Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CANBERRA983
2008-09-26 07:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:
AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-7
how-toP 260706Z SEP 08 FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0247 INFO AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000983
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-7
REF: CANBERRA 896
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole, for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).
POLL SHOCK FOR ALP STATES
C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000983
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-7
REF: CANBERRA 896
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole, for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).
POLL SHOCK FOR ALP STATES
1. (C/NF) The most recent quarterly Newspolls suggest
Australian Labor Party (ALP) state governments in Queensland
and South Australia are in trouble. After preferences, the
ALP leads the Liberal National Party (LNP) 51-49 in
Queensland in the first Newspoll taken since the Queensland
Liberals and Nationals merged in July. In the previous
Newspoll, the ALP led the Coalition 55-45. In South
Australia, the ALP and the Liberals are tied 50-50, down from
a 54-46 ALP advantage in the last poll. Federal ALP MP Julie
Collins (a former ALP Tasmanian State Secretary) also told us
recently that the decade-old Tasmanian ALP government is also
in trouble, despite a leadership change in May. New ALP
Senator David Feeney, one of the party's smartest
strategists, noted that these results are more an indication
of long-term ALP governments wearing out their political
welcome than any trend against the ALP per se (see reftel).
Before his election, Feeney was ALP Assistant National
Secretary. He was director of the marginal seats campaign
for the 2007 election, and was campaign manager for South
Australian Premier Mike Rann's prior campaign (which resulted
in a big win for Labor). The Queensland state elections will
likely be held in late 2009, and the South Australian and
Tasmanian elections in early 2010.
BAD START FOR NEW SHADOW TREASURER
2. (SBU) Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop had an
embarrassing start to her new portfolio. On Monday evening -
the day of her appointment - Bishop stumbled in a radio
interview when asked what the official interest rate was. On
Tuesday, it was revealed that her first speech as Shadow
Treasurer plagiarized a Wall Street Journal article. Bishop
tried to spin her way out of both blunders, but merely dug
herself into a bigger hole. The ALP ridiculed her in
Question Time, and the media piled on. It was an unwelcome
distraction for the Coalition which is trying to keep the
focus on old-age pensions and the economy.
RUDD WON'T CAVE IN TO THE UNIONS
3. (C/NF) The Rudd government is not budging on its
industrial relations policies despite vigorous lobbying by
unions and pressure from some ALP MPs. The unions want a
lifting of restrictions on what can be bargained for by the
parties to a workplace agreement. They also want provisions
for arbitration of wage disputes, and the abolition of the
building industry watchdog. ALP Senator Feeney told us those
he characterized as the "rock apes" in the union movement
will get nowhere. He said Rudd won't change policies he
brought to the election, and the Prime Minister has
"unprecedented authority" in Caucus. He praised the approach
of union pragmatists like Australian Workers Union Secretary
Paul Howes who is pushing for changes which accord with ALP
policy.
TWO OUT OF THREE FOR ALP IN THE SENATE
4. (SBU) Two high-profile Rudd government budget measures -
staunchly opposed by the Coalition - passed the Senate this
week. The increase to the luxury car tax passed with
amendments moved by the Greens and the two other swing
Senators. The removal of the tax exemption for oil
condensate (the exemption introduced in 1977 to encourage
exploration in the North West Shelf) passed with an amendment
moved by Independent Senator Nick Xenophon. However, the
Coalition and Family First Senator Stephen Fielding combined
QCoalition and Family First Senator Stephen Fielding combined
to block the proposed lifting of the Medicare Levy Surcharge
threshold. The Surcharge was introduced by the Howard
government in 1997 to encourage the take-up of private health
insurance. The lifting of the threshold, which has always"
been $50,000 for individuals, is projected to result in
people leaving private health insurance, putting upward
pressure on premiums. Fielding is holding out for
compensation for low income earners who will pay higher
premiums. Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the
Liberal party had denied 400,000 Australians a tax cut.
MCCALLUM
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-7
REF: CANBERRA 896
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole, for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).
POLL SHOCK FOR ALP STATES
1. (C/NF) The most recent quarterly Newspolls suggest
Australian Labor Party (ALP) state governments in Queensland
and South Australia are in trouble. After preferences, the
ALP leads the Liberal National Party (LNP) 51-49 in
Queensland in the first Newspoll taken since the Queensland
Liberals and Nationals merged in July. In the previous
Newspoll, the ALP led the Coalition 55-45. In South
Australia, the ALP and the Liberals are tied 50-50, down from
a 54-46 ALP advantage in the last poll. Federal ALP MP Julie
Collins (a former ALP Tasmanian State Secretary) also told us
recently that the decade-old Tasmanian ALP government is also
in trouble, despite a leadership change in May. New ALP
Senator David Feeney, one of the party's smartest
strategists, noted that these results are more an indication
of long-term ALP governments wearing out their political
welcome than any trend against the ALP per se (see reftel).
Before his election, Feeney was ALP Assistant National
Secretary. He was director of the marginal seats campaign
for the 2007 election, and was campaign manager for South
Australian Premier Mike Rann's prior campaign (which resulted
in a big win for Labor). The Queensland state elections will
likely be held in late 2009, and the South Australian and
Tasmanian elections in early 2010.
BAD START FOR NEW SHADOW TREASURER
2. (SBU) Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop had an
embarrassing start to her new portfolio. On Monday evening -
the day of her appointment - Bishop stumbled in a radio
interview when asked what the official interest rate was. On
Tuesday, it was revealed that her first speech as Shadow
Treasurer plagiarized a Wall Street Journal article. Bishop
tried to spin her way out of both blunders, but merely dug
herself into a bigger hole. The ALP ridiculed her in
Question Time, and the media piled on. It was an unwelcome
distraction for the Coalition which is trying to keep the
focus on old-age pensions and the economy.
RUDD WON'T CAVE IN TO THE UNIONS
3. (C/NF) The Rudd government is not budging on its
industrial relations policies despite vigorous lobbying by
unions and pressure from some ALP MPs. The unions want a
lifting of restrictions on what can be bargained for by the
parties to a workplace agreement. They also want provisions
for arbitration of wage disputes, and the abolition of the
building industry watchdog. ALP Senator Feeney told us those
he characterized as the "rock apes" in the union movement
will get nowhere. He said Rudd won't change policies he
brought to the election, and the Prime Minister has
"unprecedented authority" in Caucus. He praised the approach
of union pragmatists like Australian Workers Union Secretary
Paul Howes who is pushing for changes which accord with ALP
policy.
TWO OUT OF THREE FOR ALP IN THE SENATE
4. (SBU) Two high-profile Rudd government budget measures -
staunchly opposed by the Coalition - passed the Senate this
week. The increase to the luxury car tax passed with
amendments moved by the Greens and the two other swing
Senators. The removal of the tax exemption for oil
condensate (the exemption introduced in 1977 to encourage
exploration in the North West Shelf) passed with an amendment
moved by Independent Senator Nick Xenophon. However, the
Coalition and Family First Senator Stephen Fielding combined
QCoalition and Family First Senator Stephen Fielding combined
to block the proposed lifting of the Medicare Levy Surcharge
threshold. The Surcharge was introduced by the Howard
government in 1997 to encourage the take-up of private health
insurance. The lifting of the threshold, which has always"
been $50,000 for individuals, is projected to result in
people leaving private health insurance, putting upward
pressure on premiums. Fielding is holding out for
compensation for low income earners who will pay higher
premiums. Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the
Liberal party had denied 400,000 Australians a tax cut.
MCCALLUM