Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CHENNAI15
2008-01-14 11:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

MAYAWATI ON THE MOVE IN SOUTH INDIA

Tags:  PGOV IN 
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DE RUEHCG #0015/01 0141116
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R 141116Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1417
INFO RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS CHENNAI 000015 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: MAYAWATI ON THE MOVE IN SOUTH INDIA

REFS: A) 07 New Delhi 5305 B) 07 Mumbai 699

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000015

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: MAYAWATI ON THE MOVE IN SOUTH INDIA

REFS: A) 07 New Delhi 5305 B) 07 Mumbai 699


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP),led by Uttar
Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati, is moving into South India. BSP
previously had little presence in the south, but has recently
increased its visibility in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka with
Mayawati holding rallies in both states' capitals. Though the
results of the rallies are mixed, they reinforce the message that
Mayawati's BSP has a national strategy that includes south India.
END SUMMARY.

MAYAWATI MAKES A SPLASH IN KARNATAKA
--------------


2. (U) On December 23 Mayawati headlined a large public rally in
Bangalore's Palace Grounds. According to our contacts, the rally
drew more than 100,000 participants. In the days leading up to the
rally the BSP's blue signs, virtually all of them featuring Mayawati
prominently, were ubiquitous around the city. A consulate officer
driving through the area observed the BSP placards as far as a
hundred kilometers from Bangalore. The BSP banners outnumbered
those of Karnataka's major parties combined -- BJP, Janata Dal
(Secular),and Congress -- by at least two to one. At the December
23 rally, Mayawati introduced PGR Sindhia, a veteran political
operative and former Karnataka state minister from the Janata Dal
party, as a national general secretary of the BSP. (Sindhia, long a
Janata Dal dissident, had told us several months ago that he --
wanting to make a move to national-level politics -- was
contemplating switching parties but that he was not sure which he
would choose.)


3. (SBU) Previously, BSP was practically nonexistent in Karnataka.
The party did not win a single seat in the legislature despite
having contested a substantial number of seats in the 2004
elections. As a result, the Bangalore rally, especially the amount
of fanfare BSP was able to muster, came as a bit of a surprise in
the relative political calm since the dissolution of the state's
legislature in October. Sindhia, for his part, downplayed
expectations in the short run. He told us that party is focusing on
developing at the grassroots. He said the BSP's current thinking on
the upcoming state elections is to contest in a few constituencies
reserved for dalits and other disadvantaged groups while extending
support to Congress in the other constituencies. (EMBASSY COMMENT:
But this may be just Sindhia talking as Mayawati's increasingly

confrontational approach to the Congress Party leadership in Delhi
suggests she will not be inclined to assist the Congress. As in
Gujarat and Himachal, she will likely go it alone in Karnataka. END
COMMENT.) But Sindhia felt the party would play a crucial role in
later Karnataka elections after it had built its grassroots support.
A media analyst told post, however, that he did not believe the BSP
will be able to follow its formula of winning by consolidating the
dalit vote because Karnataka's dalit community is fractured.

AND THEN HEADS TO ANDHRA PRADESH
--------------


4. (SBU) Two weeks later Mayawati visited the capital of Andhra
Pradesh -- Hyderabad. Turnout was disappointing for her January 6
rally according to our contacts, with only 50,000 attendees coming
out. Mayawati caused a stir when she scoffed at the idea of film
stars in politics, reportedly saying "film stars can't serve
society. They can only dance and sing." (NOTE: In Andhra Pradesh,
as well as neighboring Tamil Nadu, there is a robust tradition of
film stars moving into politics. Her comments were seen as a veiled
shot at recen hints that the popular Andhra Pradesh-based Telug
film star Chiranjeevi would soon enter politics. END NOTE.) The
rally also saw breakaway factio of the state's small Telangana
Rashtra Samithi TRS) party led by Member of Parliament A. Narendra
merge with the BSP. The merger, however, came wth little fanfare
and Mayawati relegated Narendrato a far corner of the stage.


5. (SBU) At the anuary 6 rally Mayawati said her party would
crete a separate Telangana state if it came to power t the center.
Her merger with Narendra's faction of the TRS, a party created with
the goal of establishing a separate Telangana state, amplifies her
play to pro-Telangana sentiment. Narendra, however, is a
discredited figure who was forced to breakaway from the main TRS
when the party suspended him for his alleged involvement with a
human-trafficking ring. Moreover, Mayawati's comments disparaging
film stars moving into politics were seen as a misstep that could
alienate Chiranjeevi, who is considering an entry into Andhra
Pradesh politics and who will likely command a strong following
among the dalits who Mayawati's BSP will also try to mobilize.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Since her resounding 2007 win in Uttar Pradesh,
Mayawati has made a determined effort to build her presence and
expand her dalit-brahmin coalition outside of her home state, thus
laying the foundation of a national party. She has failed to make
headway in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (reftels). Nonetheless, her
efforts continue, now in South India. While she appeared to make a
splash in Karnataka with the large crowds and ubiquitous placards,
her Andhra Pradesh foray was a bit of a mixed bag. Karnataka, with
its political scene in disarray since last fall's BJP/JD(S)
meltdown, presents an easier target for the BSP. But even there
Mayawati's new point man Sindhia is playing down expectations.
Also, it is not clear whether the large crowds and fanfare translate
into a sustainable political presence. Using monetary and other
inducements to gather large crowds at rallies has become standard
operating procedure in Indian politicking. But large rallies often
have little relationship to actual political strength. Regardless
of the ultimate outcome of her southern swing, her recent trips to
Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh show that she continues to harbor
national ambitions. END COMMENT.


7. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

HOPPER