Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CANBERRA133
2008-02-14 07:36:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:  

SCENE SETTER FOR AUSMIN 2008

Tags:  PREL MARR OTRA AS 
pdf how-to read a cable
O 140736Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8985
INFO CJCS WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY
S E C R E T CANBERRA 000133 

SIPDIS


NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY NEGROPONTE
DEFENSE FOR SECRETARY GATES AND CJCS ADMIRAL MULLEN
PACOM FOR ADMIRAL KEATING
FROM AMBASSADOR ROBERT D. MCCALLUM JR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR OTRA AS
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR AUSMIN 2008

Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b)(d).

SUMMARY
-------
S E C R E T CANBERRA 000133

SIPDIS


NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY NEGROPONTE
DEFENSE FOR SECRETARY GATES AND CJCS ADMIRAL MULLEN
PACOM FOR ADMIRAL KEATING
FROM AMBASSADOR ROBERT D. MCCALLUM JR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR OTRA AS
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR AUSMIN 2008

Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b)(d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) AUSMIN 2008 takes place just three months after the
Australian Labor Party (ALP) government of Kevin Rudd swept
to power, decisively defeating John Howard and his
Liberal/National coalition after eleven years in office.
While domestic issues such as workers' rights, climate
change, health and education resonated with voters, fatigue
with the Howard government and a desire for change ultimately
propelled Rudd to victory. Rudd, a former diplomat and
longtime Shadow Foreign Minister, inherited an economy in its
17th straight year of growth, with unemployment at a 30-year
low, and enviable federal budget surpluses. While foreign
affairs did not play a dominant role in the campaign, Rudd
pledged to withdraw combat troops from Iraq in mid-2008 and
to be a more independent voice in international affairs,
adroitly tapping into the widespread public perception that
Australia was too closely aligned with U.S. policies.
Nonetheless, the ALP has always maintained its commitment to
Australia's alliance with
the United States, and Rudd moved quickly to reach out to the
United States and send his key officials to engage with their
USG counterparts.


2. (SBU) The Rudd government has ordered a comprehensive
review of defense policy, including review of some major
defense acquisitions from the United States, slowing or
postponing bilateral cooperation in some areas, such as
missile defense. While the review may not be completed for
some months, we expect the Rudd government to exhibit strong
continuity in foreign policy issues of strategic interest to
us, and to parallel the U.S. approach and thinking on major
global challenges. He is likely to be strongly supportive on
tough arms control and nonproliferation issues, including
denuclearization of North Korea and Iran. Rudd has declared
Australia will not export uranium to India because it has not

signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. He has not yet
decided, however, whether Australia will support an exception
for the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement in the Nuclear
Suppliers Group and IAEA. We can expect Australia's
continued contributions to military operations targeting the
Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and a continued
non-combat role in Iraq. The small size of its military -
52,000 personnel - and demands of deployments elsewhere, most
recently in response to the attempted coup in East Timor,
mean Australia will likely be unable to increase the level of
its deployments for some time to come. Despite this, we
are confident Australia will remain one of our closest allies
and most reliable security partners for the foreseeable
future. End Summary.

U.S. Alliance
--------------

3. (SBU) The Australian Labor Party (ALP) takes credit for
establishing the alliance with the United States during World
War II, which ultimately led to the 1951 Australia-New
Zealand-United States (ANZUS) Treaty. The ALP continues to
include support for the U.S. alliance as one of the three
pillars of the party platform. Rudd has made clear
Australia's commitment to the alliance, and was quick to
reach out to the United States in his election victory speech
Qreach out to the United States in his election victory speech
- the only foreign country he mentioned. He met with the
U.S. Ambassador before meeting other foreign envoys, and his
key Cabinet ministers - Foreign Minister Stephen Smith and
Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon - met Secretary Rice and
Secretary Gates as their first order of business within weeks

SIPDIS
of being sworn in. Rudd stressed in his campaign that he
would be more independent from the United States than his
predecessor, however, and has already flagged some key policy
differences.

Iraq
--------------

4. (C/NF) Rudd and his defense and foreign affairs ministers
have already begun to engage with their U.S. and UK
counterparts to discuss withdrawal of approximately 515
combat troops comprising the Overwatch Battle Group from
southern Iraq in mid-2008, while leaving in place

approximately 1,000 defense personnel, including a 100-man
security detachment for its diplomatic mission in Baghdad,
and naval and air patrol assets based in neighboring
countries that support operations in both Iraq and
Afghanistan. While the Australian combat troops have a
passive, back-up role to Iraqi security forces, rather than
an active combat role, they have served as an important
symbol of Coalition unity and of Australia's support of the
U.S. in the Global War on Terror. Beyond the redeployment of
the combat element, the Australians plan to remain engaged in
Iraq in reconstruction and other non-combat roles, and the
Cabinet will soon consider propsals for additional training
and technical assistance. In the meantime, the GOA has begun
working with the U.S. and Iraq on deployment requirements
after the current UN mandate lapses.

Afghanistan
--------------

5. (C/NF) Unlike Iraq, there has been bipartisan support in
Australia up to now for its troop commitment in Afghanistan,
and the Rudd government has reaffirmed that it plans to
remain in Afghanistan for the "long haul." Support for
Australia's combat role in Afghanistan is linked in part to
the presence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, who trained bombers
that killed 202 civilians, including 88 Australians, in Bali
in 2002, as well as to the impact of the Afghan drug trade on
Australia. The Australian government is considering
deploying an Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT) to
help train the Afghan National Army and additional civilian
development assistance, but is not currently contemplating
increasing its combat forces. Three Australian soldiers have
been killed in Afghanistan in recent months; Australian
public opinion may begin to turn against a military role in
Afghanistan if casualties increase, especially if NATO
countries continue to show reluctance to fight in south
Afghanistan.

Climate Change
--------------

6. (SBU) One area where the Rudd government's policy diverges
somewhat from ours is climate change, a topic that resonates
strongly in Australia where many see a direct causal link
with a series of recent, very severe droughts. The United
States is widely - and mistakenly - viewed in Australia as
being opposed to meaningful greenhouse gas reductions. PM
Rudd ratified the Kyoto Protocol within hours of being sworn
in, a largely symbolic and cost-free gesture, as Australia is
already meeting its Kyoto targets. He also attended the Bali
meeting in December 2007 where he commited to working out a
post-2012 climate change framework. Australia's position on
the post-2012 framework is close to that of the United
States. Rudd has pledged that Australia would not sign a
post-Kyoto framework that does not include commitments to
reduction targets by developing countries such as China and
India. Under Rudd, Australia is committed to a cap and trade
system and plans to set emissions targets in six months, with
a system up and running by 2010.


7. (SBU) The government has set a target of using renewable
energy for 20 percent of its energy needs by 2020. Both
initiatives will increase the price of energy, but economists
estimate that, as a result, GDP growth would decrease by less
Qestimate that, as a result, GDP growth would decrease by less
than one-half of one percent. Rudd believes in the
importance of clean coal technology to the global effort and
the special responsibility of Australia, the world's largest
coal exporter, to develop and share those technologies with
countries that depend on coal for a substantial part of their
energy needs, such as China and India. He would prefer to
concentrate on "getting coal right" instead of developing a
nuclear power industry. The Prime Minister recently told a
U.S. Congressional delegation the one missing element in the
global effort to cope with climate change was U.S.
leadership. He believes that if U.S. would commit itself to
achievable emissions targets, it would prevent China and
India from citing lack of U.S. participation as an excuse for
refusing to make commitments in a post-Kyoto agreement.

China
--------------

8. (C/NF) An important dynamic in the U.S. relationship with
a new Labor government is China. Rudd shares our position

that China needs to be encouraged to be a responsible
stakeholder in the international system, and he has
previously expressed support for the U.S. in any conflict
over Taiwan. Rudd views the Chinese export market as a
critical component of Australia's growth now and well into
the future. PM Rudd's background as a Mandarin-speaking
former diplomat who served in Beijing have led some to
believe that he might be overly sensitive towards China, but
he has assured the Ambassador that he does not view China
through "rose-colored glasses." Early signs are that the
Rudd government will be tough or tougher than its predecessor
on China's military modernization, transparency, and human
rights, judging by Rudd's statements and the inaugural
Strategic Dialogue with China on February 4-5. Rudd opposes
entering into a defense pact with Japan and to continuing
quadrilateral discussions between the U.S., Australia, Japan
and India in part because of Chinese sensitivities.

Defense Cooperation and National Security Policy
--------------

9. (SBU) Australia is a large consumer of U.S. defense
hardware and technology, consistent with its objective of
interoperability. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) in 2007 were
$3 billion. Australia has selected the Aegis Combat Control
System for its three air warfare destroyers that will come
into service in 2014, 2016, and 2017, respectively. The
F/A-18 aircraft is the principal combat aircraft of the Royal
Australian Air Force (RAAF),backed by the U.S.-built F-111
strike aircraft. Pending review by the Rudd government,
Australia will acquire 24 Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet
fighters to maintain an interim strike capability between the
phase-out of the F-111s by 2010, and the projected
acquisition of up to 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft
during 2013-2020. If approved in the review, deliveries of
the Super Hornet would commence in 2010. The RAAF has
received three of four C-17 strategic airlift aircraft
purchased, and is acquiring Boeing's Airborne Early Warning
and Control system (referred to as Wedgetail). Recent sales
to the Royal Australian Army include the M1A1 tank, as well
as Hellfire and JAVELIN missiles. Negotiations were held in
January on the U.S.-Australia Defense Cooperation Treaty's
Implementing Arrangements, although the parallel U.K.
agreement leads any progress on the Australian document.
Australian industry hopes implementation will streamline and
increase defense technology exchange and trade. The
Australian Defence Materiel Organisation estimates a 50
percent reduction in export licenses required following
treaty implementation. Australia is purchasing a Wideband
Global SATCOM (WGS) satellite that will be incorporated into
the U.S. DOD's WGS five-satellite constellation.


10. (S/REL AUS) President Bush and then Prime Minister
Howard agreed during the September 2007 APEC meeting to
strengthen combined capabilities and U.S. military access to
Australia, referred to as Enhanced Defense Cooperation, an
agenda item at the upcoming AUSMIN. Both sides subsequently
agreed to focus on three areas: enhancing the Joint Combined
Training Capability; prepositioning equipment for
QTraining Capability; prepositioning equipment for
Humanitarian Assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR)
operations in the region (an MOU may be ready for signature
at AUSMIN); and strengthening Intelligence, Surveillance and
Reconnaissance (ISR) access and cooperation.

Other Issues
--------------

11. (SBU) Finally, Australia under Rudd will likely continue
to be a strong ally of the United States on
counterproliferation and arms control issues. He is likely
to continue Australia's strong support for our position on
the North Korea and Iran nuclear issues. He has announced
his opposition to exporting Australian uranium to India
because it would weaken the NPT, which India has not signed.
However, he has not yet decided whether to support consensus
in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the IAEA on granting an
exception for India, as a non-NPT member, which is a
precondition to concluding the U.S.-India civil nuclear
agreement with the United States.

MCCALLUM