Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CANBERRA59
2008-01-22 06:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:  

RUDD'S FOREIGN POLICY--AN OVERVIEW

Tags:  PREL AF IR IN IZ CH JA AS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7442
PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHBY #0059/01 0220603
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 220603Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8860
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 8905
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1049
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 1826
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 2914
RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 4888
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 3174
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 3070
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000059 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018
TAGS: PREL AF IR IN IZ CH JA AS
SUBJECT: RUDD'S FOREIGN POLICY--AN OVERVIEW

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel Clune. Reason: 1.4 (C an
d D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000059

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018
TAGS: PREL AF IR IN IZ CH JA AS
SUBJECT: RUDD'S FOREIGN POLICY--AN OVERVIEW

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel Clune. Reason: 1.4 (C an
d D)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will tailor his
foreign policy initiatives around three key elements: the
U.S. alliance, multilateralism, and engagement with Asia.
Rudd views the relationship with the U.S. as "core business,"
but will pursue a more independent stance on such issues as
climate change and Iraq. The new Prime Minister believes the
Howard Government rejected multilateralism for ideological
reasons and supports cooperative engagement with multilateral
institutions. The Mandarin-speaking Rudd, who served as an
Australian diplomat in Beijing, will aim to broaden the
bilateral relationship beyond the economic sphere but will be
realistic and rational in dealing with China. Australia's
ties with Japan will remain strong but Rudd will be sensitive
to Beijing,s fears that the Australia-U.S.-Japan Trilateral
Strategic Dialogue is directed against China. India,s
economic relationship with Australia is growing, but New
Delhi,s non-NPT status could complicate the relationship
over nuclear materials supply issues. Rudd will also focus
more attention on the Pacific Island countries, working
cooperatively with them and increasing aid to catalyze
economic development and address the underlying causes of
instability. END SUMMARY


2. (C/NF) This reporting is based on a review of Prime
Minister Rudd's interviews and speeches on foreign policy,
and comments made to Embassy officials by Mr. Rudd himself
and other members of his cabinet. Post has also met with
various academics on the issue of a Rudd foreign policy and
with Richard Woolcott, the Secretary of the Department of
Foreign Affairs and Trade when Rudd worked there as a
diplomat.

KEEPING A STRONG ALLIANCE


3. (C/NF) The U.S. remains Australia's most important
partner, according to Rudd, and he will continue to uphold
and strengthen the alliance. Rudd publicly promotes the U.S.
as a force for good and essential to maintaining stability in

Asia. Intelligence sharing and combined military access and
training with the U.S. are key to Australia's strategic
interests. Rudd believes the two countries can work together
on issues such as nuclear proliferation, the rise of militant
Islam, and regional pandemics. Rudd and Labor's support for
military engagement in Afghanistan demonstrates that
Australia will remain a strong ally in the war on terrorism.
Rudd, however, will take a more independent stance on some
issues and will pull back from what he has characterized as
former Prime Minister Howard's "unquestioning cheer squad"
policy. Rudd immediately ratified the Kyoto Protocol
following his election victory, and he is set to put
Australia on the international center stage of environmental
policy initiatives.

MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS


4. (C/NF) Rudd has stated that the need to strengthen
multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations, World
Bank, and APEC, is a practical reality. Before he became
Prime Minister, Rudd said that under his leadership,
Australia would pursue a course of multilateral realism. He
wants to build up and restore the integrity of the Non
Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Rudd maintains that the NPT,s
QProliferation Treaty (NPT). Rudd maintains that the NPT,s
credibility is at risk of collapsing due to North Korea's
nuclear tests and Iran's defiance of international calls to
halt its nuclear ambitions.

CHINA


5. (C/NF) Rudd will likely move to expand Australia's
relationship with China beyond the growing economic links the
two countries share now. He wants to establish a strategic
dialogue with China - an initiative of the previous Howard
government. His experience with and knowledge of political
dynamics in China will lead Rudd to take a realistic stance,
however. He does not, as some observers have suggested, fall
in the "panda hugger" category. Rudd is eager to promote
good U.S.-China relations and will likely offer to act as an
intermediary between China and the West on such issues as
climate change. Despite Rudd's positive statements on China,
he is concerned with China's nuclear and military

CANBERRA 00000059 002 OF 002


modernization programs. His approach will be based on former
Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick,s call for China to be a
"responsible stakeholder" in the international system.

THE WAR ON TERROR


6. (C/NF) Rudd views Afghanistan as a vital showdown with
international terrorists and during his December visit to
Afghanistan, he stated that Australia was "in it for the long
haul." Rudd's withdrawal of 500 troops from Iraq in mid-2008
will be done in close consultation with Washington and in a
way that he hopes will not embarrass or endanger the U.S. As
noted in earlier reporting, Rudd assured us that he will not
"pull a Zapatero" in Iraq. Australia will still maintain
about 1000 troops in and around the country. Recent
statements suggest that Rudd will not deploy the 500 troops
withdrawn from Iraq to Afghanistan, as he had previously
suggested in campaign statements.

IRAN


7. (C/NF) Rudd supports international sanctions against Iran
and considers the country a deeper concern in terms of wider
regional security. Rudd has condemned Iran's support of
terrorists, their pursuit of a nuclear program, and
statements about "wiping Israel off the map." In October, he
threatened legal proceedings against Ahmadinejad on a charge
of incitement to genocide. Since the election, experts at
DFAT have told him that such a move is not possible, but the
statement reflects his strong negative feelings toward the
Iranian leader.

JAPAN


8. (C/NF) Japan will remain one of Australia's closest friend
in the region because of Japan's trade ties, democratic
tradition and transparency but China's hypersensitivity to
encirclement will likely deter Rudd from pushing any closer
strategic relationship. He opposes a bilateral defense pact,
in view of China,s concern of perceived containment.

INDIA


9. (C/NF) On January 15 Rudd,s Foreign Minister Stephen
Smith announced that Australia will not consider selling
uranium to India absent its signing the NPT. The nuclear
issue remains a thorny problem for the left-of-center Labor
Party and will remain an obstacle to development of the
bilateral relationship. The new government is still
considering its stance on approval of the U.S.-India
agreement in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. India is an
increasingly important trading partner, being the fourth
largest importer of Australian products.


ARC OF INSTABILITY


10. (C/NF) Rudd will look to restore Australia's diplomatic
ties with countries in the so-called arc of instability,
particularly Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands
(SI). Rudd believes that a more development-oriented
approach to Australia's island neighbors will pay bigger
dividends than what he saw as the Howard Government's
over-reliance on military intervention. Relations with the
two countries have already improved, with the new SI
government extraditing Julian Moti, its former Attorney
General who is wanted in Australia on sex offenses. Rudd is
especially concerned with Chinese influence in the Pacific
and sees Australian leverage ebbing thanks to massive Chinese
aid flows. Rudd stated that Australia will increase aid to
the region to target economic development and address the
Qthe region to target economic development and address the
underlying problems behind the instability. He is likely to
maintain Australian presence in Timor-Leste and in SI under
the
auspices of RAMSI.

MCCALLUM