MIXED RESULTS FOR OPPOSITION IN WEEKEND

UNCLAS CANBERRA 000864

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: MIXED RESULTS FOR OPPOSITION IN WEEKEND
BY-ELECTIONS

REF: CANBERRA 653


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: By-elections in two federal parliamentary
seats, caused by the resignation of former foreign minister
Alexander Downer and former leader of the National Party Mark
Vaile, will be held on Saturday September 6. The Liberal
Party is expected to comfortably retain Downer's seat of
Mayo, in Adelaide, while The Nationals are expected to lose
the seat of Lyne, in northern New South Wales, to an
independent. The Australian Labor Party (ALP) is not
contesting either seat, since its chances of victory in these
conservative electorates are very low. END SUMMARY.

NEW BLOOD FOR LIBERALS


2. (SBU) The by-election for the seat of Mayo, in the
Adelaide Hills, was caused by the resignation of former
Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. It will almost certainly
be retained by the Liberal Party. In the 2007 election,
Downer won with 51 percent of first preferences (after
distribution of preferences 57/43 against the ALP). Knowing
the seat is virtually unwinnable, the ALP decided not contest
the election because, as one South Australian ALP contact
said, it would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to run a
credible campaign. The Liberals' candidate is Jamie Briggs,
31, a former workplace relations adviser to ex-Prime Minister
John Howard. In spite of controversy over his role in
WorkChoices, Briggs should comfortably win the seat.

COALITION LIKELY TO LOSE SEAT


3. (SBU) The by-election for the seat of Lyne, in northern
New South Wales, was caused by the resignation of former
Howard Government Deputy Prime Minister and leader of The
Nationals, Mark Vaile. In the 2007 election, Vaile won the
seat with 52 percent of first preferences (after distribution
of preferences 63/37 against the ALP). Like Mayo, the ALP is
not wasting its time on a futile cause. At face value, The
Nationals should hold this seat. However, most observers are
predicting independent candidate Rob Oakeshott will win
comfortably.


4. In the 2007 New South Wales state election, Oakeshott won
a huge 67 percent of first preferences, while the Nationals
won only 19 percent and the ALP 9 percent. Oakeshott's
former state seat of Port Macquarie takes in a around half
the voters of Lyne. The Liberals seriously considered
running in Lyne but decided not to after Oakeshott announced
his candidacy. Oakeshott entered the NSW parliament in 1996
as a National and is a former adviser to Vaile. The
Nationals' candidate is Rob Drew, who was sacked in February
as Mayor of Port Macquarie by the NSW government as a result
of alleged financial mismanagement.

NO MORALE BOOST FOR COALITION


4. (SBU) COMMENT: If results are as expected, there will be
significant discussion over the future of The Nationals, and
the desirability of a federal merger with the Liberals. Lyne
is a perfect example of why the National Party is declining.
A coastal NSW seat that was once a National Party stronghold,
Lyne has experienced an influx of retirees and younger voters
and a decline in the agricultural sector. Mark Vaile, as a
long-serving member, was able to hold the seat for the
Nationals but now that he has gone, the party has no
advantage. The loss of Lyne will reduce the Coalition's
numbers in the House of Representatives to 64 seats and leave
The Nationals' with only nine members. It will bring the
number of independents to three, all former Nationals.
Unlike the Gippsland by-election two months ago (reftel),
neither of these by-elections will provide a morale boost for
Qneither of these by-elections will provide a morale boost for
the Coalition. With the ALP not contesting, the Western
Australian state election, held on the same day (septel),
will have greater implications for the Rudd government.

MCCALLUM