FREEDOM FRONT MP BEMOANS LACK OF ELECTION RESOURCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAPE TOWN 000230


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT: FREEDOM FRONT MP BEMOANS LACK OF ELECTION RESOURCES

Classified By: Consul General Alberta Mayberry, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Freedom Front Plus (FF ) Member of
Parliament Pieter Groenewald on November 19 told PolOffs that
while he thought the party would make strides in next year's
national election, possibly doubling its five-member
parliamentary delegation, he was pessimistic about the
party's ability to raise funds in a crowded electoral
landscape and boost its national profile. Groenewald noted
that the Freedom Front was not averse to joining coalitions
and would gladly do so as long as such moves did not
compromise the party's values. Looking at the national
political scene, while he did not believe the newly formed
Congress of the People (COPE) would take a large number of
votes, he was confident their presence would keep the ANC
from winning a two-thirds majority. End summary.


2. (C) Groenewald -- a former Armscor executive who has been
active in politics since the mid-1980s -- told Poloffs that
he was generally optimistic about the Freedom Front's chances
of expanding its support in next year's national election.
Although the party's natural base -- Afrikaners primarily
concerned with preserving their linguistic identity -- was a
relatively small one, it is one that still had room for
growth over the approximately one percent of the vote the
party has received in polls since 1994. Groenewald noted
that the party is very strong among young Afrikaner voters,
who, he said, suffer from the legacy of apartheid without
having received any of its benefits. Freedom Front
representatives, he noted, control the Student Representative
Councils of both the University of Pretoria and University of
the Free State (both of which now are majority black).


3. (C) Groenewald also noted that the party has growing
support among colored voters, most of whom are
Afrikaans-speaking and share at least some of the party's
concerns over the decline of Afrikaans as a medium. He added
that further support from non-Afrikaans speakers was possible
as well, noting that in 2004, to universal surprise, the
Freedom Front won over 1,000 votes in Soweto. All in all,
Groenewald thought these trends bode well for the Freedom
Front, and he said he believed the party would double its
five-member representation in Parliament after the 2009 poll.


4. (C) The big problem, however, was money -- a theme echoed
by nearly every opposition party. Groenewald said the
Freedom Front has a difficult time fundraising and that,
since communal money given out by the Independent Electoral
Commission is given out in proportion to party strength, the
Freedom Front and other small parties were unable to leverage
it for any real gain. Groenewald said this electoral cycle
will be particularly challenging because for the first time,
political parties will be allowed to have television
advertisements. While some space on SABC is slated to be set
aside for free advertising, the Freedom Front will not be
able to compete with the ANC and larger opposition parties.


5. (C) While ultimately Groenewald had no hopes for the
Freedom Front winning a large percentage of the vote, he said
the party was not opposed to forming coaltions with other
opposition parties. He pointed out Freedom Front coalition
governments in Cape Town (where they back the DA-led city
government) and Richards Bay (where they work with the IFP)
as examples of this spirit of cooperation.

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THOUGHTS ON THE ANC AND COPE
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6. (C) Despite the fact that the Freedom Front is a leading
critic of the ANC government on a host of issues, Groenewald
Qcritic of the ANC government on a host of issues, Groenewald
claimed that relations between the two parties are very good.
He noted that unlike other opposition leaders (notably Tony
Leon when he was DA leader),Freedom Front leader Pieter
Mulder met with Thabo Mbeki frequently and that the Freedom
Front's platforms were well-respected by many within the ANC
(even if they could not say so publicly). Groenewald said
ANC Treasurer-General Matthews Phosa -- an accomplished
Afrikaans poet -- told him that he respected the party
because they did not say "yes baas" to the political
establishment and were not afraid to stand up for their
positions.


7. (C) Groenewald spoke favorably of Jacob Zuma -- whom he
believes will be President -- for having gone out of his way
to send the right messages to Afrikaners. Groenewald said
Zuma has gone out of his way to visit poor whites in Pretoria
West and has been accommodating of white South Africans in
his public statements. This is a stark comparison to Mbeki,
who repeatedly denied the existence of white poverty and, in
Groenewald's opinion, is "racist." Asked whether he trusts
Zuma, Groenewald admitted he did not, but he said the Freedom
Front is keeping track of his promises and intends to hold
him to them should he win the Presidency.


8. (C) Looking at the ramifications of the split in the ANC,
Groenewald said he did not think COPE would be quite the
electoral force that many political analysts were predicting.
The ANC's split, he noted, was not an absolute one in that
many capitalists, like Tokyo Sexwale, remained within the ANC
and would allow it to retain a great deal of support. He
pegged the new party's support at somewhere in the 10-12
percent range, noting that funding by business tycoon (and
longtime Mbeki ally) Saki Macozoma would ensure its strength.
This, he noted, would be enough to keep the ANC from winning
a two-thirds majority, pegging its likely support at 63
percent. (Note: It is unclear how Groenewald arrived at
these numbers, but their specificity suggests some sort of
internal party polling. End note.)

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Groenewald's complaints about money are common ones
among South Africa's opposition, even larger parties like the
Democratic Alliance. The need for expensive television
advertising in the upcoming poll will make this problem even
more acute. Yet even if it were awash in cash, the Freedom
Front's narrow focus on preserving Afrikaans language and
culture would make it a tough sell beyond a small Afrikaner
minority. The racial and ethnic specificity of its platform
and constituency severely limits its potential and will
continue to do so as long as it is popularly perceived as a
"white party." While the party has carved out a niche and
gained public attention for its attacks on corruption, the
disbandment of the Scorpions, and the controversial arms
deal, it has had -- and will have -- a hard time convincing
voters they are worth a ballot, particularly with the DA, and
maybe COPE, seeking to occupy the same political space.


MAYBERRY