FORMER HOWARD MINISTER ON RUDD, POLITICS, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000644

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM AS
SUBJECT: FORMER HOWARD MINISTER ON RUDD, POLITICS, AND
INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS

REF: 07 CANBERRA 956


Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Former Howard Government Indigenous
Affairs Minister Mal Brough, who has just been elected
president of the Liberal Party in Queensland, told the
Ambassador June 25 that complaints of overcentralization in
the Prime Minister's office reflected the natural tendency of
fellow Queenslander Kevin Rudd to control the process of
governing, something he had also done when he ran the
Queensland state government. Commenting on the leadership of
the Liberal Party, he said that it was clear the public had
made up its mind about Brendan Nelson and his approval rating
was unlikely to improve. Malcolm Turnbull cared only about
Turnbull and his attempts to undermine Nelson's leadership
had cost him support in the Liberal Party. Brough noted that
he was in the middle of negotiations regarding the merger of
the Liberal and National Parties in Queensland. He favored
the merger but it was still unclear if it would take place.
On indigenous issues, Brough lamented the fact that the
process he had begun with the intervention a year ago seemed
to be going backward. Rudd, he said, was not seriously
committed to helping the indigenous. END SUMMARY


2. (C/NF) Brough met with the Ambassador in Canberra on June

25. He had been the federal MP for the seat of Longman, in
the Northern suburbs of Brisbane, from 1996 until last
November's federal election. Brough said he knew more than a
year before the election that he would lose his seat to the
Australian Labor Party (ALP) candidate but that he and John
Howard had decided he was the Liberal Party's best chance.
In 2006, former Prime Minister John Howard appointed him
Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous
Affairs. In June 2007, after receiving a report of rampant
child abuse on indigenous communities in the Northern
Territories (called "The Little Children are Sacred" see
reftel),Brough convinced Howard to order the federal
government to intervene in the indigenous communities in the
Northern Territories (NT). Brough withdrew from politics for
several months after his election defeat but stayed actively
involved in indigenous affairs. In May, he was elected
President of the Queensland Liberal Party and is currently
negotiating a merger of the Liberal and National Parties in
Queensland.

RUDD THE CONTROLLER


3. (C/NF) Commenting on fellow Queenslander Kevin Rudd's
governing style, Brough said that the Prime Minister's office
will continue to centralize the decision-making process.
Rudd had been obsessed with controlling the governing process
in Queensland when he worked for Premier Wayne Goss and he
was continuing that style in Canberra. Brough noted that the
press gallery had already turned against Rudd and the senior
public service was "livid." Brough recounted that senior
public servants he had talked to complained they would get
requests at 6:30am to deliver a report at 7:30am and then
never hear another word on the subject. However, Brough
agreed that Rudd's popularity with the voting public remains
high. Brough predicted that the public will realize what
Rudd is like in 12-18 months and his popularity would fall.
The Liberal Party could take advantage of this, Brough
maintained, if it could straighten out its leadership
situation.

LIBERAL PARTY LEADERSHIP


4. (C/NF) Brough said he thought Liberal Party Leader Brendan
Q4. (C/NF) Brough said he thought Liberal Party Leader Brendan
Nelson was a good man but unfortunately, the public had not
warmed up to him. Some politicians, like former Australian
Labor Party (ALP) leaders Kim Beazley and Simon Crean and now
Nelson, just never resonated with the public and their
polling numbers reflected that. Malcolm Turnbull had lost
support in the Coalition parliamentary caucus, Brough stated.
Turnbull was only interested in Turnbull and his constant
undermining of Nelson had hurt him in the eyes of many of his
colleagues. Some in the Liberal caucus supported Turnbull as
Leader only because they wanted to put him in a position to
fail, Brough declared. He thought that Turnbull would become
Opposition Leader at some point in the future and would land
some blows on the Government as Leader but he predicts
Turnbull would ultimately fail. The public support for
Costello returning as Leader, Brough noted, was likely a
reflection of concern about the economy. He said he had seen
Costello recently and even though they were good friends,
Costello refused to reveal his future intentions. Brough
opined that he thought Costello's chance and desire to be
Leader had passed.

LIBERAL-NATIONAL MERGER HANGS IN THE BALANCE


5. (C/NF) Brough told the Ambassador the merger between the
Liberal and National parties in Queensland was not yet
settled. National Party Leader Lawrence Springborg and some
of the state party officials, he said, did not understand
what they needed to do and they regarded Brough as a
potential rival. For example, one merger proposal called for
all current National and Liberal Party incumbents to keep
their seats for one term. A new right-of-center, merged
party could only succeed if it presented itself as something
new, Brough explained. What kind of message did this
incumbency policy send about renewal? Brough noted that the
negotiations through this weekend would be decisive. Ballots
on the merger were due from Liberal Party members by Monday
and he would be announcing the result on Tuesday.

THE NATIONAL PARTY IS FINISHED


6. (C/NF) A merger in Queensland was essential, Brough
declared, because the National Party could not win any seats
in Southeast Queensland. The people from Sydney and
Melbourne who had moved to Queensland recognized only the
Liberal Party and the ALP as political brands. The National
Party meant nothing to them, he said. If you looked at the
National's federal MPs, they were mostly over 60. Once they
left, the Liberal Party or the ALP would win their seats. In
the near future, Brough predicted, the Nationals would have
less than five seats in Parliament, and no longer be a
recognized party. Brough said a federal merger would also
make sense but the best chance for success was this year
(presumably because of the likely Queensland merger and the
policy review currently being conducted by both Coalition
parties).

INDIGENOUS INTERVENTION


7. (C/NF) Brough lamented what he said was the flagging
federal government commitment to the NT intervention. Rudd
and Indigenous Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin did not know
what to do, he maintained. Rudd had issued the apology to
the indigenous in Australia, but he had yet to visit an
aboriginal community (NOTE: Rudd has visited a community in
New South Wales but none in the Northern Territories).
Children were healthier and going to school, Brough noted,
but the concept of school was still alien to many in the
communities. Meanwhile, the Government of South Australia
had received a report on child sexual abuse as damning as the
"Little Children are Sacred" report and neither it nor the
federal government had responded (NOTE: the April 2008 report
by former state Supreme Court judge Ted Mullighan). Brough
said he was working with members of the indigenous community
in South Australia to get them to identify for the police the
pedophiles and sexual predators.


8. (C/NF) COMMENT: Brough is a staunch member of the Liberal
Party so he is unlikely to make flattering comments about
Rudd and the ALP. On the other hand, Brough, like Rudd, is
from Queensland so he may know the Prime Minister better than
most other commentators. His comments on the Liberal Party
track what we have heard from other sources. Rudd and
Macklin have in fact adopted much of the Howard Government's
intervention in the NT, although their approach appears to be
more cautious and consultative. Brough is extremely popular
in Queensland, and, if he eventually returns to federal
politics, it will be good news for a Liberal Party that will
Qpolitics, it will be good news for a Liberal Party that will
need to win some of the Queensland seats that local boys Rudd
and Treasurer Wayne Swan helped the ALP win in 2007.

MCCALLLUM