Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CANBERRA899
2008-09-10 08:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:
PM RUDD OFFERS LONG-TERM STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF
how-toP 100829Z SEP 08 FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0118 INFO ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000899
STATE FOR PM AND EAP
DEFENSE FOR OSD
PACOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: MCAP PREL AS
SUBJECT: PM RUDD OFFERS LONG-TERM STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF
THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Crowley. Reasons 1.4 (b)
,(d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000899
STATE FOR PM AND EAP
DEFENSE FOR OSD
PACOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: MCAP PREL AS
SUBJECT: PM RUDD OFFERS LONG-TERM STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF
THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Crowley. Reasons 1.4 (b)
,(d).
1. (SBU) In a September 9 speech to a national veterans
organization, Prime Minister Rudd provided a long-range
forecast of key developments and challenges in the
Asia-Pacific region through the middle of the 21st century on
which Australian security strategy and defense capabilities
and force structure would be based. (The full transcript of
the speech is available at:
http://www.pm.gov.au/media/Speech/2008/speech 0468.cfm.)
Rudd identified five key threats that would define
Australia's national security strategy and defence posture
over the coming decades:
-- Increased militarization in the Asia-Pacific region;
-- The continuing threat of terrorism;
-- Challenges to Pacific Island countries' sovereignty;
-- Energy security; and
-- The impact of climate change on food and water security
3. (U) The United States would likely remain the world's only
superpower through to mid-century, Rudd predicted, but its
economic dominance would likely decline over the coming
decades, to be supplanted by China as the world's largest
economy, possibly by 2020 according to some estimates,
followed by India. Regional population growth -- estimated
at four billion by 2020, or 56 percent of the world's total--
would contribute to exacerbating food, water and energy
resource pressures in a region marked by continuing tensions,
including on the Korean peninsula, and between China and
Taiwan as well as other territorial disputes involving China.
4. (U) Rudd noted that the modernization of Asian military
forces was marked by significant improvements in air combat
capability and naval forces, including more advanced
submarines. To respond to this security environment,
Australia needed to develop a flexible land force capable of
taking on challenges from contributing to high-end military
engagements through to delivering post conflict
reconstruction support; an enhanced naval capability able to
protect Australian sea lanes and support land forces as they
deploy; an air force able to carry out support and combat
missions; and properly trained, professional soldiers able to
think tactically and strategically. Rudd conceded that the
Australian defence force had been "overstretched for a long
time," with the tempo of operational demands given precedence
over proper planning for personnel and equipment for the
future. He reiterated the government's commitment to real
growth of the defense budget by three percent per year to
2017-2018.
5. (U) In addition to strengthening Australia's military
capabilities, Rudd said the GOA would respond to the
long-range strategic challenges by enhancing its security
cooperation beyond the alliance with the United States, which
he characterized as "the bedrock" of Australia's strategic
policy, with such regional partners as Japan, Republic of
Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, and well as further
developing security policy cooperation with India and
security policy dialogue with China.
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) While some in the media, including the respected
daily, The Australian, seized on Rudd's speech as
foreshadowing a new Australian military build-up, a careful
reading of his remarks suggest they are a reiteration of
Qreading of his remarks suggest they are a reiteration of
long-standing views that likely also will be reflected in
both the GOA's forthcoming National Security Statement and
the Defence White Paper, due to be released by the end of the
year. Our contacts in the Defence Policy and Liaison Office
of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and in Defense
Minister Fitzgibbon's office have also confirmed that the
Prime Minister's remarks do not represent a departure from
established policy and thinking. While in opposition, Rudd
and members of the Labor Party had criticized the Howard
government's defence acquisition program as rushed and
lacking in overall coherence and planning. In Rudd's latest
speech, he has laid the groundwork for embracing the former
government's remaining major acquisition programs, including
three air warfare destroyers (with an option for a fourth to
be decided later this year) and up to 100 Joint Strike
Fighters. In keeping with Rudd's self-contained style, he
did not appear to have consulted widely within the
bureaucracy, catching many off guard with a major address,
and did not preview the speech with the press, which was left
to inflate the story.
MCCALLUM
STATE FOR PM AND EAP
DEFENSE FOR OSD
PACOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: MCAP PREL AS
SUBJECT: PM RUDD OFFERS LONG-TERM STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF
THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Crowley. Reasons 1.4 (b)
,(d).
1. (SBU) In a September 9 speech to a national veterans
organization, Prime Minister Rudd provided a long-range
forecast of key developments and challenges in the
Asia-Pacific region through the middle of the 21st century on
which Australian security strategy and defense capabilities
and force structure would be based. (The full transcript of
the speech is available at:
http://www.pm.gov.au/media/Speech/2008/speech 0468.cfm.)
Rudd identified five key threats that would define
Australia's national security strategy and defence posture
over the coming decades:
-- Increased militarization in the Asia-Pacific region;
-- The continuing threat of terrorism;
-- Challenges to Pacific Island countries' sovereignty;
-- Energy security; and
-- The impact of climate change on food and water security
3. (U) The United States would likely remain the world's only
superpower through to mid-century, Rudd predicted, but its
economic dominance would likely decline over the coming
decades, to be supplanted by China as the world's largest
economy, possibly by 2020 according to some estimates,
followed by India. Regional population growth -- estimated
at four billion by 2020, or 56 percent of the world's total--
would contribute to exacerbating food, water and energy
resource pressures in a region marked by continuing tensions,
including on the Korean peninsula, and between China and
Taiwan as well as other territorial disputes involving China.
4. (U) Rudd noted that the modernization of Asian military
forces was marked by significant improvements in air combat
capability and naval forces, including more advanced
submarines. To respond to this security environment,
Australia needed to develop a flexible land force capable of
taking on challenges from contributing to high-end military
engagements through to delivering post conflict
reconstruction support; an enhanced naval capability able to
protect Australian sea lanes and support land forces as they
deploy; an air force able to carry out support and combat
missions; and properly trained, professional soldiers able to
think tactically and strategically. Rudd conceded that the
Australian defence force had been "overstretched for a long
time," with the tempo of operational demands given precedence
over proper planning for personnel and equipment for the
future. He reiterated the government's commitment to real
growth of the defense budget by three percent per year to
2017-2018.
5. (U) In addition to strengthening Australia's military
capabilities, Rudd said the GOA would respond to the
long-range strategic challenges by enhancing its security
cooperation beyond the alliance with the United States, which
he characterized as "the bedrock" of Australia's strategic
policy, with such regional partners as Japan, Republic of
Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, and well as further
developing security policy cooperation with India and
security policy dialogue with China.
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) While some in the media, including the respected
daily, The Australian, seized on Rudd's speech as
foreshadowing a new Australian military build-up, a careful
reading of his remarks suggest they are a reiteration of
Qreading of his remarks suggest they are a reiteration of
long-standing views that likely also will be reflected in
both the GOA's forthcoming National Security Statement and
the Defence White Paper, due to be released by the end of the
year. Our contacts in the Defence Policy and Liaison Office
of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and in Defense
Minister Fitzgibbon's office have also confirmed that the
Prime Minister's remarks do not represent a departure from
established policy and thinking. While in opposition, Rudd
and members of the Labor Party had criticized the Howard
government's defence acquisition program as rushed and
lacking in overall coherence and planning. In Rudd's latest
speech, he has laid the groundwork for embracing the former
government's remaining major acquisition programs, including
three air warfare destroyers (with an option for a fourth to
be decided later this year) and up to 100 Joint Strike
Fighters. In keeping with Rudd's self-contained style, he
did not appear to have consulted widely within the
bureaucracy, catching many off guard with a major address,
and did not preview the speech with the press, which was left
to inflate the story.
MCCALLUM