RUDD'S VISION FOR NEW REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CANBERRA 000585

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PINS AORC AS
SUBJECT: RUDD'S VISION FOR NEW REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel A. Clune. Reasons 1.4 (b
),(d)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Seeking to assert Australia's influence in
in the region, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has set out an
ambitious vision for a new Asia-Pacific Community to be
established by 2020, loosely modeled after the European
Union, to respond to the shift of global economic and
strategic weight to Asia. The new regional structure, which
would span the entire Asia-Pacific region to include the
United States, Japan, China, India, Indonesia and other
as-yet-unspecified states, would promote dialogue,
cooperation and action on economic, political and security
matters. PM Rudd was careful to avoid suggesting the new
architecture would replace existing regional bodies, but it
is clear the new structure is intended to overcome current
limitations, particularly on security cooperation, in APEC,
ARF, East Asia Summit, ASEAN 3 and ASEAN itself. Rudd
welcomed the evolution of the Six-Party Talks into a "wider
regional body to discuss confidence and security building
measures in Northeast Asia and beyond," and argued an
Asia-Pacific Community was consistent with President Bush's
call for a Free Trade Area for the Asia Pacific. Rollout of
the initiative appears to have been hastily managed, with
minimal internal discussions and little if any external
consultations. Domestic reaction has been largely negative,
with most local media reporting that Asian countries are
taking a cautious approach to the initiative.
END SUMMARY


2. (U) PM Kevin Rudd announced a proposal to spearhead the
creation of an Asia-Pacific Union similar to the European
Union in an address on June 5 to the Asia Society AustralAsia
Centre in Sydney. Rudd tapped veteran Richard Woolcott, an
80 year old retired diplomat who played a key role in the
creation of APEC, to serve as special envoy. The government
will dispatch him to capitals thoughout the region over the
next six months to lobby leaders to support the creation of
such a body. In typical fashion, Rudd also envisions a
high-level conference of government and non-government
representatives to advance this proposal.

KEY POINTS OF THE SPEECH


3. (U) Rudd declared there is a need to have a "vision" for
an Asia-Pacific Community and that vision will embrace an
institution which spans the entire Asia-Pacific region -
including the United States, Japan, China, India, Indonesia
and the other states of the region. Additionally, this
institution will be able to engage in the full spectrum of
dialogue, cooperation and action on economic and political
matters and future challenges related to security as well as
encourage the development of a genuine and comprehensive
sense of community. He stated, as currently configured, none
of the existing regional mechanisms are capable of achieving
these purposes.


4. (U) The Australian government sees this as the opening of
Q4. (U) The Australian government sees this as the opening of
a regional debate about where countries in the region want to
be in 2020, however, Rudd said the debate does not itself
mean the diminution of existing regional bodies such as APEC,
ASEAN, the ASEAN Forum, ASEAN Plus Three and the East Asia
Summit, although he described them as lacking the ability to
promote cooperation across the entire region. He suggested
they will either continue in their own right or become the
building blocks of an Asia-Pacific Community.


5. (U) Citing European integration, Rudd pointed out there
are lessons to be learned from that effort, but creation of
an Asia-Pacific Community would present a unique set of
challenges specific to the region: diversity of political
systems and economic structures, levels of development,
religious beliefs, languages and cultures make a European
copy cat approach impossible. He hopes this effort will

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capture the spirit of the European Union by resolving to
build prosperity and a common sense of a security community.


6. (U) The Government has a foreign policy goal of
comprehensive engagement with Asia. Rudd stated, "the speed
and scope of changes in our region means we need to act now.
Ours must be an open region - we need to link into the world,
not shut ourselves off from it". This includes continuing
support of President Bush's call for the development of an
Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area.

IDEA IS RUDD'S BABY


7. (C/NF) Foreign Policy Advisor to the PM Scott Dewar told
Econcouns June 5 that Prime Minister Rudd put a great deal of
time and energy into the speech and that the idea of a new
grouping is "his baby." Noting that he had completed a first
draft "last week," Dewar said that the final version had been
extensively rewritten, with the PM working on each successive
version. Dewar said that Australia had previewed the idea
"in Washington," as well as with Japan, the ROK, Indonesia,
the PRC, India and Peru (in its capacity as APEC host). No
one objected, he said, adding that the Indonesians expressed
interest in further discussion during PM Rudd's upcoming
visit.


8. (C/NF) Rudd believes that current Asian architecture
suffers from a variety of problems, particularly the lack of
a forum involving the key Asia-Pacific players to discuss
security issues in a meaningful way, according to Dewar.
Stressing that Australia has no particular view on the
specific membership other than it must involve the United
States, Japan, India, Korea, China, Indonesia, Singapore,
Malaysia "and other Southeast Asian partners," Dewar said
that Rudd believes that this is question to be settled in the
longer term. The same goes for the relationship of a new
structure to existing groupings such as the ASEAN Regional
Forum (AFR),APEC, ASEAN plus Three and the East Asia Summit.
The goal is in no way to subsume or replace those
organizations, Dewar insisted, though he acknowledged that
the proposed Asia Pacific Community would overlap with the
ARF and APEC. Though some may see Rudd's speech as laying
out a body similar to APEC but with India and dealing with
security issues, Dewar said that Australia recognizes that
the questions of membership and mandate cannot be decided now
and will require considerable discussion over some time.

9. (C/NF) The PM believes that the Howard Government made a
mistake in not continuing the Hawke-Keating Governments'
efforts to shape regional institutions. Explaining that Rudd
thinks that the past ten years were a "missed opportunity"
for Australia to help shape Asia's evolving architecture,
Dewar said that Rudd wants to build on Australia's role in
shepherding the creation of APEC. The PM sees this as an
appropriate role for a "middle power," as there would be
suspicion of the goals behind such a proposal if it came from
Qsuspicion of the goals behind such a proposal if it came from
China, Japan or the United States.


10. (C/NF) When asked about the implications for Taiwan,
Dewar said that there had been considerable thought and
discussion of the question in recognition of the fact that
Beijing is likely to object to Taiwan's inclusion in any new
regional grouping, Dewar said that Australia recognizes
Taiwan's importance in the region and does not want to see
its status downgraded. Dealing with the PRC and Taiwan will
be a challenge for any regional body, he said, adding that
much will depend on the evolution of cross-strait relations
in the coming years. However, Australia does not believe
that concern about Taiwan's status is a good reason to put
off creating an Asia-Pacific grouping that can effectively
address security issues.


11. (C/NF) Asked about Latin American membership, Dewar said
that while some Asian countries are likely to oppose the
Latins, Australia assumes that U.S. membership means Latin

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American membership. In passing, he commented that "we
assume that the Latins would be part of the package with the
United States." While some Asian countries would prefer not
to have Latin American membership and that it is much less of
a priority for Australia than the United States, Dewar did
not see it as a major problem.

NEGATIVE DOMESTIC REACTION


12. (U) The proposal was met with immediate criticism by two
former Labour Prime Ministers, Bob Hawke who was instrumental
in setting up APEC and Paul Keating who worked to extend it
as a forum where regional leaders have regular meetings.
Both stated the proposal won't work if it uses a model
similar to the EU. Keating says a regional community is
unachieveable and that APEC should remain the key regional
power - Rudd insists he seeks to build on APEC.


13. (U) Former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer labelled the
plan simplistic and meaningless. "This is a stunt to suggest
that, well, he's got some different idea. It's not a
different idea - it's a good idea, but it's the same idea as
John Howard had and Prime Minister (Yasuo) Fukuda of Japan
has and so the list goes on," Downer told the media.


14. (U) Opposition foreign affairs spokesman Andrew Robb
describe Rudd's proposal as presumptuous and half-baked.
"There's absolutely no detail, it does start to smack of a
stunt designed to deflect attention from the damage the Prime
Minister has done to our relationships with Japan and India.
Strong bilateral relationships are the foundation of a strong
regional structure, not the other way around, so his priority
must be to get our bilateral relationships in the best
possible order."

MINIMAL CONSULTATIONS


15. (C) Evidence suggests Rudd's initiative was hastily
rolled out, with minimal consultations. Most working level
contacts within the GOA seem to have been caught off guard by
the PM's announcement, with many embassies advising that they
had received notification immediately before the speech and
had not been consulted on the concept. Even Richard
Woolcott, a distinguished former Secretary of the Department
of Foreign Affairs and Trade, only learned of his role as the
special envoy to carry the initiative forward some three
hours before PM Rudd's address. He told us June 5 the PM's
senior advisor had telephoned him at about 4 p.m. the
previous day to ask if he would consent to spearhead the
initiative, and when he remonstrated that he wanted an
opportunity to discuss it further, was advised his name was
already in the PM's pre-printed speech, leaving him no choice
but to accede. Except for a brief exchange with PM Rudd at
the speech venue, Wolcott said he was still waiting to get a
full briefing from Rudd and his staff.

COMMENT


16. (C/NF) Rudd's remarks on regional architecture over the
past year or so, contain oblique references to addressing
limitations of existing architecture, but he has not
Qlimitations of existing architecture, but he has not
previously hinted at this bold idea. With his election in
November 2007, barely six months ago, Rudd seems to be in a
hurry not only to demonstrate Australia's regional influence
as a "middle power," but also to begin to establish his
legacy. It is not surprising that Rudd reached out to
Woolcott, a former mentor during Rudd's brief diplomatic
career and a special envoy of Prime Minister Bob Hawke twenty
years earlier in promoting another Australian initiation: the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The notion of an EU-style
Asia Pacific Community that can smoothly manage the myriad
political, economic and security interests all the major
players in this vast region seems a considerable stretch of
the imagination, but reflects the Australian view of the need

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to improve on the present disparate set of organizations.

MCCALLUM