AUSTRALIAN RESPONSE: CHINA MILITARY POWER, U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001246

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/ANP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018
TAGS: MARR PREL AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN RESPONSE: CHINA MILITARY POWER, U.S.
DOD 2008 REPORT TO CONGRESS

REF: STATE 20659

Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Australian views and efforts on Chinese
military modernization largely mirror those of the U.S.
according to John Quinn, Assistant Secretary, Strategic
Issues and Intelligence Branch, Department of Foreign Affairs
and Trade. Quinn reiterated to Poloffs on December 9 the
need for greater transparency coupled with responsible
engagement as the most important issues for global Chinese
relations. He suggested that Australia may be more forward
leaning about engaging the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in
regional Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR)
efforts than the U.S., while acknowledging the need to
balance the risks of exposing the Chinese to modernizations
that would fill gaps in their military. Quinn emphasized the
value of continuing U.S. bilateral discussions on the order
of the "Crawford Talks" (NOTE: These were held in Canberra
on the margins of the POL-MIL meetings in October 2008, under
the chairmanship of OSD Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
for East Asia, David Sedney. End Note.). He pointed out
that ineffective responses to the global financial crisis or
exacerbated responses to internal political pressures could
disrupt China's normally pragmatic view and highlighted the
need for a direct link between the U.S. and China to manage
crisis situations. Quinn expressed hope that there would be
continuity on U.S. Chinese policy under the new U.S.
administration. End summary.


2. (C/NF) In a formal response to the 2008 U.S. DOD Report
to Congress on China's Military Power, Assistant Secretary
John Quinn advised the Embassy that Australian views and
efforts largely mirror those of the U.S. He reiterated the
need for greater transparency coupled with responsible
engagement as the most important issues for global Chinese
relations. Quinn noted Australian bilateral engagements with
China during 2008 at the Ministerial level in February and
through defense talks in July. He characterized these
discussions as "frank and open". Quinn observed that FM
Smith pointedly requested greater transparency from China on
its military modernization intent and accounting. Quinn
noted Australia may be more forward leaning than the U.S. in
its efforts to actively engage the PLA in regional HA/DR
activities, but acknowledged the risks from additional
Chinese exposure to other military capabilities. He also
said that Australia seeks to increase Chinese engagement in
ASEAN activities in Southeast Asia. On the other hand, the
GOA remains concerned about China's support for Sudanese
leadership and its unhelpful role in Zimbabwe. Quinn noted
that China's participation in the Six Party Talks has been
helpful and expressed hope that the next administration would
continue to engage China as a responsible stakeholder in
these discussions.


3. (C/NF) The intentions of China's power projection
capabilities remain obscured by the lack of accurate and
timely reporting, Quinn observed, noting that the annual
military expenditures report China promised to the UN
Secretary General has yet to be produced. In bilateral
discussions, Australia suggested China address these issues
in its forthcoming Defense White Paper. Quinn noted that
Australian intelligence reporting concurs with U.S. estimates
of Chinese defense spending at twice the reported levels. He
remarked that China's modernization of its nuclear forces
Qremarked that China's modernization of its nuclear forces
creates command and control uncertainty, shifting from
centrally controlled, silo-based weapons to mobile weapons
under local command. He also noted advances made in the last
ten years to accelerated the transfer of dual use technology
between the civil and military arenas. With many young
Chinese drawn into more lucrative private enterprise
positions, Quinn questioned who may be currently joining the
PLA, the composition of its future leadership, and the impact
of corruption on military modernization efforts. He
indicated that China's long-term military agenda remains
unclear and that Australia continues to seek greater
transparency through its bilateral discussions.


4. (C/NF) Quinn emphasized the utility of continuing U.S.
bilateral forums on China in 2009. He mentioned the benefits
of the "Crawford Talks" several times and indicated a strong
desire to continue these (NOTE: These were held in Canberra
on the margins of the POL-MIL meetings in October 2008, under
the chairmanship of OSD Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
for East Asia, David Sedney. End Note.).


5. (C/NF) Quinn identified the danger of potential future

disruptions to China's normally pragmatic approach, which
could result from ineffective responses to the global
financial crisis, exacerbated responses to internal political
pressures, or a confrontation over maritime "pushing and
shoving". He commented that potential disruptions such as
these highlight the importance of a direct telephone links
between the U.S. and China to provide a safety valve for both
countries to avoid dangerous misunderstandings.


6. (C/NF) Quinn provided a documented response which has
been scanned and sent by classified email to Aleisha
Woodward, Australia Desk Officer, EAP/ANP.

MCCALLUM