AUSMIN 2008: SESSION III (TURKEY,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 CANBERRA 000179

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2018
TAGS: OVIP GATES ROBERT OVIP NEGROPONTE JOHN PARM
MOPS, KNNP, MARR, PREL, AS
SUBJECT: AUSMIN 2008: SESSION III (TURKEY,
NONPROLIFERATION/ARMS CONTROL, REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE,
SOUTHEAST ASIA, PACIFIC ISLANDS AND NEW ZEALAND)

Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum, Jr., for reasons 1.4 (b),
(d).


1. (U) February 23, 2008; Parliament House, Canberra,
Australia.

SUMMARY
--------------

2. (S) The third session of the U.S.-Australia Ministerial
(AUSMIN) consultations included a brief update from the U.S.
on the Turkish incursion into northern Iraq and the status of
prospects for further progress in the arms control and
nonproliferation areas. Discussion focused mostly on
Southeast Asia and Oceania, however, including on the need
for a more effective, inclusive regional security
architecture. Key points that emerged from the Australian
foreign and defense ministers included: 1) Australia's
interest in developing regional mechanisms to curb small arms
in the Pacific region; 2) reiteration of the GOA's strong
desire to be included in any regional security framework
emerging from the Six-Party Talks; 3) commitment by the new
Australian government to the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue,
but not to a Quadrilateral Dialogue with India; 4) ongoing
concern about terrorism and stability in southern Thailand
and the Philippines, in contrast to Australia's success in
its counterterrorism cooperation with Indonesia; and 4)
appreciation for the U.S. decision to expand intelligence
sharing with New Zealand. This is the third of four cables
reporting on AUSMIN 2008. End summary.


3. (U) Participants:

UNITED STATES
Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates

SIPDIS
Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte
Ambassador Robert D. McCallum, Jr.
Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Admiral Timothy J. Keating, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command
Acting Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs
Stephen Mull
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian & Pacific Security
Affairs James Shinn
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian & Pacific
Affairs Glyn Davies
Tim Davis, Carol Hanlon, Aleisha Woodward, John Crowley,
Jessica Powers (Notetakers)

AUSTRALIA
Minister for Foreign Affairs Stephen Smith
Minister for Defence Joel Fitzgibbon
Michael L,Estrange, Secretary of the Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade
Nick Warner, Secretary of the Department of Defence
Air Chief Marshall Angus Houston, Chief of the Defence Force
Duncan Lewis, Deputy Secretary of the Department of Prime
Minister and Cabinet
Peter Varghese, Director General of the Office of National
Assessments
Dennis Richardson, Australian Ambassador to the United States
Berenice Owen-Jones, Alistair McEachern, Alanna Mackay,
Antony Horrocks, Marina Tsirbas, Amanda Pickrell, John
QAntony Horrocks, Marina Tsirbas, Amanda Pickrell, John
Feakes, Peter West (notetakers).

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Turkish Incursion into Iraq
--------------


4. (C) At Australia's request, Secretary Gates briefed on
current Turkish incursions into Iraq, disputing media claims
of approximately 10,000 Turkish soldiers crossing the border

CANBERRA 00000179 002 OF 004


as closer to one-third of that number. The question, Gates
said, is whether Turkey can target precisely enough to
minimize civilian casualties. In addition, such border
crossings would only work for the short term, and the
underlying causes of problems needed to be dealt with.
Deputy Secretary Negroponte opined the Turks may be trying to
play one Kurdish faction against another and the Turks really
need to come to terms with Kurdish President Barzani.

--------------
Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
--------------


5. (C) FM Smith began the discussion by explaining the Rudd
government came to power committed to do more through
multilateral fora such as the United Nations, but his two
days in New York in January 2008 convinced Smith any change
at the UN is glacial and there is currently no enthusiasm at
the UN for disarmament issues. He indicated Australia is
looking into regional mechanisms to reduce small arms in the
Pacific region, and asked for ideas on what Australia can do
further to encourage disarmament and non-proliferation.


6. (C) In response to Smith's inquiry into the possibility of
further nuclear weapons reductions agreements between the
United States and Russia, Secretary Gates informed the
Australians we would like to achieve a nuclear reductions
agreement with Russia before President Putin leaves office in
May 2008; if the two Presidents could agree, it could be done
quickly. While the United States had originally refused to
consider a legally binding treaty, as Russia preferred, the
U.S. is now willing to consider such a treaty as long as it
was modeled on the Moscow agreement (shorter and simpler)
rather than the phonebook-sized START agreement. However,
issues remain, such as how to count nuclear warheads; the
Russians want to count all warheads, while we would prefer to
limit it to deployed warheads.


7. (C) Acting A/S Mull thanked the Australians for their
collaboration on the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI),
noting this summer will be the fifth anniversary of the
initiative, which now includes 85 countries. In response to
Mull's concern that not many Southeast Asian countries have
signed onto PSI, Smith opined the reluctance results from
concerns about China. Smith expressed appreciation for U.S.
cooperation on MANPADS, and Mull expressed appreciation for
Australia's attempts to "introduce realism" into the Oslo
Process on cluster munitions. Mull requested continued
Australian assistance in working to move the issue back to
the CCW.

--------------
Q --------------
Regional Architecture
--------------


8. (C) Deputy Secretary Negroponte argued the fundamental
problem with Asian regional architecture is, while there are
different fora for different purposes with overlapping and
competing agenda, there simply are not effective regional
fora for political and political/military discussions like
Europe has developed. Secretary L'Estrange asserted
different regional powers backing different organizations
(United States and Australia focusing on APEC, China on
ASEAN 3, and Japan the EAS) exacerbated the problem,
especially since APEC is focused on economic rather than
security issues and limited by the fact that both Taiwan and
China are members. DG Varghese contended the greatest risk
is China, which has an obvious agenda, would push the
development of the ASEAN 3 faster than other organizations,
to the detriment of United States' and Australia's interests.

CANBERRA 00000179 003 OF 004


L'Estrange also shared the Australian position that any
"plus" to the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Forum should be
limited to ASEAN nations' traditional security partners.


9. (C) FM Smith, who called current regional architecture
confusing and confused, opined there is a real need for one
organization to include the United States, Australia, India,
China, Japan, Korea, and Russia, hinting India should be
included in APEC. At the same time, Smith was certain there
was "no future" for the U.S.-Australia-Japan-India Quad, for
which, Smith claimed, there was now little enthusiasm in
Tokyo or New Delhi. On the other hand, Smith said Australia
remains firmly committed to pursuing the U.S.-Australia-Japan
Trilateral Strategic Dialogue at both senior officials' and
ministerial levels.


10. (C) Smith reiterated Australia's desire to be part of any
security framework growing out of the Six-Party Talks (6PT)
process. Negroponte acknowledged Australia's interest, but
indicated any 6PT successor would depend on progress in
denuclearizing and perhaps even restoring peace to the Korean
Peninsula. Ambassador Richardson shared a conversation he
had had with former State Department Counselor Phillip
Zelikow, in which Zelikow asked Richardson why Australia is
so interested in Northeast Asia and not as keenly interested
in the Middle East when the two regions are geographically
equidistant from Australia. Richardson opined the near
invasion by Japan during WWII made Northeast Asia
psychologically much closer to Asia than actual distance
belies.

--------------
Southeast Asia
--------------


11. (S) FM Smith outlined Australia's efforts to deepen the
Australia-Indonesia relationship, which, while good, needs to
move beyond simply government to government to people to
people. Air Chief Marshal Houston agreed Australia's mil-mil
relationship with Indonesia was good, citing in particular
the "spectacular success" the two countries have had together
in destroying the operational capability of Jemaah Islamiah
(JI),efforts to cut supply lines to terrorist training
camps, and achievements through the Jakarta Centre for Law
Enforcement Cooperation (JCLEC). Secretary L'Estrange opined
the Indonesian president's position is institutionally weak,
while DG Varghese commented Australian intelligence analysts
complain Indonesia has become boring and the prospect of
Indonesia returning to military rule is very low.


12. (C) Although Air Chief Marshal Houston said the
Australia-Malaysia mil-mil relationship was good, in large
part due to the multilateral confidence building arrangement
Qpart due to the multilateral confidence building arrangement
with Singapore, Malaysia, New Zealand, the UK, and Australia,
Smith claimed Australia could do better with Malaysia and
Singapore. (No additional details on how or why were
discussed.)


13. (S) ASD Shinn thanked Australia for the valuable
intelligence received on events in the Philippines and
described Ambassador Kristie Kenney as "a powerful tool" in
U.S. work there. Smith indicated Australia is concerned
about counterterrorism and stability in the Philippines and
southern Thailand. Varghese echoed: Thailand will "go
through a rough patch" when the King dies.


14. (C) Both sides agreed to continue supporting UN Special
Envoy Gambari in his efforts in Burma, commenting we would
all like to see more progress. Smith singled out China as
one who should do more, while Negroponte argued ASEAN should

CANBERRA 00000179 004 OF 004


take action instead of just talking about the issue. Shinn
argued actions taken by the U.S. and Australian Treasury
Departments was beginning to have an impact.


15. (S) Deputy Secretary Negroponte emphasized the United
States' reliance on Australia for analysis of events in
Southeast Asia.

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Pacific Islands and New Zealand
--------------


16. (S) FM Smith indicated Australia has much better
relations with Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands
(SI) than just a few months ago, with "a genuine feeling of a
fresh approach." Smith also shared his sense that PNG and SI
are keen to do something on Fiji. Secretary L'Estrange
argued the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) would not fracture
over Fiji at this point, saying "If it was going to, it would
have last year. It won't crack now." PDAS Davies briefed on
his upcoming visit to Fiji, indicating his primary message
would be one of support for the PIF and insistence that
interim PM Bainimarama live up to his commitment to hold
elections by March 2009. DG Varghese shared Australia's
analysis that land forces in Fiji are not yet prepared to
move against Bainimarama and opined the current coup has a
much smaller support base (Indo-Fijians, Bainimarama, and the
Mara family) than previous coups.


17. (S) Smith emphasized the crucial role New Zealand plays
in the Pacific: "If we are to succeed Australia and New
Zealand have to be in lock step." Fortunately, he said, they
are at one on all the key issues. In this context, Smith
expressed appreciation for the recent U.S. decisions to
expand intelligence sharing with New Zealand. While this was
important to New Zealand, it would also benefit Australia and
New Zealand as they fulfill their responsibilities in the
Pacific.


18. (U) Secretary Gates, PM Acting Assistant Secretary Mull,
and EAP Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Davies cleared
on this cable.

MCCALLUM