Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHENNAI167
2008-05-07 08:41:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

AN ELECTION PRIMER FOR INDIA'S NEXT BIG VOTE: SHOWTIME IN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN 
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FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
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INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3106
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000167 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: AN ELECTION PRIMER FOR INDIA'S NEXT BIG VOTE: SHOWTIME IN
KARNATAKA

REF: Chennai 119 and previous

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000167

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: AN ELECTION PRIMER FOR INDIA'S NEXT BIG VOTE: SHOWTIME IN
KARNATAKA

REF: Chennai 119 and previous


1. Summary: Voters in the South Indian state of Karnataka head to
the polls in May to select 224 members of the state's legislative
assembly. More than 10,000 candidates are vying for these seats in
elections that will take place in three stages, from May 10 to May

22. The main contest will take place between India's two largest
national parties, the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP). The local Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) party is likely to place
third, and other other parties, such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and
Bhujan Samaj Party (BSP),may play an important role, as well. All
eyes are on Karnataka for this election, as India's chattering
classes ponder the 2009 national elections and whether the Congress
Party can stem the tide of painful state-level electoral losses it
has suffered in recent months.


2. This is the first of a series of cables on these elections, and
seeks to explain the basic framework of the polls. Subsequent
cables will offer more detailed analysis and a touch of local color.
End Summary.

An election in three acts
--------------


3. For the first time in Karnataka, elections for the state's
legislative assembly will take place in three stages (balloting in
previous years occurred in only two stages). The first stage, which
will take place on May 10, will consist of the 89 constituencies in
the state's southern districts. The second stage will cover 66
constituencies in the state's central and coastal districts on May

16. Voters in the 69 constituencies in northern Karnataka cast
their ballots on May 22.


4. Election authorities will deploy 39,758 electronic voting
machines for the polls, which will allow almost immediate tabulation
of results. As is the normal electoral procedure in India, however,
the results will be tabulated and announced simultaneously for all
three phases only on May 25.

A cast of 10,000
--------------


5. More than 10,000 candidates are vying for the legislative
assembly's 224 seats. As elsewhere in India, Karnataka's is a
first-past-the-post system, with voters casting their ballots for
candidates representing specific constituencies. A party needs to
win 113 seats to claim a majority that will allow it to form a

government on its own. In typical parliamentary fashion, if no
party wins an outright majority of seats, parties may attempt to
cobble together a coalition that can command a majority.

The real players
--------------


6. Although candidates from a dizzying array of parties will contest
the elections, most observers expect that either the Congress Party
or the BJP will claim the largest number of seats, with the JDS -- a
local party headed by former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda --
coming in a distant third. Relative newcomers to Karnataka such as
the SP or Mayawati's BSP are unlikely to win more seats than the
other three parties, but may demonstrate significant strength in
particular areas to tip the results in some constituencies or to
play an important role as king-maker if neither the Congress nor the
BJP can muster a majority, which seems likely.

Knowing the audience
--------------


7. Politics in Karnataka has long been dominated by members of two
castes, the Lingayyats and the Vokkaligas, who comprise nearly half
of the electorate by some estimates. Vokkaligas, traditionally
farmers, dominate in southern Karnataka and have tended to divide
their loyalties between the Congress Party the JDS. The Lingayyats,
traditionally traders, are more numerous in northern Karnataka, and
tend to support the BJP.


8. Members of the "backward castes," Dalits, and Adivasis (or
"scheduled tribes") form close to 30 percent of the state's
population, and are spread across constituencies. They tend to
split their votes among Congress, SP, and BSP. Muslims and
Christians comprise approximately 15 percent of the electorate, and

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tend to support Congress.

Special actors
--------------


9. Karnataka's electoral map has, quite literally, been redrawn
since the most recent election in 2004. The redistricting process
(known as "delimitation" in the local political vernacular) altered
52 constituencies, but did not change the total number of seats in
the legislative assembly. The number of seats in the urban areas of
the state increased substantially, with the greater Bangalore area
now deciding 28 seats, compared with 16 in the previous election.


10. The number of constituencies reserved for Dalit candidates
increased from 33 to 36, while seats reserved for Adivasis jumped
from 2 to 15. The 51 seats reserved for candidates from these
groups comprise 23 percent of the total, potentially giving these
socially disadvantaged groups a decisive role in forthcoming
elections.

The prequel
--------------


11. In the April 2004 election, the BJP won the plurality of seats,
with 79 -- an electoral first for the party in South India. The
Congress Party was "completely mauled" in the words of one political
scientist, winning only 64 seats in a state where it had tended to
control more than 100. Perhaps the big winner, though, was the JDS,
which pulled in 59 seats and joined Congress in the state's
governing coalition. The JDS then split and a faction formed a new
government with the BJP, with Deve Gowda's son H.D. Kumaraswamy as
Chief Minister. The JDS-BJP government is remembered mainly for its
squabbling, which eventually led to its collapse in October 2007
when the JDS refused to hand over the post of Chief Minister to the
BJP halfway through its term, as called for in the coalition
agreement. The parties managed to reform their coalition in
November, with the BJP's B.S. Yediyurappa as Chief Minister --
making him the first BJP Chief Minister in South India -- but that
arrangement fell apart within a week, leading to this month's
elections.


Comment: A tragedy or triumph for Congress?
--------------


12. This is a very important election for the Congress Party. It
has been stung in a series of state elections across the country in
recent months, and it desperately needs a strong showing to garner
some sort of momentum in the run-up to next year's national
elections. With the embarrassing mess its two main rivals made of
Karnataka's government and its historical strength in the state,
many are expecting Congress to do well. If it fails to meet these
buoyant expectations, however, the party could be in serious
trouble.


13. The BJP hopes to carry momentum from its resounding victories in
Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh last December. It was anxious that the
Karnataka polls be held earlier rather than later in expectation
that it will gain from a sympathy factor resulting from what many
see as the JDS betrayal of its coalition agreement. The Karnataka
election is also seen as a bellwether by many analysts because it is
the last big state to go the polls before the Congress Party and the
UPA decide on the timing of the national elections. If the Congress
Party fares poorly, its UPA allies will become even more skittish
and, while unlikely to break with the UPA coalition, will more
aggressively begin to distance themselves from a stumbling Congress
Party. End Comment.


14. This cable was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

HOPPER