The
poll's headline-grabber was its conclusion that the Congress
Party was set to receive 39 percent of the vote, well ahead
of the BJP's 28 percent, with 20 percent of the respondents
opting for the JDS. Only two percent of the respondents
selected the Bhujan Sumaj Party (BSP). More than a third of
respondents, mainly those who selected either the BJP or JDS,
said that they may change their minds before polling day.
(The survey asked 5124 voters from across the state to use a
dummy ballot to indicate their voting preferences.)


4. (U) The survey also indicates that Congress is the only
party that will be competitive in all of Karnataka's six
regions (Bangalore, Southern Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka,
Mumbai Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, and Central
Karnataka). Only in Central Karnataka and Bangalore will
there be a real three-way race, suggests the poll. The
Congress Party will face competition from only the BJP in
Coastal and Mumbai Karnataka, while its only challenger in
Southern and Hyderabad Karnataka will be the JDS.


5. (U) The survey further suggests that the deciding factor
in favor of the Congress Party seems to be the movement of
the "lower social bloc" (backward castes, Dalits, Adivasis
(scheduled tribes),and Muslims) decidedly in favor of
Congress; a clear majority of this group -- 54 percent --
favored Congress, with the BJP and JDS garnering only 18
percent each. The poll also showed that the "upper social
bloc" (upper castes, land-owning castes, and Karnataka's
dominant Vokkaliga and Lingayat castes) is evenly split among
the three main parties.

Why Congress?
--------------


6. (SBU) Our interlocutors in Karnataka, mainly senior
journalists, academics, and retired senior bureaucrats,
expressed surprise at the scale of the Congress Party's lead
suggested by the Deccan Herald's survey, but agreed that it
generally confirmed their expectation that the race is
Congress's to lose. They told us that the electorate
remembers the former coalition partners (BJP and JDS) more

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for their squabbling than for their accomplishments in
office, thus giving the Congress an anti-incumbency boost.


7. (SBU) The South India editor of The Economic Times told us
that he detected a general consensus in the electorate that
only the Congress Party might be able to get a majority and
thus deliver a stable government. He admitted that he had
not yet decided for whom he would vote, and that he did not
really care who won, as he could not discern any real
difference between the policies of Congress or the BJP (this
point, too, was repeated by many of our interlocutors).
Important for him, he said, was that one of the parties win a
majority so that it could establish a stable government. He
also said that many others in the electorate probably feel
the same, so the perception that one of the parties might be
able to get a majority might lead to increased support as
voters sought to back a solid winner.

Why not the BJP?
--------------


8. (SBU) We heard repeatedly that the BJP is failing
generally to create much excitement in Karnataka. Several of
the journalists we spoke with said that nearly all of the
BJP's candidates are from the Lingayat caste (reftel),and
that the BJP is increasingly becoming seen in the state as
the party of elites and Lingayats. The editor of the
Bangalore edition of the Times of India said that one of the
BJP's national stars, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi,
held a rally in the home district of the Karnataka BJP's
president that attracted a crowd of only 5000 supporters --
an abysmally low turnout.


9. (C) In a May 1 meeting with the Embassy's Acting Political
Section Chief, former Deputy Prime Minister and current
Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani said his party cadres
are very optimistic that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP)
will fare well in the upcoming Karnataka assembly elections.
He was personally skeptical, however, about whether the party
would be able to win the absolute majority it needs to form
the government. He unequivocally ruled out a coalition with
the JDS, saying it is impossible for the BJP to have any
alliance with Deve Gowda's party given its recent history of
promises broken and betrayals. (State-level BJP officials in
Karnataka have said publicly and in private to us that the
BJP will not form a coalition with any party, emphasizing
that it will win a majority or sit in opposition. This
decision, however, will ultimately come from the party's
national leadership.)


10. (C) Advani appeared resigned to the BJP sitting in the
opposition in Karnataka but held out some small measure of
hope that what his cadres are telling him is not merely
wishful thinking. Reflecting the intense attention the BJP
is giving to this election, Advani said that he will be
completely preoccupied with the Karnataka elections through
May, including a week or so after election results are
announced on May 25 for the dust to settle and a new
government to be formed.


11. (U) A top state BJP official told reporters on May 5 that
the party conducted an "internal survey" indicating that the
BJP would claim 119 to 129 of the 224 seats available, with
Congress winning only 60. When pressed to identify the
agency that had conducted poll, the official refused to name
it, noting only that it was "a reputed agency." (Comment:
Some Indians tend to use the word "reputed" when an American
would say "reputable;" we presume this is one of those
occasions. End comment.)

The known unknown: the BSP
--------------


12. (SBU) None of our interlocutors on this trip felt
confident predicting how the BSP would fare in the election,
but all regarded its chances as the great mystery of the
campaign. A social science professor from the prestigious
Indian Institute of Science (IIS) in Bangalore told us that
the Deccan Herald's poll "almost certainly" understates
support for the BSP, which he said is fielding very strong
candidates in several constituencies.


13. (SBU) P.G. Sindhia, the BSP's national General Secretary,
is from Karnataka and is a former member of the JDS. He told

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us more than a month ago (ref B) that he does not expect to
get more than 15 seats in this election, but emphasized that
the increase in the number of constituencies reserved for
backward castes, Dalits, and Adivasis (ref A) bodes well for
his party's future in the state.

Beware the opinion polls
--------------


14. (SBU) Several of our interlocutors told us that the size
of the Deccan Herald's survey sample (5124 respondents) was
statistically valid -- indeed, significantly larger than such
polls in other countries -- but probably too small to
accurately reflect opinion in Karnataka. The IIS professor
said that the survey's methodology might be accurate if the
state selected its legislative assembly members by statewide
proportional representation. The fact that it has a
first-past-the-post electoral system in each constituency,
however, means that an accurate survey would need to get a
statistically valid sample in each of the constituencies to
get an accurate state-wide assessment.


15. (SBU) The professor emphasized that in large swathes of
the state, the residents of each village will gather and
decide en masse for which candidate they will vote -- and
then all of the residents of that village will vote for the
same candidate. These villagers tend to make their voting
decision based on their assessment of which candidate will
win their constituency, and they will support that candidate.
They believe, he said, that this increases their village's
importance to the winning candidate, and will therefore
result in increased governmental largesse when "their"
candidate wins.

The race to watch
--------------


16. (U) Perhaps the most interesting constituency to watch
will be the town of Shikaripura, which lies in the central
Karnataka district of Shimoga, some 330 km west-northwest of
Bangalore. Nine candidates are officially vying for the
seat, but two stand out. One is the BJP's candidate for
Chief Minister(CM),B.S. Yediyurappa, who briefly held the
state's top job in November 2007, becoming the first CM from
his party to hold the top position in a South Indian state.
(The BJP is the only party that has declared an official CM
candidate.)


17. (SBU) The other main candidate in the race is S.
Bangarappa, a former CM himself, who belongs to the Samajwadi
Party (SP). Bangarappa is a member of the Idiga caste, one
of the "backward castes" that dominates the Shimoga district
(Yediyurappa is a Lingayat). Sensing an opportunity to
embarrass the BJP, both the JDS and Congress Party have
essentially pulled their candidates in the constituency out
of the race (technically, the Congress candidate waited too
long, so his name is still on the ballot, but he has stopped
campaigning.) A former editor of the Deccan Herald (whose
family still owns the paper) told us that Bangarappa is an
extremely strong candidate, and that it would be a major blow
to the collective ego of the BJP if the party's CM candidate
failed to win his seat.

Comment
--------------


18. (SBU) Congress ought to be the clear favorite in this
race, but neither the Deccan Herald poll nor the mess
generated by the previous coalition should lead anyone to
conclude that the party has an easy route to victory. Many
of the Muslims and Christians who supported the JDS last time
may indeed look for another party to support, but there is no
guarantee that they will opt for Congress this time. Nobody
is yet sure how much support the BSP will attract in the
state, but it may prove attractive to the minority and
lower-caste voters that the Congress Party is hoping to lure
to its side. This could prove fatal to Congress's chances.
Given the party's inflated expectations, if it manages to
snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, such a blow would be
painful indeed.


19. (SBU) If the Congress Party does not fare as well as
expected, it will be particularly dispiriting for the party
faithful, coming as it will at a time when the party is weak

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after devastating defeats in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh,
the political difficulties cause by rising inflation, and the
continual bullying by its communist colleagues. The party
will become even more risk-averse and cautious going forward.
It will begin to behave and be treated as a lame duck a year
ahead of the scheduled national elections.


20. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.
HOPPER