DOMESTIC POLITICAL WEEK IN AUSTRALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000723

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2018
TAGS: AS PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMESTIC POLITICAL WEEK IN AUSTRALIA

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES COLE. REASON: 1.4 (D)


NASTY LIBERAL PRE-SELECTION FIGHT IN SA


1. (SBU) The Liberal Party will hold a candidate
pre-election on Sunday July 20 to choose its candidate for a
by-election caused by the resignation of former Foreign
Minister Alexander Downer. Nine candidates and a
preferential voting system make the outcome extremely
unpredictable. Most observers believe the front-runners to
be Jamie Briggs (a former adviser workplace relations adviser
to John Howard),former South Australian Opposition leader
Lain Evans, and farmer David Basham. Briggs and Evans have
support from the right of the party, while Basham has support
from moderate faction.


2. (SBU) The moderates are attempting to undermine Brigg's
credibility by linking him to the Howard administration's
unpopular WorkChoices laws. The head of the moderates,
Federal MP Christopher Pyne, is strongly opposed to Briggs.
Briggs is being backed by Howard, Downer and former Howard
Chief of Staff Arthur Sinodinis. Howard has written a
reference for Briggs. The pre-selection has caused tension
between Downer and his long-time factional allay, Senate
Leader Nick Minchin - Minchin is backing his former adviser
Matt Doman.


3. (SBU) A Minchin adviser told us recently that it is
impossible to confidently predict an outcome, while a Pyne
adviser maintained to us that Evans is the front-runner.
Former Liberal Federal Director Lynton Crosby believes Basham
has the best chance of winning. The South Australian Liberal
Executive, dominated by moderates, moved the pre-selection
forward two days to Sunday. It is believed this will benefit
Basham because a weekend pre-selection makes it easier for
his rural based supporters to attend the pre-selection.
Briggs has put the most effort into winning the
pre-selection. For the last 6 months he has assiduously
courted pre-selectors. The backing of Howard - still popular
with the Liberal rank and file - might be enough to get him
over the line.

ALP "HIGHLY UNLIKELY" TO RUN IN MAYO


4. (C/NF) An ALP Assistant State Secretary told us this
week that it is "highly unlikely" that the ALP will run a
candidate in Mayo because it is a safe Liberal seat; and it
would cost $100,000 to $300,000 to run a credible face-saving
campaign.

HOWARD BACKS NELSON


5. (C/NF) An adviser to Federal Liberal leader Brendan
Nelson had a lengthy conversation with former PM John Howard
early this week. The adviser told us that Howard believed
Nelson had adopted the right strategy by warning the public
of "economic suicide" if Australia adopted an emissions
trading system before the rest of the world. However,
following pressure from the media and colleagues, Nelson
reverted to the Coalition's policy of backing the
introduction of an emissions trading scheme by 2012 -
regardless of what other countries do. Ironically, Howard
was Liberal leader when the Liberals adopted this policy.


CLUNE