Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CANBERRA1244
2008-12-09 06:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:  

POLLING GETS WORSE FOR LIBERAL PARTY

Tags:  PGOV AS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1567
PP RUEHPT
DE RUEHBY #1244 3440613
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090613Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0642
INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 5819
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 4091
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 4029
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
UNCLAS CANBERRA 001244 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: POLLING GETS WORSE FOR LIBERAL PARTY

REF: A) CANBERRA 1206 B) CANBERRA 1222

UNCLAS CANBERRA 001244

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: POLLING GETS WORSE FOR LIBERAL PARTY

REF: A) CANBERRA 1206 B) CANBERRA 1222


1. (U) SUMMARY: A Newspoll released December 9 indicates
that the Opposition is going backwards since it switched
leaders to Malcolm Turnbull in September. Support for the
Coalition is at its lowest level since June. Since the last
Newspoll two weeks ago, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has
introduced its comprehensive workplace relations bill
(further winding back the Howard government's unpopular
laws). In addition, Shadow Treasurer Julie Bishop has been
under fire from the media, the Coalition appears split and
disorganized, and the Government has vigorously promoted its
economic stimulus package, which will be delivered this week.
The economy is the number one political issue currently and
the voters appear satisfied with Rudd's handling of it. END
SUMMARY.

WORSE THAN NELSON


2. (U) The Newspoll, conducted December 5-7, has the ALP
extending its two-party preferred lead by 8 points to 59-41.
Rudd has increased his lead over Malcolm Turnbull as
preferred Prime Minister to 47 points (66-19). The last
Newspoll conducted when Brendan Nelson led the Coalition had
the ALP leading 55-45, and Nelson trailing by 46 points as
preferred PM. Rudd's satisfaction rating, at 70 percent, has
risen to the second highest on record.

WHY A SURGE FOR RUDD?


3. (SBU) PM Rudd has benefited politically from a number of
factors. The economy is dominating political debate,
particularly the government's efforts to address the global
financial crisis (ref A). Turnbull's attack on Rudd's
performance has been undermined by media speculation, some of
it fed by Liberal MPs, about Julie Bishop's handling of the
Shadow Treasurer's job. The ALP introduced its substantial
and centrist industrial relations bill, using it is an
opportunity to remind voters of the Howard government's
unpopular WorkChoices laws and drawing attention to the
Liberals division on the extent to which they should support
the ALP's rollback (ref B) . At the end of this year's last
parliamentary session on December 4, six Coalition Senators
(including four Nationals) voted against the Coalition, and
many abstained, when their leadership changed its initial
opposition and decided to support the Government's
infrastructure bill. This caused tension within the
Coalition between Liberals and Nationals, and several
Coalition Senators publicly admitted confusion over their
side's Senate tactics. The Government has been heavily
promoting its economic stimulus package - especially the $8.6
billion in payments that will be made to pensioners, carers
and parents this week.

LIBERALS CALL FOR UNITY


4. (U) Some Liberals attributed the ALP's poll surge to the
Government's economic stimulus payments issued this week,
however others conceded that perceived disunity in the
Coalition was a factor. Key Liberal leader and tactician
Andrew Robb said "the emergence of disunity within the
coalition is working strongly against us." Turnbull said
"disunity is not a good look politically," and even former
leader Nelson, who Turnbull replaced, urged the Liberals to
"get behind Malcolm."


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The ALP and Rudd have comfortably won every
Newspoll since the election just about a year ago. There was
a dip in Rudd's popularity when he was criticized for cutting
back payments to the elderly and when the media turned on him
over a perceived lack of a "big picture" agenda. The global
financial crisis, however, has given his government direction
and the chance for Rudd to look like a leader. Although Rudd
Qand the chance for Rudd to look like a leader. Although Rudd
is regularly criticized for his wooden and overly
intellectual speaking style, the voters appear to be
comfortable with him. This latest poll is a wake-up call for
the Liberals that they can ill-afford a repeat of the
disunity of the 1980s, and confirmation that they have made
little headway in 2008 against Rudd.

MCCALLUM