ID LEADER DE LILLE BELIEVES ZUMA GOING TO JAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000047

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT: ID LEADER DE LILLE BELIEVES ZUMA GOING TO JAIL

REF: A. PRETORIA 43 AND PREVIOUS

B. 2000 PRETORIA 9150

C. 2003 PRETORIA 3421

D. PRETORIA 66

E. CAPE TOWN 38

F. PRETORIA 306

CAPE TOWN 00000047 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prominent opposition leader Patricia de
Lille believes ANC President Jacob Zuma will likely be
convicted on fraud and corruption charges. De Lille doubts
Zuma's trial, scheduled to begin in August, will be complete
before the national parliamentary elections in March/April
2009, putting the ANC in an "awkward spot" given that it has
already decided that the ANC president will be its candidate
for national president. De Lille strongly opposes the ANC
push to disband the Scorpions. She has always found the
Scorpions to be effective and independent -- unlike the
police. The latest political attack on the Scorpions comes
from the ANC-led Parliamentary Intelligence Committee. The
Committee charged that senior Scorpions officials drafted the
"Special Mole Browse Report," which alleged that Angola and
Libya funded Zuma's ANC election campaign. De Lille
dismissed the Intelligence Committee criticism as politically
motivated. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Zuma Likely to be Found Guilty
--------------


2. (C) In a February 27 meeting in her parliamentary offices
in Cape Town, Independent Democratic (ID) party leader
Patricia de Lille told Ambassador, Consul General, and PolOff
(notetaker) that she believes Jacob Zuma will be convicted
of fraud and corruption. The case against Zuma is nearly
identical to that against Schabir Shaik -- and Shaik was
convicted and lost every appeal (ref A). De Lille has
"absolute faith" in the South African judiciary. She
questioned whether the trial against Zuma would be completed
before the national parliamentary elections in March/April
2009, noting that prosecutors want to call 218 witnesses,
include de Lille herself. (NOTE: While still a member of the
Pan African Congress (PAC),de Lille was one of the first
Members of Parliament to raise questions about corruption in
the arms deal (ref B). De Lille left the PAC to found the
Independent Democrats in 2003 (ref C),but the party has
struggled to attract support. In the 2004 elections, the ID
garnered only 1.73 percent of the vote, mostly among the
colored community in Western Cape. END NOTE.)


3. (C) If the trial of Zuma drags into 2009, the ANC will be
put in an awkward position. The National Executive Committee
(NEC) has already decided that the President of the ANC --
now Jacob Zuma -- will be the party's candidate for national
president (ref D). Zuma himself is "quite stubborn" and is
unlikely to step aside for another candidate, even if his
trial is not complete before the election date.

--------------
ANC Divided
--------------


4. (C) The ANC caucus in Parliament is divided, de Lille
said, with Zuma supporters now largely in control of the
leadership. The internal ANC squabbles and corruption
scandals create political opportunities for opposition
parties in the 2009 elections, de Lille said. She
criticized Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Helen Zille for
"cozying up" to the Mbeki camp in the ANC, telling Zille
directly that "she is making a fool of herself." Mbeki and
Zuma supporters are all still part of the same party machine.

--------------
Opposition to End of Scorpions
--------------


5. (C) De Lille expressed her strong opposition to the ANC
proposal to disband the Directorate for Special Operations of
the National Prosecuting Authority, popularly known as the
Scorpions (refs E & F). She has worked closely with the
Scorpions on a number of corruption scandals, and has always
found them independent and responsive -- unlike the police.
The Scorpions, de Lille noted, were particularly effective
because they had the power to arrest, investigate, and

CAPE TOWN 00000047 002.2 OF 002


prosecute criminals. Mbeki has been ambiguous on whether the
proposed new police unit, combining the Scorpions with the
South African Police Service's Organized Crime Unit, will
retain prosecutorial powers. De Lille thinks this is a key
point and will specifically ask the President in Parliament
on March 6 about the powers of the new unit. The current
staff of the Scorpions are "morally drained" and exhausted by
the constant attacks. Scorpions investigators are highly
skilled, and many are already looking for other work.


6. (C) According to de Lille, Zuma supporters are using a
Parliamentary Intelligence Committee investigation into the
"Special Browse Mole Consolidated Report" to attack the
Scorpions (septel). (NOTE: The Browse report was an
internal South African Government document, leaked to the
press in 2007, that alleged that the Governments of Angola
and Libya were funding Jacob Zuma's campaign for ANC
President against Thabo Mbeki. Zuma supporters claimed that
the "Browse Mole Report" was fabricated and part of a dirty
tricks campaign by Mbeki to discredit Zuma. END NOTE.) The
Parliamentary report charged that senior Scorpions officials
drafted the "Browse Mole Report," using faulty intelligence
received from discredited "information peddlers" even though
they had no mandate or authorization to do so. De Lille
noted that this is the first time the Intelligence Committee
has publicly released an internal report, confirming for her
that the investigation is nothing more than a political
witchhunt against the Scorpions. She expressed concern about
the increasing use of state institutions to fight political
battles.

--------------
SAG Incompetence on Electricity Crisis
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador expressed his concern that South Africa's
recent electricity crisis will discourage international
investment in the country. De Lille agreed, noting that the
crisis was a "wake-up call" to South Africans. Nearly 7,000
miners have already lost jobs due to the energy shortage. De
Lille's party had called for the vote of no confidence in
Mbeki's government because of their complete failure to deal
with the energy issue, despite being
alerted 10 years ago to the impending crisis (ref F).

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) Opinionated and energetic, de Lille has been unable to
translate her personal popularity into electoral strength at
the polls, in part because of her poor management of the
party and large ego. However, de Lille continues to play a
vocal role in Parliament and the press on issues of
government accountability and corruption. We agree with de
Lille that the ANC push to disband the Scorpions is
unfortunate given the Directorate's strong record of
successful prosecutions against corrupt officials and
organized crime.


9. (U) MINIMIZE CONSIDERED FOR TRIPOLI.
LA LIME