TIBET: TOURISM, THE TRAIN, AND MIGRANT LABOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CHENGDU 000043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/7/2033
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI CH
SUBJECT: TIBET: TOURISM, THE TRAIN, AND MIGRANT LABOR

REF: REFS: (A) 07 CHENGDU 298 (B) 07 CHENGDU 297 (C) 07 CHENGDU 083

CHENGDU 00000043 001.2 OF 004


CLASSIFIED BY: James Boughner, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General, Chengdu, China.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1. (C) Summary: Local officials in charge of tourism,
railroad, and labor issues in the Tibetan Autonomous Region
(TAR) claim to be "unsure" how many people from inland China may
be resettling in traditional Tibetan areas. In 2007, over four
million tourists (mostly from inland China) visited the TAR, a
region that officially has a population of less than three
million people. Tourism facilities are being expanded rapidly
both within and outside Lhasa to meet an expected continued rise
in demand as massive investments in the TAR's transportation
infrastructure -- new airports, roads, railroad extension --
make formerly remote areas more accessible. At least six
million people are expected to visit the TAR in 2010.
Approximately 43 percent of visitors to the TAR travel via the
new train and there does not appear to be any system in place
(at least officially) to account for or differentiate between
tourist and migrant laborer passengers. A summer 2007 shortage
in train seats was addressed by adding more trains that were
easily accommodated by Lhasa's massive three-platform,
seven-track station. Commenting on the city's changing ethnic
composition, a longtime Nepali Consulate official said Lhasa's
current population is probably 800,000 people (far greater than
other estimates we have heard that range between 300,000 to
500,000) and 82 percent of all businesses in Lhasa are owned by
Han. As most (although not all) newcomers are ethnic Han, Lhasa
may already have become a majority Han city. In order to
promote trade, Nepal has requested that China extend the
railroad to its border. End Summary.



Taking the Train

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2. (C) During a joint visit by the Consulate and Embassy from
February 25-29 to the Tibetan Plateau (see septels),CG, Embassy
Poloff, Congenoff, and Tibetan LES road the new train from
Xining in Qinghai Province to Lhasa, a trip that took
approximately 24 hours. Although the TAR Foreign Affairs Office
warned us it might be difficult to get tickets given the likely
high demand by people returning to Lhasa following the end of
Chinese New Year, we did not find the train to be overly packed.
According to one attendant, the train we were on carried
approximately 600 passengers, far fewer than the over 2,000
passengers it sometimes accommodates (with additional cars)
during the peak summer period. Most of the people we ran into
on the train appeared to be migrant laborers from inland China
returning to work on construction projects in the TAR. The only
military presence we noted was a soft-sleeper compartment filled
with six uniformed Peoples Armed Police (PAP) non-commissioned
officers. An FAO handler met us in Lhasa and accompanied us to
meetings with tourism, railroad, and labor officials.



Tourism: A Pillar of Tibet's Civilian Economy

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3. (SBU) According to Wang Songping, the Deputy Director of the
TAR Tourism Bureau, visits by 4.02 million tourists during 2007
resulted in earnings of 4.85 billion RMB (USD 700 million),or
one-seventh of Tibet's civilian GDP. Rural people also
benefited from tourism, with 8,714 rural households and 34,000
rural people earning money from tourism. A Tourism Bureau study
found that 43 percent of tourists to the TAR arrive by train.
Increased tourist traffic through the new airport in Linzhi
(eastern TAR) and then to Lhasa will reduce high altitude
adjustment problems since tourists can arrive at
2,900-meter-high Linzhi (Nyintri in Tibetan) and gradually climb
to Lhasa (alt: 3,700 meters). The tourist bureau has found that
less than 10 percent of tourists arriving at Linzhi and then
going to Lhasa have altitude adjustment problems, while nearly
all who fly directly to Lhasa suffer some adjustment
difficulties.




4. (SBU) Wang acknowledged that overcrowding in Lhasa during
the peak May - September tourist season is a particular concern.
Due to the limited capacity of Lhasa to absorb tourists,
tourism officials want to develop facilities outside of Lhasa as

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well as high-quality tourist packages that will increase the
average spending of visitors to the TAR. During 2007, the
number of Japanese tourists exceeded the number of tourists from
the United States for the first time. (Note: according to one
official press report, approximately 78,000 Japanese tourists
visited the TAR in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 488 percent.
End Note.) Wang commented that Japanese tourists are very
fussy about quality while U.S. tourists are "more
understanding." Although the Potala Palace has a nominal 2,500
visitor daily limit to control crowding, the limit is often
exceeded during the peak season. The TAR is cooperating with
the UN Development Program on a USD 400,000 project on
sustainable tourism development.



Pressures on the Environment

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5. (SBU) Wang noted that China's 11th Five-Year Program
anticipates TAR tourism will reach six million by 2010, the last
year of the program, and nine million during the course of the
Twelfth Five-Year Program. Protecting Tibet's tourism is
essential, Wang asserted. Future tourism development will
depend upon first satisfying the condition that the environment
must be protected. Wang claimed the Tourism Bureau has little
idea of the relative numbers of migrant workers versus tourists
to the TAR. He noted, however, he thought the Qinghai-Tibet
Railroad kept a record of such information.



Lhasa's New Railway Station

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6. (C) Based just upon our initial observations, the three
platforms and seven tracks of the massive Lhasa station, would
appear to provide considerable room for expansion of rail
passenger and freight service to what remains a relatively small
city by Chinese standards. Two to three additional platforms
and four to six tracks could be added in the empty area just
beyond the platforms. (Comment: judging by labels on consumer
products we saw on store shelves in Lhasa, it appears that
Lanzhou in Gansu Province may have become a major logistics
center for the TAR. End Comment.)




7. (SBU) When asked about possible railroad expansion into other
areas of the TAR, Lhasa's deputy stationmaster noted that early
official reports the rail system would be extended to Shigatse
by 2009 were overly optimistic and the project has not yet even
started. According to the deputy stationmaster, during peak
season 4,000 people per day arrive in Lhasa by train. From
November to March (off-season),the trains are often half empty.
The railroad "just sells tickets," the stationmaster claimed,
it does not keep data on the breakdown between migrant workers,
businesspeople, and tourists visiting the TAR. Based on an
informal survey, foreigners arriving on the train are mostly
from Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia. When asked about
freight tonnage on the train, the deputy stationmaster noted
very little cargo moves out of the TAR, but that a lot of food
and "beer" is brought in on the train.




8. (SBU) According to the deputy stationmaster, train service
has been reliable, although the recent heavy snows in the
Changsha, Hunan area prevented Guangzhou trains from reaching
Lhasa for several days. The Qinghai-Tibet Railroad is training
the first generation of Tibetan railroad workers: 28 of the 156
workers at the station are ethnic Tibetans. Cars for the
Qinghai-Tibet Railroad are manufactured in Qinghai using
Canadian technology. Waste water from the train is not dumped
on the tracks as happens sometimes in inland China but is
instead stored in tanks under each car and then drained into
sewerage plants at railroad stations in Xining, Golmud, and
Lhasa.




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A Visit to the Labor Office

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9. (C) Yeshi, an ethnic Tibetan who is vice director of the TAR
Labor and Employment Service Bureau, told us frankly that
government authorities do not control or tightly regulate the
migration of workers to the TAR from inland China. Many people
find jobs through relatives and friends. During 2007, the
Service Bureau helped 27,000 people find jobs and the official
unemployment rate is 4.3 percent. Officially, the TAR labor
force has reached 1.55 million, a figure that includes some
migrant workers. When asked directly to what extent labor force
statistics include migrant workers, Yeshi appeared to have no
idea. Based on what Yeshi told us, there may be no active
collection of statistics on migrant workers coming to Tibet by
the labor authorities. (Note: Chinese academics who study
migration into Lhasa rely on estimates from the TAR Public
Security Bureau and the Family Planning authorities - see
reftels a and b. End Note.) Yeshi remarked the biggest problem
faced by the Labor Service Bureau is the great difficulty of
facilitating the export of rural labor to urban areas. (Comment:
While migration to the cities and remittances back home from
rural migrants are an important source of income for rural
China, rural Tibetans who seek to migrant to the Chinese
interior or to Lhasa face a language barrier and competition
from inland Chinese. End comment.)



Nepali Consulate on Lhasa's Growth and the Railroad

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10. (C) A Nepali consul (protect),who has worked in Lhasa for
three years, told CG his Consulate's best estimate for Lhasa's
population is 800,000 people. The increase in the number of
ethnic Han residing in the city has been quite noticeable during
his tenure. Citing what he referred to as more conservative
estimates for the population of Lhasa at between 300,000 to
500,000 people, with an ethnic composition of between 50 to 75
percent Tibetan, the Nepali consul observed the inflow of Han
during recent years means the city's current population is
either predominantly Han or soon will be. He added, however,
that rural Tibetans have also been migrating to Lhasa. The
Consul estimated 82 percent of businesses in Lhasa are run by
Han.




11. (C) Although no specific time table has been announced for
extending the Qinghai-Tibet railroad from Lhasa to Shigatse,
local authorities have told the Nepali Consulate they will only
need two years to complete the project once it is begun. Keen
to try to increase exports from Nepal to China, Nepal has
officially requested that a railway spur be eventually built
from Shigatse to the Nepal-China border. The consul also noted,
however, such a line would likely result in more Chinese goods
going into Nepal.



Comments

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12. (C) As illustrated by our recent visit, it is difficult to
get a precise handle on the current population of Lhasa and its
ethnic breakdown. Reftels discuss possible interpretations and
analyses, noting that official population statistics for any
city in China do not usually include migrant labor and
government authorities are not always consistent in specifying
whether overall city population statistics they cite include
outlying districts. According to an official August 2005 report
(which did include estimates on migrant labor) that we accessed
from a Lhasa City government web site, Lhasa's urban population
was then 257,000 people including a floating population of
100,000 migrant workers and tourists. This official website
2005 report (online at
http://tinyurl.com/ypt8xo ) estimate of 100,000 migrant workers
in Lhasa during peak season is consistent with some Chinese

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scholarly estimates (reftels) based on public security and
family planning data which add number of migrant workers and
tourists to the officially registered population rather than, as
in the website report, including them in the urban population.




13. (C) Post notes that this 2005 floating population estimate
(likely accurate) may have been placed on the Lhasa website by
mistake, since migrant worker counts, as noted above, are as a
rule not included in Chinese estimates of urban population. The
2005 report also claimed 264,000 additional people in
"agriculture and pastoral" districts under Lhasa city, for a
total Lhasa population of permanent population of 521,500
people, 90 percent of whom were reportedly ethnic Tibetans or
other minorities (an almost impossible low and logically
inconsistent figure of about 52,000 Han). Anecdotal reports and
scholarly studies suggest that the proportion of Tibetans is
much lower, especially in the urban districts. A 2006 scholarly
study (reftel A) found 34 percent ethnic Han in urban districts
(or at least 17 percent Han overall since the urban district was
about half the population) already in 2000.




14. (C) Recent estimates of some Chinese scholars put Lhasa's
permanent urban population ("shi qu") at around 400,000, to
which they add over 200,000 migrant workers (mostly from inland
China) during the peak season. Over the last several years, and
especially after the July 2006 start of train service, Lhasa's
migrant worker and tourist population has grown very rapidly.
Realistically, based on continued inflows of people from inland
China, as well as the observations of most longtime Tibet
watchers, there appears little doubt that Lhasa is becoming
increasingly Han.




15. (U) This report was coordinated with Embassy Beijing.
BOUGHNER