Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CANBERRA630
2008-06-20 08:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Canberra
how-toP 200801Z JUN 08 FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9744 INFO AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000630
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-6
REF: PERTH 27
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Crowley, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
HIGH STAKES BY-ELECTION IN VICTORIA
C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000630
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-6
REF: PERTH 27
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Crowley, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
HIGH STAKES BY-ELECTION IN VICTORIA
1. (C/NF) The National Party's federal director, Brad
Henderson (protect),told us today that the June 28
by-election for the federal parliamentary seat of Gippsland,
in Victoria, is "high stakes stuff" for the Liberal-National
Coalition. A bad result for the Coalition would further
destabilize Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson's leadership,
and fuel talk of the National's long-term viability.
Henderson said the Australian Labor Party (ALP) had increased
its activity in the seat in the last two weeks and it would
not surprise him if Prime Minister Kevin Rudd visited this
weekend. Although Henderson said the campaign was close,
most observers believe the National Party will retain the
seat.
WA LIBERAL LEADER SURVIVES AGAIN AS GAS CRISIS SPARKS
ELECTION FEVER
2. (SBU) Western Australian (WA) Liberal Party Leader Troy
Buswell survived a second leadership challenge this week.
The parliamentary "spill" motion to replace Buswell lost by a
21-8 vote of the state Liberal Party parliamentary caucus.
To make matters worse, former Leader Paul Omodei, who lost
the leadership to Buswell in January, resigned from
parliament on June 19. Meanwhile Premier Alan Carpenter took
to the streets of Perth on June 18 to promote his leadership
in the wake of the Varanus gas explosion (reftel). Since the
June 3 gas explosion, Carpenter has side-lined his mediocre
Energy Minister Fran Logan and chaired crisis meetings with
resources industry executives and government officials,
earning him new respect as a leader. Carpenter's success as
a crisis manager, and the Liberal Party's woes are
strengthening the ALP's already-good prospects in the state
election due by early 2009.
BALANCE OF POWER IN NEW SENATE
3. (C/NF) Queensland Liberal Party Senator Brett Mason
(protect) told us June 18 that although the Coalition will
lose its Senate majority July 1, it will need only one more
vote to block legislation. With 37 Coalition senators, and
37 ALP and Green senators, the ALP will need both Family
First Senator Steve Fielding and in-coming South Australian
independent Senator Nick Xenophon to pass legislation, Mason
said. He noted that both Fielding and Xenophon were
"conservatives," although he thought the Senate would
generally work constructively with the Rudd Government. Like
Rudd, Fielding and Xenophon both favor limiting gambling and
binge drinking and the two senators believe WorkChoices went
too far.
THE NEW GOVERNMENT IN TASMANIA
4. (C/NF) Tasmanian ALP MP Julie Collins (protect) told
poloffs this week that she thought new Premier David Bartlett
had started well. Although inexperienced, he was bright and
a quick study. Since he did not come from the union
movement, like the former, unpopular Premier Paul Lennon, it
was easier for him to portray his government as a fresh start
for the ALP. Collins said Bartlett was not as supportive of
the Gunns pulp mill as Lennon had been. For example, she
pointed out, no money had been allocated in the new state
budget for the infrastructure improvements Lennon had
promised Gunns.
MCCALLUM
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-6
REF: PERTH 27
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Crowley, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
HIGH STAKES BY-ELECTION IN VICTORIA
1. (C/NF) The National Party's federal director, Brad
Henderson (protect),told us today that the June 28
by-election for the federal parliamentary seat of Gippsland,
in Victoria, is "high stakes stuff" for the Liberal-National
Coalition. A bad result for the Coalition would further
destabilize Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson's leadership,
and fuel talk of the National's long-term viability.
Henderson said the Australian Labor Party (ALP) had increased
its activity in the seat in the last two weeks and it would
not surprise him if Prime Minister Kevin Rudd visited this
weekend. Although Henderson said the campaign was close,
most observers believe the National Party will retain the
seat.
WA LIBERAL LEADER SURVIVES AGAIN AS GAS CRISIS SPARKS
ELECTION FEVER
2. (SBU) Western Australian (WA) Liberal Party Leader Troy
Buswell survived a second leadership challenge this week.
The parliamentary "spill" motion to replace Buswell lost by a
21-8 vote of the state Liberal Party parliamentary caucus.
To make matters worse, former Leader Paul Omodei, who lost
the leadership to Buswell in January, resigned from
parliament on June 19. Meanwhile Premier Alan Carpenter took
to the streets of Perth on June 18 to promote his leadership
in the wake of the Varanus gas explosion (reftel). Since the
June 3 gas explosion, Carpenter has side-lined his mediocre
Energy Minister Fran Logan and chaired crisis meetings with
resources industry executives and government officials,
earning him new respect as a leader. Carpenter's success as
a crisis manager, and the Liberal Party's woes are
strengthening the ALP's already-good prospects in the state
election due by early 2009.
BALANCE OF POWER IN NEW SENATE
3. (C/NF) Queensland Liberal Party Senator Brett Mason
(protect) told us June 18 that although the Coalition will
lose its Senate majority July 1, it will need only one more
vote to block legislation. With 37 Coalition senators, and
37 ALP and Green senators, the ALP will need both Family
First Senator Steve Fielding and in-coming South Australian
independent Senator Nick Xenophon to pass legislation, Mason
said. He noted that both Fielding and Xenophon were
"conservatives," although he thought the Senate would
generally work constructively with the Rudd Government. Like
Rudd, Fielding and Xenophon both favor limiting gambling and
binge drinking and the two senators believe WorkChoices went
too far.
THE NEW GOVERNMENT IN TASMANIA
4. (C/NF) Tasmanian ALP MP Julie Collins (protect) told
poloffs this week that she thought new Premier David Bartlett
had started well. Although inexperienced, he was bright and
a quick study. Since he did not come from the union
movement, like the former, unpopular Premier Paul Lennon, it
was easier for him to portray his government as a fresh start
for the ALP. Collins said Bartlett was not as supportive of
the Gunns pulp mill as Lennon had been. For example, she
pointed out, no money had been allocated in the new state
budget for the infrastructure improvements Lennon had
promised Gunns.
MCCALLUM